Fresno State has a path to the Pac-12. Here is the road map, and its top selling points
The Pac-12 has some critical decisions ahead of it now that UCLA and USC are departing to the Big Ten in 2024. The outcomes could be cataclysmic for some remaining conference members that have banked on Pac-12 media rights money to fund athletics programs and capital improvement projects.
Those dollars might pale in comparison to what Southeastern Conference and Big Ten programs receive annually, but when an athletics department is counting on the $33.6 million Pac-12 schools received in 2020 or even the $19.8 million they received post COVID-19 in 2021, it is rough to even imagine taking a modest hit there.
If one or two of those Pac-12 schools were to end up in a conference surrounded by Group of Five programs, they likely would get a quarter of that in media rights distributions.
But the former Conference of Champions is exploring expansion partners and prospects to rebuild and remain relevant near the top of college athletics without the Bruins and Trojans. Given what is at stake, the Pac-12 needs to retain its remaining members and think big. But if the conference gets so far as vetting Group of Five conference candidates, Fresno State has a path to the top of the list. Despite decades of missed opportunities to position itself for a move up, Fresno State, with a decrepit football stadium and a number of other strikes against it, can dart past San Diego State, UNLV, Boise State, Colorado State or anyone else at that level.
And, it could get there quickly. Here’s the Bulldogs’ best pitch …
The game-changer
A proposed Fresno County sales tax with proceeds to go toward upgrades at Fresno State received a chilly reception when floated in February. But that was before more was known about the measure, which would generate as much as $36 million annually for the university over 20 years.
Two-thirds of the tax proceeds would go toward the nursing, agriculture, criminology and engineering/STEM programs at the university, provide scholarships for local and low-income students and repair and upgrade campus infrastructure. No more than one-third would go to athletics infrastructure, according to Tim Orman, former chief of staff for Fresno mayors Jerry Dyer and Lee Brand and a longtime political consultant..
If it makes the November ballot and is passed by county voters, it would bolster the Bulldogs’ case on both the academic and athletic side of the Pac-12 equation.
It would be a game-changer, one university official said.
Fresno State still needs a boost academically to reach a Pac-12 level.
Fresno State ranks No. 213 in the U.S. News & World Report best national university rankings, well behind most of the Pac-12. Washington State is No. 179, Oregon State is No. 162, Arizona State is No. 117, Arizona is No. 103, Colorado, Oregon and Utah are tied at No. 99, Washington is No. 59, Cal No. 22 and Stanford No. 6.
It also is behind San Diego State (No. 148), but ahead of UNLV (No. 249) and Boise State (No. 299-391), other Mountain West programs itching to be in a race to the Pac-12.
An influx of tax dollars no doubt would help academic programs on campus.
The tax funds also would allow Fresno State bankable athletics revenue that would push it closer to a Pac-12 level even before an anticipated bump in donor support or ticket sales, and bolster the case that it could finally make athletics facilities upgrades that have long been neglected.
The Bulldogs’ athletics department generated $47.2 million in athletics revenue in 2021. But add in $12 million a year from the proposed county sales tax, add in a heftier chunk of media rights revenue than it receives in the Mountain West Conference, and it would be closer to that Pac-12 level.
Oregon State is at the bottom of the Pac-12, at $72.4 million, according to a database maintained by USA Today.
The market
In losing the Bruins and Trojans the Pac-12 also is losing the second-largest media market in the country with more than 5.7 million homes, just as it maneuvers toward its next media rights deal. The conference has lagged woefully behind the SEC and Big Ten, one of the reasons the Bruins and Trojans opted to blow up 100 years of history.
But that is a mind-bending issue for all of the conference membership.
The Pac-12 needs eyeballs to take into its media rights negotiations for 2024, and that is one thing Fresno State has that most Group of Five-level candidates for the Pac-12 lack.
The Fresno-Visalia market is ranked only 55th in the nation, but by adding Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (20th) and Bakersfield (125th) the number of total homes in 2021 jumps to 2,298,470. That combination would be the 11th-largest market in the country.
It also has much more of a claim to those numbers than many other potential Pac-12 candidates. San Diego is the 27th-largest market, but what percentage of those viewers are loyal to San Diego State? Las Vegas is ranked 40th, but could UNLV make a credible claim to viewers in a saturated entertainment marketplace?
