What will California Democrats do if Gavin Newsom loses? Here’s what they did to Schwarzenegger

If voters kick Gov. Gavin Newsom out of office next month, whoever replaces him won’t have the political muscle of the last Republican to unseat a Democratic governor.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie star and champion bodybuilder, captivated voters in 2003 in the recall of Gov. Gray Davis with his international name recognition and pledge to hand Sacramento back to the people.

But even Schwarzenegger struggled to translate that fame into political victories in California’s Democrat-dominated Capitol. His terms were marked by budget stalemates and impasses with the Legislature on unions, pensions and government spending.

A Republican following Newsom after the recall would face even tougher odds in today’s Legislature, said Paul Hefner, a longtime Democratic political adviser.

Democrats now have a supermajority in both the Assembly and Senate. They can override a veto and implement a budget without the governor.

A recall governor after Newsom would have only a year before the next election, which leaves little time to staff an administration and execute policy priorities.

“Democratic leadership in the Legislature took great pleasure in crushing every single thing Arnold proposed. He had no choice but to call a special election and run his own set of ballot measures and we turned around and beat the crap out of him on that,” Hefner said, referring to Schwarzenegger’s package of propositions in 2005.

“These folks are not going to be able to pass a slice of pumpkin pie on Thanksgiving. It’s not happening,” Hefner said about the GOP candidates running in the recall.

Schwarzenegger rose to power, in part, because his celebrity transcended politics. He promised to cut spending and become a “governor for the people.” He was married to Maria Shriver, a well-known Democrat and member of the Kennedy family.

Nearly 80% of registered voters in August 2003 reported a favorable opinion of then-candidate Schwarzenegger. Two months later, Californians removed Davis from office and sent Schwarzenegger to Sacramento with 48% of the vote.

Recent polls show the race to recall Newsom on Sept. 14 is close, but no candidate yet enjoys the widespread enthusiasm that propelled Schwarzenegger to office.

Conservative talk show host Larry Elder leads the field with 27% of the likely vote, according to an Aug. 26 Change Research poll. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley followed with 4%, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer with 3%, businessman John Cox with 2% and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner with 1%.

Democratic party leaders argue that the recall Republicans are too far-right or Trumpian for bipartisanship. They especially dislike Elder, who’s drawn criticism over a series of comments he’s made about women and his support for a $0 minimum wage. The Republican candidates are largely against mask and vaccine mandates, which Democratic leaders consider key tools to killing COVID.

Former California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, a Democrat, said it’s “hard to point to anyone who I could work with” among the Republican candidates.

“Because I don’t think they represent the values that California espouses,” Nuñez said. “Schwarzenegger did.”

GOP contenders say they’re not worried, and believe they can strengthen their party’s weak hand in the Legislature.

Faulconer said he’ll use his experience working with Democrats on the San Diego city council to build bipartisan bridges. Cox said he’ll use political pressure and special sessions to force the Legislature into compliance. Kiley said he’ll leverage his legislative experience to block bad bills. Elder and Jenner did not respond to interview requests.

But today’s political divisions could upend those ambitions, political experts say.

“Unfortunately, given this Legislature and the slate of candidates, I don’t see a lot of room for bipartisan policy,” Republican strategist Beth Miller said. “I do not see where the Legislature, especially as progressive as they are, would be willing for a year to give a recall governor any wins.”

Odds stacked against a Republican

If a Republican wins on Sept. 14, the victor will have 38 days before assuming office.

With no bills to sign and lawmakers back in their districts for the year, the governor’s first serious task would be submitting a budget draft in January.

Democrats, meanwhile, will start mapping their own fiscal priorities and they only need a simple majority to pass a budget. Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon have the upper hand with Democrats account for 75% Legislature’s seats.

If the governor rejects certain spending proposals or the entire blueprint, the California constitution affords the Legislature 60 session days to override a line-item or entire veto with a two-thirds majority, said veteran lobbyist Chris Micheli.

Democrats can override a legislative veto using the same threshold.

It’s been more than 40 years since the Legislature employed that tactic, according to California State Library spokesman and author Alex Vassar.

But that could change in 2022.

“The infrastructure is there to make it very easy,” Miller, the Republican strategist, said.

Schwarzenegger tried to work with Democrats

Much of politics boils down to relationships.

Schwarzenegger spent a lot of his time “courting legislators” in his cigar-smoking tent, said Richard Costigan, his former legislative director. “As much as they hated the governor at times, man, if you invited them to the smoking tent...legislators loved being there.”

