Winter is coming for Fresno politicians in the form of future budget cuts | Opinion
Watching Mayor Jerry Dyer and the Fresno City Council cordially approve a $2.36 billion budget for the 2026 fiscal year reminded me of a “Game of Thrones” spinoff episode.
Not an episode with beheadings, fire-breathing dragons or gratuitous nude scenes – obviously. Just these lines of dialogue from House of the Dragon uttered by Rhaenys Targaryen (aka The Queen Who Never Was).
“These knights are as green as summer grass,” Rhaenys tells husband Corlys Velaryon while they watch a jousting tournament. “None have known real war.”
Thanks to George RR Martin – or someone inspired by his writing, more likely – we have the perfect phrase to describe Fresno’s current set of elected officials regarding their collective experience of approving budgets.
They’re all summer politicians. And winter is coming.
This isn’t to imply Dyer and the seven councilmembers haven’t faced difficult decisions during their tenures. They face difficult decisions almost every day.
But over the last several years, the city’s economic picture has largely been one of violets and daffodils.
During that time Fresno received hundreds of millions in federal and state stimulus funding that, combined with growing sales tax revenues, allowed city leaders to throw money at all sorts of problems and initiatives. Everything from hiring more police officers and firefighters to converting seedy motels into affordable housing to creating a program that protects renters from illegal evictions. Even a free trolley bus service for nightlife revelers.
The city’s budget nearly doubled as a result – from $1.19 billion in fiscal year 2020 to $2.36 billion in 2026.
City revenues decline
Only now, the tide is starting to recede. Several of those outside funding sources (including $27.6 million from the American Rescue Plan Act) have expired or may not be replenished (i.e. state homeless housing funds). At the same time, sales tax revenues are expected to decline (by $5.2 million) over the next 12 months.
Due to those and other shortfalls, Fresno leaders needed to close a projected $50 million deficit before they could pass a balanced budget as required by the city charter.
To get there, Dyer’s administration set a 6% job vacancy rate in almost every city department and tasked each department director with making 5% cuts – on top of the 3% cut during last year’s budget process.
Despite the belt-tightening, Fresno’s financial blueprint for the next 12 months still managed to fund four new police officers to provide security on FAX buses, a $23 million regional fire training center and $1 million apiece for mobile home preservation and to fix up Storyland. Plus dozens of smaller council member requests that were shoehorned in at the 11th hour.
Not to mention the $100 million paving bond that council members unanimously approved during Tuesday’s special meeting minutes before their 7-0 budget vote.
While this year’s budget process may not have been easy, nor those of previous years, they were relative cakewalks compared to the dire straits navigated by Fresno leaders of the not-so-distant past.
Such as 2010, when Mayor Ashley Swearengin declared the city to be in a state “of fiscal emergency” after her 2011 budget eliminated 225 jobs, left 81 openings unfilled and implemented furloughs. Solid waste management was franchised, park maintenance got outsourced and nonprofits took over operations at 10 community centers – all to help plug a $30 million revenue shortfall.
Painful days ahead
Today’s city leaders haven’t faced a budget cycle anywhere near that painful. Not even close.
But you know what? These summer politicians may get their taste of wintertime decision-making soon enough.
Several times during the budget hearings, Dyer and City Manager Georgeanne White alluded to the strong possibility that the 2027 fiscal year will be even more challenging than 2026.
That’s partially due to the fact that California’s budget deficit is forecast to reach between $20 billion and $30 billion next year by the Legislative Analyst’s Office – and that was before Trump administration policies began hemorrhaging the state’s economy.
Fewer dollars flowing from Sacramento will pinch Fresno’s pocketbook. In addition, city leaders have no fewer than 12 labor negotiations to contend with over the next several months, including another sit-down with the powerful police union.
It all adds up to a rather unsettling financial forecast for California’s fifth-largest city and the elected leaders entrusted with making burdensome decisions about staffing and service cuts. For these summer politicians, winter is coming.
