Keys to victory and matchups to watch for Fresno State’s football game at Nevada
UPDATE: Kickoff for Saturday’s game has been moved up 90 minutes to 6 p.m., the Mountain West Conference announced Friday afternoon. The game is still on Fox Sports 2.
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Nevada went in with a different plan last week at Hawaii. It ran the ball on its first four plays and eight times in a 13-play opening drive, almost a complete 180 for an offense that had put the ball in the air on 63.2% of its plays in the first quarter.
Hawaii, which was intent on not allowing wideout Romeo Doubs to make plays down field as he had against everyone else on the Wolf Pack schedule, kept prodding them in that direction. It gave Nevada light boxes to run into, the Wolf Pack did, and it made sense to do so even with quarterback Carson Strong and the top passing offense in the Mountain West.
Hawaii went into that game ranked 11th in the conference in rushing defense and Nevada has a bruising downhill back in Toa Taua, who is averaging 6.1 yards on 72 rushing plays.
It also has a solid change-up back in Devonte Lee.
“We ball-controlled and tried to keep the ball away from them,” Nevada coach Jay Norvell said.
Saturday at Nevada (6 p.m., FS2), it’s Fresno State that is ranked 11th in the conference in rushing defense and it might have been 12th and last had UNLV not just allowed Wyoming to rush for 399 yards and six touchdowns on 57 plays.
The Bulldogs are allowing 5.3 yards per play and 228.3 per game, more than the 5.1 and 226.6 Hawaii was allowing. Too, Fresno State has a different but more potent and productive offense than the Rainbow Warriors, and another game of keepaway wouldn’t be the worst idea.
So will Norvell and offensive coordinator Matt Mumme go at the Bulldogs the same way they started at Hawaii?
Taua definitely could be a problem, which is a family tradition.
His older brother Vai Taua, now the running backs coach at Nevada, gutted the Bulldogs from 2008 to 2010, rushing for 531 yards at 8.0 yards per play and scoring six touchdowns.
Nevada won all three of those games.
Toa Taua last season rushed for 135 yards on 20 plays against Fresno State (6.8 ypp) and scored the winning touchdown in a 35-28 victory on a 3-yard run with just 12 seconds to play.
But, then, there’s Doubs and Strong and a pass game that is leading the Mountain West with 331.2 yards per game and 16 touchdowns.
Fresno State has not let many wideouts blow the top off of its coverage – it has allowed just 10 chunk pass plays of 20 or more yards, second in the Mountain West, and three of those plays were made by a tight end. But Doubs obviously will be a focus.
“The one thing that we all know, my man Doubs, he is one of the fastest athletes in the conference,” Bulldogs’ defensive coordinator William Inge said.
“So, what you have to do is just make sure you don’t beat yourself and that you minimize getting the ball thrown over the top of the defense.”
Nevada could try to just get the ball into Doubs’ hands on screens or quicker throws and see if he can make the Bulldogs miss.
But both teams could have a few surprises. For Nevada, the Bulldogs’ time off while under a 14-day COVID-19 quarantine comes into play.
“They’ve had almost three weeks off so they could come out in almost anything,” Strong said. “They’re typically a four-down front, Cover 4 a lot and some man coverage, but we really have to be ready for anything. These past few weeks we’ve gotten some crazy looks so we really just have to be ready for whatever.”
Here are three more things to watch …
TORY HORTON VS. HOMETOWN TEAM
If the Bulldogs do roll coverage toward Doubs it will create opportunity elsewhere, so who will Strong be looking for in those situations?
The easy answer is tight end Cole Turner, who is second on the team with 35 receptions for 427 yards and four touchdowns.
But Tory Horton, the former Washington Union High standout, is developing into an intriguing player as a true freshman.
Horton caught three passes for 46 yards and a score at Hawaii and, in what could be a telling play, was on the receiving end of an 18-yard touchdown pass from Strong on a third-and-8 in the fourth quarter. The score got the Wolf Pack to within 24-21 with 5:38 to play.
