Jerry Dyer has four more years as Fresno mayor. Who’s lining up to be next? | Opinion
Fresno didn’t have much of a mayoral campaign during the 2024 election cycle.
The city’s voters overwhelmingly reelected Jerry Dyer during the March primary by choosing him on 80% of their ballots – the highest percentage of any second-term mayor since Fresno’s strong mayor form of government took effect in 1997.
Dyer has the next four years to enact policy and cement his legacy. That much is certain. But what happens in 2028 when Dyer is termed out? How is the race to become the next mayor of Fresno shaping up?
Since election night, I’ve posed those questions to 15 local politicians and insiders on both sides of the aisle with the promise that anything they say will be used anonymously. Given the freedom to speak without their names attached, the replies were interesting and varied.
A fair number responded it was too soon to forecast the 2028 mayoral race, or that a darkhorse might still emerge. But as of right now, the names most frequently mentioned as positioning themselves for a run are Tyler Maxwell and Joaquin Arambula.
Maxwell’s inclusion on the short list of early front-runners is expected. The Fresno council member for District 4 has displayed both ability and ambition. Plus, he’ll be termed out in 2028 – an ideal time to run for higher office.
“Tyler’s got the right energy for mayor,” one respondent said. “He’s also one of the most impressive policymakers I’ve seen and worked with.”
“He has proven to be an effective leader who gets things done and understands the needs of people in the community,” added another.
From state assembly to mayor?
Arambula is more of a surprise considering he’s a recently reelected state assemblyman for District 31 that includes much of central and south Fresno as well as points south and east including Sanger and Selma.
However, those surveyed indicate Arambula is operating like he cannot run again due to term limits – his 2016 special election victory makes that a little unclear – and will instead turn to local politics.
The anticipation is for Arambula to run for Fresno City Council in 2026 – succeeding the termed-out Miguel Arias in District 3 – as a prelude to a potential mayoral run in 2028. The emergency room physician lives in the Wilson Island Historic District, which became part of District 3 when new boundaries went into effect for the 2022 election.
“It would be a huge and necessary elevation in leadership to have (Arambula) serve on council and mayor during the prime of his professional tenure,” one respondent said. “Not to mention he doesn’t need the job and could cash in on his experience in Sacramento like previous state representatives have.”
Another name being mentioned, though not with the same frequency as Maxwell and Arambula, is Fresno City Councilmember Mike Karbassi from District 2.
“Joaquin Arambula has more name ID – it’s not all positive though,” said a respondent with decades of experience in local politics and elections.
“Maxwell and Karbassi are good campaigners. I wouldn’t rule either of them out. They’re both good walkers and campaigners. That’s not necessarily Joaquin’s forte.”
What about the capable Annalisa Perea, who represents Fresno City Council District 1? The word is Perea is mulling a 2026 run for the state Assembly seat Arambula will be exiting.
Arambula, Maxwell and Karbassi are all Democrats. If one of them follows Dyer in 2028, it would break a streak of five straight Republicans under the strong mayor system.
Democrats hold registration edge
Going by party registration, Fresno should be primed to elect a Democratic mayor. Registered Democrats make up 41.4% of the citywide electorate of 267,965 voters compared to the 27.7% Republicans and 21.9% No Party Preference, according to the California Secretary of State’s most recent report.
But what about Republicans in this survey? Respondents struggled to come up with any names assuming Garry Bredefeld enjoys his new job as the Fresno County supervisor for north Fresno.
“They don’t have much of a bench,” one said.
Another was more pointed: “I don’t know anyone on the Republican side that I think could win mayor.”
“Our best bet is a private sector candidate with a big reputation and the ability to self fund,” a third added.
In that vein, the next Fresno mayor could end up being someone who emerges from outside the normal political sphere.
Under the city’s current form of government, Lee Brand is the only former council member to become mayor. Dyer was a popular, longtime police chief. Ashley Sweargenin came from the nonprofit, job creation sector. Alan Autry was an actor who played briefly in the NFL. Jim Patterson co-owned a Christian radio station before launching his political career.
“City Hall officials today come off as very ‘inside baseball’ cliquish, and not terribly inspiring,” one respondent said. “There is a clear lane for a respected, accomplished outsider. Fresno loves to elect the Credible Outsider as its strong mayor.”
Whether that person is a City Hall insider like Maxwell, a well-known political figure like Arambula or an outsider who jumps into the fray, the next mayor of Fresno will have large shoes to fill. At least in the estimation of one of the 15 respondents to my little survey.
“All I can say is that it will be tough to find anyone who measures up to Jerry Dyer.”
