Fresno State football 2020 season: Predictions and previews of key matchups in all 8 games

The past three Fresno State football coaches have each won their debut game and won big, though Pat Hill, Tim DeRuyter and Jeff Tedford each faced overmatched opponents. They also didn’t have to deal with what coach Kalen DeBoer has had to in his first 10 months on the job.

COVID-19 has the Bulldogs behind – no spring ball, no summer workouts.

But they start on Saturday anyway, ready or not, with a game against Hawaii at Bulldog Stadium.

How will they fare in an eight-game season against Mountain West Conference opponents?

It’s difficult to predict. Fresno State did get a break when the conference took Air Force off its schedule and added New Mexico, but there are some tough matchups, starting with the Rainbow Warriors.

A look ahead, and some predictions …

Hawaii

Oct. 24, at Bulldog Stadium (4:30 p.m., KSEE/24)

This could be a wild opener, but Hawaii figures to be ahead of the Bulldogs at this point because it had its players on campus over the summer. Yes, they were shut down a couple of times due to COVID-19, but the Rainbow Warriors were working out together in June and July.

Fresno State was kept off campus by university administrators and has had to try to make up a lot of ground in a short period of time with a first-year quarterback and a new defensive scheme to install. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see DeBoer and the Bulldogs find a way to win – he is 67-3 as a college head coach and there is talent on board – but this is a very difficult spot against a team that has the weapons to score points very quickly.

Prediction: Hawaii 38-35

Result: Hawaii 34-19

Colorado State

Oct. 29, at Bulldog Stadium (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network)

The Rams had eight spring practices, tied with New Mexico for second most in the Mountain West, and they were on campus this summer. In their case that might not have been the best thing, though. Colorado State was shut down for a while during an investigation following allegations of racial insensitivity and abuse and, to kick off game week, coach Steve Addazio said they were practicing without 15 to 20 players a day due to positive COVID-19 tests, quarantines, injuries and other illnesses. The Rams return 69% of their production, tied with Nevada for most in the Mountain West, but are without its best player from a year ago in wideout Warren Jackson, who opted out of playing this season.

What should have been a short week of preparation for Colorado State is no more: The Rams’ scheduled season-opener Oct. 24 at New Mexico was canceled because of coronavirus concerns in the Albuquerque area.

Prediction: Fresno State 31-23

Result: Fresno State 38-17

UNLV

Nov. 7, at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas (12:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)

The Rebels have a facilities edge on Fresno State, not that it will matter … yet. Give new coach Marcus Arroyo and his staff a few years to recruit to that football building and glossy new stadium, and UNLV could move way up.

The Rebels do have some talent with running back Charles Williams (Bullard High), but they likely will again be betrayed by a defense that has had a tough few years. This is difficult to fathom, but in allowing 33.0 points per game last season the Rebels had just 13 sacks, 14 turnovers gained and 60 tackles for loss. They made almost no decisive plays, ranking in a tie for 125th in the nation in sacks, tied for 107th in turnovers gained and tied for 117th in TFLs. UNLV still has a long way to go.

Prediction: Fresno State 42-27

Result: Fresno State 40-27

Utah State

Nov. 14, at Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah (11:30 a.m., Fox Sports 2)

The Aggies have had some very consistent quarterback play through the years. Remember 2015, when Fresno State had four QBs start at least one game? Utah State has had two quarterbacks start a game over the past four-plus seasons and 59 games. They are going this season with Utah transfer Jason Shelley, who played in 18 games for the Utes the past two seasons, but needs some work. Shelley completed only 58.1% of his passes with six touchdowns and six interceptions at Utah and his career efficiency rating is just 119.0, which should also remind Bulldogs’ fans of that 2015 season. The defense is also in need of a rebound after allowing more than 30 points a game for the first time since 2010.

Prediction: Fresno State 24-16

Result: Fresno State 35-16

San Jose State

Nov. 21, at Bulldog Stadium (4 p.m., CBS Sports Network)

San Jose State has won three of its past five games against the Bulldogs and five of its past eight. It also has started work on a new building for its football and soccer programs. None of that should not sit well in the Duncan Building, considering the significant gap between the two in athletics revenues. For Fresno State, it’s $49.7 million. For San Jose State, it’s $32.8 million. Fresno State had won 16 of 17 including a 12-game winning streak from 1991 to 2005, and it should be able to handle a Spartans’ team that seemingly is always searching for answers. This is the first season since 1989 that the Spartans will have the same head coach (Brent Brennan) and offensive and defensive coordinators.

Prediction: Fresno State 34-20

Result: canceled

San Diego State

Nov. 27, at Bulldog Stadium (6 p.m., Fox Sports 1)

The winner has played in the Mountain West championship game in six of the past seven seasons and the defenses have ruled, allowing no more than 14 points. The Aztecs rate an edge there, playing that tricky 3-3-5. San Diego State has eight returning starters from a defense that led the Mountain West in points allowed (12.7 pg), rushing defense (75.4 ypg) and turnovers gained (27) and was third in passing defense (212.4 ypg) and tackles for loss (82.0). There is a new coordinator in Kurt Mattix, but it’s possible to again pull off the next-to-impossible, if need be. Last season, they won 10 games while scoring an average of just 21.2 points. The 17 teams ranked below them in scoring were a combined 48-157.

Prediction: San Diego State 26-17

Result: canceled

Nevada

Dec. 5, at Mackay Stadium, Reno (6 p.m., Fox Sports 2)

The Wolf Pack has been improving steadily under coach Jay Norvell and is one of the few teams the Bulldogs will play that has a returning quarterback that is a credible threat in sophomore Carson Strong.

The Wolf Pack have some experienced pieces among 17 returning starters – three seniors and two juniors starting on the offensive line, some solid receivers led by senior Elijah Cooks, two good junior backs and a defensive front seven that starts five seniors and two juniors. Strong gives the Wolf Pack a chance, if he continues to improve. The last five games of his redshirt freshman season, Strong hit 65.5% of his passes (131 of 200), averaging 271.8 yards per game with eight touchdowns and just one interception.

Prediction: Nevada 31-28

Result: Nevada 37-26

New Mexico

Dec. 12, at Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas (7:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1)

The Lobos have a new coach in Danny Gonzales and a solid new staff that includes Rocky Long, but they have struggled for some time. Is the personnel in place for a quick turnaround? Doubtful, and New Mexico is up against it as the season is starting due to COVID-19. Nine players and one coach tested positive for the coronavirus and are in quarantine, and a surge in cases in Bernalillo County forced the conference to cancel the Lobos’ opener at Colorado State. For now, New Mexico is practicing in small groups of no more than five, which is no way to get ready to play a football game. Even with seven returning starters on offense, an overall talent deficit will be tough to overcome that way.

Prediction: Fresno State 34-14

Result: New Mexico 49-39

This story was originally published October 24, 2020 at 5:00 AM.