New California poll shows Gavin Newsom likely to defeat recall by a substantial margin

A new poll from UC Berkeley finds Gov. Gavin Newsom is likely to retain his office and defeat the recall election next week by more than 20 points, according to the latest survey from the school’s Institute for Governmental Studies.

The poll released Friday shows Newsom with a big lead just four days from the final day of voting, a dramatic turnaround from the institute’s previous poll, which found the race essentially neck and neck.

Since then, Newsom’s campaign doubled down on framing the election as a Republican power grab, drawing a contrast between the liberal incumbent governor and Larry Elder, the conservative talk radio host who is the top-polling candidate on the replacement ballot.

Pollsters surveyed nearly 10,000 registered voters between August 30 and September 6. They found 60.1% of likely voters oppose the recall, while 38.5% support it.

“The findings underscore a significant change in tempo in the state, as decidedly more Californians are attending to the pending election, and are intent on voting No,” the institute’s co-director G. Cristina Mora said in a news release.

Nearly 40% of likely voters told pollsters they had already voted. Pollsters found nearly two-thirds of those voters oppose the recall. Most people who said they plan to vote in person either on Election Day or before plan to vote for the recall, but the poll did not find that those in-person votes would be enough to oust the governor, lead pollster Mark DiCamillo said.

The results indicate Newsom’s strategy to brand the recall as Republican worked: 65% of likely voters said they thought replacing Newsom with a conservative candidate would undermine California’s policies on climate change, immigration, health care and abortion.

“In the early going it was probably more about whether they liked Newsom or not. It was personalized,” DiCamillo told the Los Angeles Times, which co-sponsored the poll. “By attacking his challenger, which is Elder, and framing it as ‘Look at what you’ll get if you vote for this guy’ ... I think that really won the day.”

The poll found Elder to be the most likely choice to replace Newsom if the governor is recalled, with 38% of likely voters saying they’ll vote for Elder.

YouTube influencer Kevin Paffrath, a Democrat, came in second at 10%, with Republican challengers Kevin Faulconer, John Cox and Kevin Kiley trailing at 8%, 4% and 4%, respectively.

About three in 10 likely voters, including nearly half of Democrats, said they wouldn’t select a replacement option, meaning the winner of the second question will likely be chosen by a more conservative swathe of the electorate.

If most voters vote “no” on the recall question, their pick on the second question for who to replace Newsom will be moot.

Newsom’s campaign has urged voters to skip the second question, arguing none of the alternatives are viable candidates.

This story was originally published September 10, 2021 at 8:41 AM with the headline "New California poll shows Gavin Newsom likely to defeat recall by a substantial margin."