Fresno State first look: Just how legitimate are those Nevada passing statistics?
Nevada blew a chance to extend its best start since 2010, losing 24-21 at Hawaii as a 7-point road favorite in a game that was nothing like its first five this season.
The top passing offense in the Mountain West produced a season-low 168 yards and the Wolf Pack scored just 21 points. Wideout Romeo Doubs, who had topped 100 receiving yards in the first five games with nine touchdowns, had just one catch for 10 yards.
But that loss helped Fresno State, setting up what amounts to an elimination game for the Bulldogs and Nevada in the race to the conference championship game.
San Jose State (4-0) and Boise State (4-0) are undefeated, and the Bulldogs (3-1) and Wolf Pack (5-1) have one loss with two games to play.
Here is a first look at Nevada …
FRESNO STATE at NEVADA
Where and when: Mackay Stadium, Reno; Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
TV/radio: FS2/ESPN (940 AM)
Records: Bulldogs 3-1, Wolf Pack 5-1
Series: Bulldogs lead 29-21-1
Last meeting: Nevada rushed for 254 yards and Toa Taua scored on a 3-yard run with 12 seconds remaining to give the Wolf Pack a 35-28 victory.
Coaches: Kalen DeBoer (3-1), Jay Norvell (23-21 in fourth season)
Line: Nevada -7.5
SO IS IT DOUBS, OR THE COMPANY KEPT?
Nevada has the most productive passing offense in the Mountain West, but In its first four games it played some of the worst pass defenses in the conference — UNLV (eighth), Wyoming (ninth), Utah State (10th) and New Mexico (12th).
In those games it completed 70.9% of its passes and averaged 382.8 yards with 12 touchdowns and only one interception. It averaged 8.9 yards per attempt and 12.5 per completion.
In the past two games, Nevada has played the two best pass defenses in the conference – San Diego State and Hawaii.
In those games it hit 70.8% of its passes, but averaged only 228.0 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. It averaged 6.3 yards per attempt and 8.9 per completion.
That’s a difference of 154.8 yards per game.
The Rainbow Warriors’ defense against Doubs obviously played a big part in that. Nevada never could get its top playmaker free, with Hawaii doing everything it could in coverage. It doubled. It dropped eight into coverage, and sometimes nine.
“(Cornerback) Cortez Davis was masterful,” Hawaii coach Todd Graham said in his postgame news conference. “I think he played about seven different techniques on Doubs.”
It wasn’t going to give Doubs an opportunity at an explosive play down the field.
Doubs’ production fell way off in a season that has gone like this …
- Wyoming – 12 for 117 and 1 TD
- at UNLV – 7 for 219 and 1
- Utah State – 7 for 137 and 3
- at New Mexico – 5 for 172 and 3
- San Diego State – 5 for 133 and 1
- at Hawaii – 1 for 10
With it, so did an offense that leads the Mountain West in chunk passing plays of 20, 30, 40 and 50 or more yards. It had just one at Hawaii. It went for 26 yards.
That passing game looked much different when poor pass defenses were trying to play man coverage outside against Doubs with overmatched cornerbacks.
Hawaii left the Wolf Pack offense looking fairly tame, and their point totals have been on a decline since their second game. Nevada scored 37 against Wyoming and at UNLV, then 34 against Utah State, 27 against New Mexico, 26 against San Diego State and 21 at Hawaii.
Fresno State is next up and the Bulldogs are ranked third in the conference in passing defense, much closer to San Diego State and Hawaii than Wyoming, UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico.
DOM PETERSON INJURY UPDATE
Nevada defensive tackle Dom Peterson, one of the top interior defensive linemen in the Mountain West, injured an ankle in the second quarter of the loss at Hawaii and did not return.
His status for Saturday and Fresno State is to be determined later in the week, but if unable to go, or limited by the injury, a Wolf Pack defense ranked second in the conference in total defense and fourth in scoring defense takes a significant hit.
“We’re hopeful that he will (play),” Nevada coach Jay Norvell said in his weekly news conference. “He didn’t really practice (Monday), wasn’t able to run around very good, but he’s not ruled out. We’re hopeful that he’s going to be better by the weekend.
“He got a bad sprain and, you know, when you’re 300 pounds those sprains are a little bit different for guys that are lighter than that. Everybody is a little bit different, but he was hobbled pretty good. When he got hurt he couldn’t return in the game. He’s an awfully good player so we do miss him when he’s not in there.”
PACK LACKING IN TURNOVER DEPARTMENT
With Peterson and those glossy stats Nevada has not had much success forcing turnovers despite playing some of the most turnover prone teams in the Mountain West.
It has just three takeaways this season. That’s …
Utah State, 11th with 1.6 TO pg – 0 turnovers gained
San Diego State, tie 9th with 1.5 TO pg – 1 fumble recovery
Hawaii, tie 9th with 1.5 TO pg – 0 turnovers gained
New Mexico, 8th with 1.4 TO pg – 1 interception
Wyoming, tie 6th with 1.3 TO pg – 1 interception
UNLV, 5th with 1.2 TO pg – 0 turnovers gained
That should be of interest to the Bulldogs, who have seven turnovers (four interceptions and three fumbles) and a conference high 1.8 per game.
The Wolf Pack doesn’t even have a defensive player credited with a forced fumble, their one recovery coming on an unforced error by San Diego State running back Greg Bell.
Over the past 10 seasons in the Mountain West, San Jose State has the fewest fumbles forced with two in 2013 when it played 12 games.
A FRESHMAN STARTS WHERE?
Nevada is attempting 40.7 passes a game, most in the conference and ninth in the nation, and still has allowed only 2.2 sacks a game.
It also starts a true freshman at left tackle — Jacob Gardner.
Fresno State is averaging 5.0 sacks per game, most in the nation.
TRAVEL, NOT AN ISSUE FOR WOLF PACK
A trip to Hawaii can become a problem for Mountain West teams on the mainland, especially with a late-night kickoff. Not for Nevada, though. This is how it has fared after playing at Hawaii …
2018 – Beat San Diego State 28-24. The Aztecs went into that game 6-1 and with six wins in a row including one at No. 23 Boise State.
2016 – Beat Fresno State 27-22. The Bulldogs were in the middle of a 1-11 season and playing on the road in back-to-back weeks.
2014 – Beat San Diego State 30-14. The Aztecs had won two games in a row, 3 of 4, and went in with extra prep time off a bye week.
2012 – Won at Texas State 34-21. The Bobcats were 2-1 including a win at Houston in their first season at the FBS level.
The Wolf Pack took steps to keep that streak going, staying over in Hawaii after the game rather than jumping on a charter for a long flight home.
“I appreciate (Athletic Director Doug Knuth) allowing us to do that,” Norvell said. “You know, when you play a hard game and you play late, you have a lot of big guys that expended a lot of energy, they’re beat up, they’re sore, and the last thing you want them to have to do is sit on an airplane and sleep all night and come back at 9 o’clock the next morning.
“We got back to the hotel after the game. We put everybody to bed and we got up and came back and I think that will be very beneficial for our kids bouncing back quickly. When you make that all-night flight it takes three or four days to recover and we were back on the field (Monday), we were fresh and the guys were anxious to go.”
This story was originally published December 1, 2020 at 5:00 AM.