Former Senate President Pro Tem John Burton, a fiery San Francisco liberal, developed a “bromance” of sorts with Schwarzenegger, recalled Rob Stutzman, the governor’s former deputy chief of staff for communications.

“They certainly clashed on policy, but there was good communication,” Stutzman added. “(Burton would) take a nap on the chief of staff’s couch. He would bring pies in from Ikeda’s and drop off a pie with the governor.”

Nuñez, who served in leadership from 2004 to 2008, said he and Schwarzenegger “didn’t start out as friends.” The two later forged a relationship over a joint interest in California’s economic viability.

On his final day in office, Schwarzenegger announced that he had cut the 16-year sentence of the speaker’s son for the younger Nuñez’s role in the 2008 killing of a San Diego college student.

Schwarzenegger in 2004 also worked with Democrats on a workers compensation reform bill, and successfully pushed for infrastructure updates and ambitious climate change policies.

“The governor was really focused on talking about being the people’s governor and returning government to the people. He was post-partisan,” said Margita Thompson, Schwarzenegger’s former press secretary. “He was certainly about Republican principles, but he was about bringing politicians from across the aisle to solve problems.”

Schwarzenegger took on California Democrats and the state’s public employee unions in 2005 with a package of ballot initiatives that would have given him more authority to cut spending unilaterally and placed restrictions on unions’ political power. He lost badly, with voters rejecting all of his proposals.

Afterward, Schwarzenegger took a more moderate tone with the Legislature, which helped land him another term.

“We thought we had the wind at our backs in 2005. We thought we ruled the roost. The voters told us we were wrong, Costigan said. “At the end of the day, we found common ground.”

Democrats don’t see a Schwarzenegger in recall field

Atkins and Rendon declined interview requests on how they would collaborate with a Republican governor, but those close to the Democrats aren’t optimistic.

Bill Wong, political director for the Assembly Democrats, said the Republicans running to replace Newsom would “create chaos.”

“(Schwarzenegger’s) tone was much more conciliatory toward establishing a government that works,” Wong said. “That’s not what we have here. We have extremists. I don’t think there’s a lot of room to work in that scenario.”

Sacramento Mayor and former Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg agrees. Too much has changed in the decade since Schwarzenegger left office, Steinberg said, to expect bipartisan camaraderie. Government would “shut down” amid gridlock over issues like California’s stringent environmental protections, coronavirus rules and positions on immigration and gun control.

“This is not Arnold Schwarzenegger’s party by any means,” Steinberg said.

Democrats would have to use “every tool,” Steinberg added, to make life for a Republican very hard.

“You would override vetoes, you would take any effort to roll back a vital regulation and you’d put it into statute. You would go to court,” Steinberg said. “I would guarantee you that if this scenario plays out, the Democrats wouldn’t hesitate. I wouldn’t.”

The governor still has a lot of power

If anyone understands Democratic stonewalling, it’s Assembly Republican Leader Marie Waldron.

Waldron said her members’ bills often don’t even get scheduled for a committee hearing, let alone survive long enough for a floor vote.

But she’s no pessimist.

Democrats would override some vetoes, Waldron said, but most bills to keep government operating enjoy bipartisan support. Waldron, who endorsed Faulconer, said Democrats and Republicans could manage for one year to fix the Employment Development Department, or mitigate raging wildfires.

“Those issues deserve bipartisan solutions, and (a governor) really needs to be able to come in, roll up their sleeves and work with everybody,” Waldron said.

And a GOP governor wouldn’t be powerless.

He or she could roll back Newsom’s executive orders on COVID regulations and environmental goals, or focus on regulating state agencies. The Republican could use the bully pulpit to highlight policy debates and disagreements that aren’t as publicly discussed with Democrats in charge.

The Republican candidates acknowledge the numbers in the Legislature are not in their favor. They’re plotting different strategies to overcome opposition.

Kiley said he would reject bills that violate public interest, and doubts an override would be easy.

Cox said he’ll flex his executive powers, but if Democrats don’t listen to his ideas, he’ll “recruit candidates to run against them.”

Faulconer said he would build an experienced administration ready on day one to remedy bipartisan problems like tent cities on sidewalks and crime.

“There is enough dysfunction in Washington, D.C. People want California to work,” Faulconer said. “And Democrats don’t want dysfunctional government either.”

This story was originally published August 30, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "What will California Democrats do if Gavin Newsom loses? Here’s what they did to Schwarzenegger."