USC/UCLA to Big Ten is latest college football earthquake. What’s it mean for Fresno State?

The landscape is about to change, again, with UCLA and USC leaping to the Big Ten Conference and leaving the Pac-12 with … who knows what, with so many pieces that potentially can move.

But the easy additions come from the neighboring Mountain West, though its schools have long been considered to be well short of Pac-12 material. That narrative has been fueled in part by UCLA and USC, but even with the Bruins and Trojans out of the equation it doesn’t change much.

There really are two candidates in the Mountain West — San Diego State and UNLV.

Nevada, Hawaii, New Mexico, Wyoming, San Jose State have no chance.

Fresno State has had decades to put itself in position, but has foundered time and again, which is not on university president Saul Jimenez-Sandoval or athletics director Terry Tumey. It goes back to former president John Welty and then Joseph I. Castro. These days the Bulldogs are just trying to keep up at a Mountain West level, with a need to upgrade budgets and renovate athletics facilities.

San Diego State of all the Mountain West schools has upward mobility at present. It is in a major media market (No. 27 in 2021), in Southern California, and has a record of sustained success in football and basketball.

The Aztecs are moving into a new football stadium this season and its basketball venue would rank near the top of the Pac-12 in atmosphere and the high-middle as far as a facility. It is solid academically, ranking No. 148 by U.S. News and ahead of Oregon State at No. 162 and Washington State at No. 179.

Because of those things, there has been much less of a stigma for the Pac-12 than with similar Mountain West schools — the Aztecs have played home football games against Utah, Arizona State, Stanford in Cal in the past five seasons and they have home games on the books the next four seasons against Arizona, UCLA, Washington State and Cal.

UNLV would have to be considered a play to the future for the Pac-12 — the Rebels are not there at present, but more capable of reaching a Power 5 level than other Mountain West programs.

That football has been a disaster in the desert forever is a mystery. Basketball has been stagnant, slogging through the Mountain West with its last NCAA Tournament appearance coming in 2013. It also lags academically. But the practice facilities and infrastructure are there on campus for both sports. The Rebels play football in a NFL stadium and while the Thomas & Mack Center is in need of upgrades, a move to the Pac-12 could spur improvements and maybe allow the Rebels to grab back more of a place in a saturated entertainment marketplace.

And, Las Vegas is a draw for fan bases across the conference.

Boise State prospects

Boise State also is a possibility. It obviously has flirted with the Big 12, which eventually found better partners in Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida and Brigham Young and has partners in larger markets than Boise (No. 101) in its existing footprint in the event of future expansion.

The market size is an issue, given the Pac-12 already includes small Pacific Northwest markets. Boise State might make some concessions to make a move to a larger conference. There is no question the Broncos’ football and basketball programs are solid, and on top of that university and athletics leadership is committed to its growth.

The university in April announced plans to upgrade both Albertson’s Stadium and ExtraMile Arena and add a new 5,000-seat arena for its volleyball and gymnastics programs.

It is adding a 120-foot by 50-foot state of the art video board in its football stadium, and at 6,000 square feet it will be by about 1,800 square feet the largest in the Mountain West.

The video board in the north end zone at Bulldog Stadium, by comparison, is 66 by 24 and 1,596 square feet.

Colorado State and Air Force also could be potential targets and are in the existing Pac-12 footprint with Colorado and Utah in the conference, though both have major hurdles.

The Pac-12 when losing UCLA and USC, its two power hitters, would have major questions.

But while adding schools from the Mountain West is the easy answer, the conference might decide it is not the right one considering the recent shifts in the landscape with the Southeastern Conference adding Texas and Oklahoma and the Big Ten adding UCLA and USC.

Major pieces are moving, and the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 will need to be ready and react.

This story was originally published June 30, 2022 at 3:41 PM.