Keys to victory and matchups to watch in Fresno State’s football game vs. New Mexico

UPDATE: The Mountain West Conference announced Thursday afternoon that the game has been switched to FS1. Kickoff is still set for 7:30 p.m.

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Rocky Long is at New Mexico now, back at his alma mater serving as defensive coordinator, and the Lobos are lining up in that 3-3-5 that just about every team in the Mountain West Conference struggled with in the past. Year after year, when Long was at San Diego State, the Aztecs were a top defense in the conference – first in total defense last season, third the year before that, then first, first, first, first four years in a row.

New Mexico is in a massive rebuild under first-year coach Danny Gonzales and the personnel is not yet anywhere near the same level as Long’s defenses at San Diego State, the schemes not as deeply ingrained.

But with the issues Fresno State has had up front with its offensive line, could the Lobos make enough plays to throw a scare into the Bulldogs or even upset them in their final regular-season game?

Fresno State is an 11.5-point favorite Saturday (7:30 p.m., FS1), but it’s not impossible. The Lobos lost their first five games, but by only 39-33 at Hawaii and by 27-20 against Nevada and both of those teams beat the Bulldogs by larger margins.

In its five games, Fresno State is averaging just 3.5 yards per rush, which is 11th in the Mountain West, and if it ends the season there it would be its lowest since that 1-11 season in 2016 (3.2 ypp) and the second-lowest going all the way back to a 5-7-1 season in 1994 (3.4 ypp).

It has allowed 3.2 sacks per game, 11th in the Mountain West. It has allowed 6.8 tackles for loss, ranking ninth.

Balancing that: Quarterback Jake Haener just passed for a career-high 485 yards in a loss at Nevada when constantly having to dodge pass rush and hit the escape hatch when in the pocket.

But now the Bulldogs get a tricky defensive front that will have a lot of moving pieces at the line of scrimmage to deal with.

“A lot of pressure and movement,” offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said. “Rocky Long’s defense, I got my first taste of that in 2017 and that was an eye-opening experience. It was a lot of work. That’s one thing you can guarantee is when you’re getting ready for Rocky Long you’re going to have some long hours because there’s a lot of answers you have to have and he is extremely well-versed, one of the most impressive guys I’ve ever gone up against in my career, just a guy that can call it off the hip. He doesn’t even use a call sheet. He’s an impressive play-caller as a defensive guy. You wonder how a guy can do that and stay out of tendencies. ...

“They can get to any call from any set so it’s really just a wide, wide net that is thrown over it. I know it’s simplistic for him and his guys as far as how he gets to those things. It’s not a big thing for him. But for offenses it can create a lot of headaches with all the movement and all the pieces that can be in different places and pressure from different areas.”

The Bulldogs have a solid history against Long’s defenses when Grubb was the offensive line coach, grinding out victories by going run heavy with their play calls.

Fresno State last season played San Diego State in its 10th game and by that point an offensive line decimated by injuries was barely hanging on. The Bulldogs played a third different starting center in three weeks and had a season-low 207 yards of offense at just 3.9 yards per play in a 17-7 loss to the Aztecs.

But in the 2018 championship season, the Bulldogs pounded the ball at San Diego State, rushing it 43 times including touchdown runs by Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims, and quarterback Marcus McMaryion made some plays over the top of that mass of bodies at the line of scrimmage.

McMaryion attempted only 24 passes but hit Jamire Jordan with an 86-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter and had explosive pass plays of 38, 32 and 37 yards. Fresno State won 23-14.

In 2017, the Bulldogs also were run heavy (38 runs, 16 passes) and racked up 199 yards on the ground and three touchdowns by Josh Hokit. They won that one 27-3.

Here are three more things to watch in the New Mexico matchup …

WILL RIVERS BE READY TO ROLL?

Grubb said on Wednesday that Rivers got some work in during practice and could play against the Lobos, who are allowing 5.0 rushing yards per play and 181.8 yards per game. More pertinent with Rivers one away from setting the school career touchdowns record, they have allowed seven rushing TDs.

“He made a lot of progress between (Tuesday and Wednesday) and we’re hoping for that same result over the next two days,” Grubb said.

If Rivers can’t go due to a leg injury suffered in the loss at Nevada, the bulk of the work likely falls to Mims.

The redshirt junior is five games into a return from a leg injury that had him sidelined for the final two games in 2018 and all of 2019, but when he got his first extended shot this season against the Wolf Pack he was finishing runs, initiating some high-impact collisions.

But there is a statistical anomaly in play. When Rivers has rushed the ball this season he has averaged 5.1 yards per play and when Mims has run it he has averaged just 2.4. More puzzling, Mims’ 60 rushing yards on 25 plays includes a 15-yard run, so on the other 24 plays he is averaging just 1.9 yards.

PERALES WITH A STREAK OF STREAKS

When David Perales arrived at Fresno State, the Bulldogs were anxious to get him on the football field. The transfer from Sacramento State had to sit out last season, but he has proven why the previous defensive staff was so high on his prospects in the first five games of his career.

Perales is leading the Bulldogs with 8.0 tackles for loss and is tied with Kwami Jones and Kevin Atkins for the team lead with 4.0 sacks. He also is leading with four forced fumbles and has one in each of the past four games, and a streak like that hasn’t happened at Fresno State going back over the past 20 seasons.

There are six teams in the Mountain West Conference and 31 in the nation that don’t even have four forced fumbles this season. Can Perales make it five games in a row?

The streak started in the Bulldogs’ victory over Colorado State with a sack of quarterback Todd Centeio, a strip and a fumble recovery.

Perales also had a strip on a sack at UNLV, the fumble recovered by tackle Kurtis Brown. He forced and recovered a fumble by Utah State running back Devonta’e Henry-Cole, and last week at Nevada had a strip on a sack that was recovered by Wolf Pack quarterback Carson Strong.

ADVENTURES IN THE RED ZONE

Fresno State was without its primary specialists in its loss at Nevada, which made kicking field goals in the red zone a dubious call. Twice, the Bulldogs went for it on fourth down inside the 5-yard line and scored on one of those plays, a 3-yard run by quarterback Jake Haener.

If in a similar situation against New Mexico, the odds of getting into the end zone might not be in their favor even 50% of the time.

The Lobos’ opponents, which include three of the top five scoring teams in the Mountain West, have made 15 trips into the red zone and managed to score a touchdown only five times.

New Mexico has the best red zone touchdown percentage in the conference and the fourth-best in the nation, and it has not allowed a touchdown the last seven times it has defended plays inside its 20.

Wyoming

• Fumble
• 25-yard FG
• 26-yard FG
• 29-yard FG

Utah State

• Fumble
• 27-yard FG

Air Force

• Downs

Air Force did score a touchdown on the three red zone trips before that run started. But this could be a problem area for the Bulldogs, who are averaging 2.4 yards per rush in the red zone and have completed 57.7% of their passes when inside an opponent’s 20-yard line (15 of 26).

TV, MATCHUP

Where and when: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas; Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN940AM

Records: Bulldogs 3-2, New Mexico 1-5

Series: Bulldogs lead 13-4

Last meeting: Marcus McMaryion passed for 280 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulldogs to a 38-7 win in 2018 in Albuquerque.

Coaches: Kalen DeBoer (3-2), Danny Gonzales (1-5 in first season)

Line: Bulldogs -11.5

This story was originally published December 10, 2020 at 12:39 PM.