JAKE HAENER IN MORE CREDIBLE TEST
Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener hit 71% of his passes (66 of 93) with eight touchdowns and only one interception and averaged 299.0 yards over a three-game stretch before the Bulldogs had back-to-back games canceled against San Jose State and San Diego State.
He had a passing efficiency rating of 178.22, one of the best three-game stretches for a Bulldogs’ starting quarterback going back to the Derek Carr days.
202.84 – Derek Carr, 2013
194.42 – Derek Carr, 2012
192.27 – Derek Carr, 2013
188.54 – Derek Carr, 2013
182.04 – Marcus McMaryion, 2018
178.22 – Jake Haener, 2020
176.54 – Marcus McMaryion, 2018
172.07 – Derek Carr, 2011
171.97 – Marcus McMaryion, 2018
170.51 – Derek Carr, 2012
The Bulldogs didn’t really play anyone, though. Colorado State is seventh in the Mountain West in total defense, UNLV 11th and Utah State 12th. Fresno State didn’t play San Diego State, the top-ranked defense in the conference, and San Jose State is fifth.
The Wolf Pack is ranked second in total defense and fourth in scoring defense, and most definitely will test Haener’s efficiency on third downs. He has hit 77.4% of his third-down passes, the fourth-highest percentage in the nation.
“They’re simple to a point on base downs, but when you get into high-pressure situations, both on third down and red zone, they give some very unique looks and it’s night and day,” offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said.
“It’s very similar to what you’d see back in 2017 and ‘18 from the Wyoming defense with some six-up looks on third down, pressure packages that can be a little bit of a headache. I know they’re ranked nationally on their third-down defense so I think that’ll be a huge part of the game, being able to stay on the football field on third down.”
NEVADA AND THE RED ZONE IMPLOSION
The Wolf Pack has an explosive offense, without question. They are leading the Mountain West in plays of 10 yards or more (96), 20 yards or more (33), 30 yards or more (18), 40 yards or more (11) and all the way out to 60 yards or more.
They’re ranked first in the conference in passing offense, second in total offense.
But in what could be a close game with both teams trading scores, look for a Nevada weakness: red zone offense.
That’s running it …
- Red zone – 39 for 62, 1.6 ypp
- All other plays – 125 for 630, 5.0 ypp
And that’s passing it …
- Red zone – 14 of 33 (42.4%), 2.8 ypp
- All other plays – 159 of 211 (75.4%), 9.0 ypp
Nevada has scored on 96% of its red zone possessions, but it has scored 12 touchdowns and had to settle for a field goal 12 times.
Its red zone touchdown percentage is 115th-highest in the nation, and its red zone field goal percentage is the second-highest.
Fresno State has allowed opponents to score a touchdown on only 7 of 17 trips into the red zone, the best percentage (41.1%) in the Mountain West and sixth-best in the nation.
TV, BETTING LINE AND MORE
Where and when: Mackay Stadium, Reno; Saturday, 6 p.m.
TV/Radio: FS2/ESPN940AM
Records: Bulldogs 3-1, Wolf Pack 5-1
Series: Bulldogs lead 29-21-1
Last meeting: Nevada rushed for 254 yards and Toa Taua scored on a 3-yard run with 12 seconds remaining to give the Wolf Pack a 35-28 victory.
Coaches: Kalen DeBoer (3-1), Jay Norvell (23-21 in fourth season)
Line: Nevada -7.5
MOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEK
Thursday, Dec. 3
Air Force (2-2 Mountain West, 3-2 overall) 35, Utah State (1-5, 1-5) 7
Friday, Dec. 4
Boise State (4-0, 4-1) at UNLV (0-5, 0-5), canceled
Saturday, Dec. 5
San Jose State (4-0, 4-0) at Hawaii (3-3, 3-3), 3 p.m.
Colorado State (1-2, 1-2) at San Diego State (3-2, 3-3), 4 p.m.
Fresno State (3-1, 3-1) at Nevada (5-1, 5-1), 6 p.m.
Wyoming (2-2, 2-2) vs. New Mexico (0-5, 0-5) at Las Vegas, 7:30 p.m.
This story was originally published December 3, 2020 at 12:00 PM.