Fresno County registrar sees big return of mail-in recall ballots. What does that tell us?
The Fresno County Clerk and Registrar of Voters has received more than 90,000 ballots through Monday morning in the recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom.
It is difficult to draw comparisons in recall elections because they are so rare, according to James Kus, the county’s registrar.
For instance, the county does not have records for the daily tally of ballots for the 2003 recall election won by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kus noted. So an apples-to-apples comparison of 15 days before Election Day is not immediately available.
When it was over, the 2003 recall drew about 190,000 votes from the county’s 336,000 registered voters, a 56% turnout, according to Kus. Fresno County looks significantly different this year with 506,000 registered voters.
About two-thirds of the ballots cast in 2003 marked “yes” on the recall of then-Gov. Gray Davis, and about half were marked for Schwarzenegger. That was pretty close to the statewide averages of 55.4% for the recall and 48.6% for Schwarzenegger.
Kus said Fresno County has so far this year had the highest vote-by-mail turnout of any election in the past six years. But if you also tally the ballots from drop boxes, the special recall election is behind the presidential election of last year.
“It’s starting to cool off a little bit,” he said. “That’s always the trend.”
Kus said he estimates a turnout this time around of 50% to 55%.
Of the 22 million ballots sent out to registered voters in the state, about 3.7 million have come back, according to Political Data Inc., a voter information tracker. That is 17% of the registered voters in California.
California’s registered voters are 46% Democratic and 24% Republican. About 2 million people signed the recall petition.
Who is on the ballot?
The Republican recall card is full with former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Assemblymember Kevin Kiley and businessman John Cox. Those are some of the more visible candidates who have made multiple visits to the Fresno area, as well as conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, who is considered the front runner among Republicans.
There are 46 candidates on the ballot, including Democrat and YouTuber Kevin Paffrath and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner, who is also a Republican.
Fresno County election
The Fresno County elections employees had 75 days to organize the effort to send out and collect ballots, Kus said, adding the election so far has been free of any major problems.
The last day to become a registered voter online or by mail was Monday, but anyone can still visit the downtown registrar’s office or a voting center to register.
Election Day is Sept. 14.
The ballot has two questions. The first is a “yes or no” question on whether to recall Newsom. The second question is a vote on who should be his replacement.
More than 50% of voters must answer “yes” to the recall before Newsom is replaced. Even those who vote “no” can pick a candidate on the second question.
Recall candidates don’t need a majority to win as long as they’re the top vote-getter in the election.
Voting centers begin opening on Saturday in Fresno County with more opening their doors on Sept. 11. Those are for anyone who wants to vote in-person.
Kus encouraged voters to mark their ballots and return them in the mail or put them in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election day.
Dominion Voting Systems
Fresno County contracts with Dominion Voting Systems, which has been the target of unfounded controversies. Detractors have said the systems can be hacked, but have not shown any evidence to prove it. Elections officials say the machines are not even connected to the internet.
Kus said residents often ask about the system, and he invites them to get acquainted with the machines and the process.
“There are members of the community who ask on nearly a daily basis,” he said. “We encourage them to participate in the process to see that the processes are secure.”
The registrar’s website, fresnovote.com, is updated often with any changes to drop box locations. Voters can also use its online tool to find the closest drop box to their home, work, local grocery store or any other location.
Anyone can check the status of their ballot at the “Where’s My Ballot?” page for the California Secretary of State’s Office. Elections staffers remind voters to sign the ballot before dropping it in a box or mail. For any ballot troubleshooting, call the registrar’s office at 559-600-8683.
This story was originally published August 31, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