Boise is the 101st-ranked media market.
Fresno State, as one athletics department official said, is baked into the culture of the San Joaquin Valley.
Market size was the primary talking point in the Bulldogs’ modest pitch to the Big 12 when it first explored expansion in 2016 and decided to stand pat.
It also is not enough alone to get Fresno State into the Pac-12. But the conference, in its media rights predicament, cannot ignore those numbers. Or, the potential impact of Fresno County voters.
An expanded Fresno Yosemite International Airport
Air travel is not a concern in football, with teams using charter services. But in basketball and Olympic sports and for fans traveling to road games, the availability of flights to and from a venue can become an issue.
Fresno State had a home basketball game a few years ago after playing on the road, and because of its commercial flight options played on short rest and against an opponent that was in Fresno well before the Bulldogs.
The addition of Southwest and flights by other carriers to and from Fresno has increased accessibility. The average seat capacity for inbound and outbound flights for the summer of 2022 is up 123% from the same time period in 2019, according to airport data, and airlines are expected to continue to meet demand by expanding flight schedules, transitioning to larger aircraft and adding service to new destinations.
The airport also has plans to expand its terminal, with an eye toward adding additional flights.
The fan base
Fresno State sold out its football game against Boise State last season, its first since a 2014 home opener against Nebraska when the venue was packed with Cornhuskers fans.
Would having Pac-12 opponents at Bulldog Stadium boost attendance? It is an interesting question, but it also is worth noting that it is a scheduling strategy adopted by athletics director Terry Tumey when he was hired in 2018.
Tumey made home-and-home and 2-for-1 series against Power Five conference opponents a priority, passing on one-off opportunities to play hefty guarantee games on the road. Fresno State has inked series with Washington State, Kansas and Texas Tech.
Tumey has been confident the Red Wave will turn out for big games and opponents, and that will get a first test this season when Oregon State plays at Bulldog Stadium.
But even without a significant jump in tickets sold, Fresno State would not be an outlier in the Pac-12. The Bulldogs averaged 33,386 in home attendance last season. With UCLA and USC out of the equation, five of the 10 remaining Pac-12 programs averaged between 23,217 (Washington State) and 37,383 (Cal) in average home attendance.
These ‘Dogs will bite
From a competitive standpoint, the Bulldogs at least on the football field could compete at a Pac-12 level immediately. Fresno State last season beat UCLA at the Rose Bowl and had a fourth-quarter lead on Oregon before losing 31-24 at Autzen Stadium. It did not play non-conference games in 2020 due to COVID-19, but in 2019 a team that finished 4-8 opened with a close, 8-point loss at USC and in 2018 the Bulldogs beat UCLA on the road.
Sustaining a level of success has been a challenge for the Bulldogs, who have only 10 10-win seasons in history.
But three of them have come in the past four seasons not impacted by COVID-19 (Fresno State played only six games in 2020). Fresno State is situated in the heart of a footprint every Pac-12 program recruits and with a change in NCAA transfer rules allowing teams to get older and add talent quickly, the Bulldogs under coach Jeff Tedford could extend their run without struggling through a significant dropoff.
Can this actually happen?
It is a long shot, but in college football right now just about anything can happen.
There is a glimmer from former Fresno Bee columnist John Canzano, now in Portland, who reported state legislators in Oregon and Washington want to keep their state universities together in any realignment scenario, binding Oregon State to the more attractive Oregon and Washington State to the more appealing Washington.
If that were to happen, the Pac-12 could survive in some form.
But every school in the conference is looking to maximize its media rights distributions. The Pac-12 could splinter completely, be raided again by the Big Ten or the Big 12. The latter just added Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston and could target ready-made Power Five programs from the Pac-12.
With Oklahoma and Texas headed to the Southeastern Conference and UCLA and USC headed to the Big Ten, the Pac-12 would appear to need a strong response to bolster its media rights payday in 2024.
Could it possibly add two teams from the Mountain West to replace UCLA and USC, which have won 119 and 111 national championships, and call it a day?
The only guarantee at this point is there are many moves still to be made.
From the Pac-12 Friday: “The Pac-12 board of directors met this morning and authorized the conference to explore all expansion options. The 10 university presidents and chancellors remain committed to a shared mission of academic and athletic excellence on behalf of our student-athletes.”