Shifting power dynamics on Fresno City Council can be explained by jungle law | Opinion
In both the Serengeti and City Hall, the laws of the jungle always prevail.
The strongest climb to the top of the power structure while the weakest get shoved to the bottom. Year by year, the dynamics constantly shift. After enough time goes by, those with the most power often wind up with the least.
This applies out on the savanna and inside the proverbial lion’s den that is the Fresno City Council chambers. Where, for the fourth time since 2016, the rules for selecting a council president and vice president have been tinkered with – granting the public a fairly transparent view of the current hierarchy.
During their Dec. 12 meeting, the council members voted unanimously to scrap the annual rotation of districts and reinstall an election system for choosing their president and vice president starting in 2026.
That last detail ensures District 2 representative Mike Karbassi, who served as vice president this year under Annalisa Perea, will be elevated to president when the city council reconvenes Jan. 9 with District 3’s Miguel Arias becoming vice president.
However, the reinstallation of the election system means Arias will not automatically be president in 2026, his final year before terming out, like he would have if the rotation remained in place.
Arias himself supported the change – with the understanding that his days of council leadership are over.
“I don’t feel slighted,” Arias said. “It’s the natural process. … I’ve accepted the fact that I’ll probably be a lame duck in my last two years.”
The shift in power dynamics is a far cry from December 2020 when Arias, as council president, orchestrated an amendment allowing the council to choose Esparza as vice president over Garry Bredefeld in 2021 and prevent the council’s only Republican from becoming president in 2022.
For context, the move took place during the pandemic when Bredefeld was in constant attack mode. He accused Arias of being the ringleader of a “corrupt gang of four” at City Hall that included Esmeralda Soria, Tyler Maxwell and Esparza.
2 years of council peace
Fast forward to today and so much has changed following two significantly more tranquil years of council doings under Maxwell and Perea.
Rather than being a ringleader, Arias no longer wields the type of power he once did, finds himself increasingly isolated during debates and has sharpened his rhetoric toward colleagues and city staff.
If a “gang of four” exists on the current Fresno City Council, membership would consist of Esparza, Karbassi, Maxwell and Perea. Though it would be inaccurate to portray this group as a cohesive unit due to their disparate political ambitions.
Esparza has already launched his 2026 campaign for state Senate, Perea is mulling a run for state Assembly while Maxwell and Karbassi are viewed as two of the favorites to become the next Fresno mayor.
Did those four rejigger the selection process to prevent Arias from taking the reins in 2026? (The resolution also allows council members to serve consecutive terms as president.)
Partially so, to be certain. But as always under jungle law, the situation is more complex.
In 2020, Karbassi joined Bredefeld and Luis Chavez in voting against the election system. Today, after being skipped over as vice president in 2022, he co-sponsored its return.
Why the change of heart?
“It’s clear the dynamic has changed since 2020,” Karbassi said via text. “Both Tyler and Annalisa have helped heal the division and keep us mostly focused on the people’s business, and I aim to do the same next year. …
“I think going back to a merit-based system actually shows maturity on the part of the council.”
President presides, decides
Besides presiding over meetings, the president has significant sway over what gets discussed in that fellow council members must submit agenda items for his or her approval.
The president also sets the seating chart for meetings. Next year, Karbassi said, council members will be seated in the dais in sequential order by district number when viewed from the audience, unless two request a switch, with an open seat between Maxwell and newcomer Nick Richardson until after the District 5 special election.
Less visible but significantly more impactful, the council president chooses committee assignments.
While not solely a city issue, 2025 will be a huge year for Measure C supporters eager to get a new version of the county transportation tax on the 2026 ballot before it expires.
Arias, the only council member to oppose Measure C in 2022, currently serves as the city council representative to the Fresno County Transportation Authority Board. His term ends in January.
If Arias gets reappointed to the FCTA board, he would almost certainly become the squeaky wheel in the room sticking up for community groups. Alternatively, he could be replaced by a council member more friendly to business and industry.
Karbassi said he has yet to look at committee assignments and will consult with Perea, the outgoing president, before making any decisions.
Meanwhile, Arias said he is uncertain if he wants to continue on FCTA but won’t feel slighted if he gets removed. Among this pack of lions, he knows his place.
“I’m the old lion right now,” Arias said. “Just like Esmeralda Soria was the old lion and Paul Caprioglio was the old lion and Oliver Baines was the old lion. We’re all old lions when we have two years left.”
Such are the laws of the jungle. Old lions get ostracized, especially the most combative.
