Moderates go 1-2 in Fresno supervisor race. Where does that leave Miguel Arias? | Opinion
The voters of Fresno County’s most progressive supervisorial district have spoken.
Fewer than 20% of them, but that still counts.
Fresno’s most progressive, outspoken city councilman won’t advance to the general election in November. Leaving Miguel Arias’ future in politics in doubt.
With 19.8% of the vote in the March 5 primary, Arias finished a distant third to the two moderate Democrats in the District 3 race: incumbent supervisor Sal Quintero (37.2%) and fellow council member Luis Chavez (26.1%).
Arias’ vote percentage is, in fact, nearer to fourth-place finisher and political newcomer EJ Hinojosa (16.7%) than to Quintero and Chavez, who will continue to duke it out over the next eight months.
“It’s disappointing professionally, but my kids celebrated the fact that I’m not moving on,” Arias said. “I think it’s a signal that after nearly 20 years of public service it’s time for me to spend more time at home than on the campaign trail.”
District 3, which includes most south Fresno neighborhoods east of 99, is the most progressive seat on the conservative-leaning Fresno County Board of Supervisors. The district’s registered Republicans (15,347) are not only dwarfed by Democrats (39,647), according to the California Secretary of State’s latest data, they’re also outnumbered by No Party Preference voters (19,692).
Yet Republicans and independents seem to have played an outsized role in this outcome. Quintero, whose biggest advantage is familiarity, rolled out an endorsement list filled with prominent local Republicans, including state Assemblymember Jim Patterson, District Attorney Lisa Smittcamp and former Sheriff Margaret Mims.
That strategy probably doesn’t fly in November. But it paid off beautifully in March thanks to the exceedingly low voter turnout. Only 19.2% of registered voters in District 3 returned their ballots, compared to 37.2% in the District 2 primary (north Fresno) and 34.2% in District 5 (Clovis and the foothills).
Progressive vote split
Besides the low turnout, the other fly in Arias’ ointment was the presence of Hinojosa, a fellow progressive and Tower District resident.
“If EJ wouldn’t have been part of the equation, I think we would have received 30% of the vote and gotten into the runoff,” Arias said. “But that’s the reality that you deal with when you have multiple candidates representing a certain part of the district.”
A teacher making his first run for public office, Hinojosa agreed while emphasizing it wasn’t the intention.
“Certainly my bid in this race was a foil for Miguel Arias given that we both promote progressive platforms,” Hinojosa said. “That wasn’t the purpose of my campaign, only a consequence of it, and I wonder if Miguel hadn’t run in the primary how many of his votes would have gone to me, Luis Chavez or Sal Quintero.”
Something tells me we haven’t heard the last of Hinojosa in local politics.
But what about Arias, whose second (and final) term on the Fresno City Council runs through 2026?
“I don’t know if there is going to be one,” Arias replied when asked about his political future. “I served on my first local school board at the age of 22. I’m 45 now. I have a new son coming in June and a daughter who will be off to college in June. This is a time of transition for me. I want to spend some time assessing what to do professionally for the rest of my life’s journey.”
Arias said he will devote the remainder of his council term to finishing all the housing and neighborhood infrastructure projects that he initiated during his tenure. Those include the Armenian row houses and Hotel Fresno, both of which are nearly complete after years of delays, as well as the construction of new parks in southwest Fresno and South Tower.
No endorsement, yet
What Arias won’t do, at least for the time being, is throw his support behind either Quintero or Chavez. Two moderate Democrats who now need to convince progressives who supported Arias or Hinojosa in the primary to vote for them in November.
Before deciding whether to endorse a candidate in the general election, Arias will be looking at two main issues: Do Quintero and Chavez support the proposed 3,000-acre industrial park just south of the Fresno city limits? And do they support the current board’s cave-in to developers bent on bringing suburbs to the foothills?
“Those two questions are going to determine the future of this district for generations to come,” Arias said.
“If the future supervisor for this district continues to pursue the board majority’s interest to build new towns at the edges of the county instead of investing into existing neighborhoods and building industrial parks and not holding anyone accountable for the pollution they generate, then I think we’ll be worse off than we have been in the past.”
South Fresno progressives may not see their most-favored candidate on the November ballot for county supervisor. But they might yet determine the winner.
