Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns prediction: How will weather, COVID factor in?
Monday’s update: The Raiders are now favored by -3 as the Browns will be without quarterback Baker Mayfield and others because of Covid-19 protocols.
UPDATE: It is expected the Cleveland Browns will get most of its players back for Monday’s game, thus the line movement in favor of the Browns by -3. The Raiders were favored by -3 because of the Browns’ players that were/are on the COVID list. The over/under rose to 41 from 38. We are changing our prediction, too.
The Las Vegas Raiders will try to snap a two-game slide against the Cleveland Browns when the teams meet Saturday (now Monday) at First Energy Stadium.
The Raiders were humbled in a 48-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs this past Sunday, a defeat that pushed Las Vegas further out of the playoff picture with four games remaining.
Las Vegas remains mathematically alive, but for the Raiders to have even a remote shot at the postseason they have to try to win out. First up for the stretch run is a Browns team that is firmly in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Going into the Week 15 games, the AFC playoff picture looks like this:
1. New England 9-4
2. Tennessee 9-4
3. Kansas City 9-4
4. Baltimore 8-5
5. Los Angeles Chargers 8-5
6. Indianapolis 7-6
7. Buffalo 7-6
8. Cleveland 7-6
9. Cincinnati 7-6
10. Denver 7-6
11. Pittsburgh 6-6-1
12. Las Vegas 6-7
13. Miami 6-7
After the Browns, the Raiders face Denver, Indianapolis and the Chargers.
The odds of sweeping those four teams are daunting but not impossibly long, even after the stinker the Raiders put up against the Chiefs. Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr knows how quickly momentum can turn and fill the bandwagon back to capacity.
“Yeah, it’s nuts right?” Carr said this week. “It is a week-to-week game. As I know, if anyone is just a fan of mine, it’s a week-to-week league that’s for sure because one day they love you and the next they hate you. They blame you for everything and then they praise you for stuff that really, that wasn’t even me. If anyone knows that, I know that. But letting our team know that, to keep that mindset.
“Look, it doesn’t matter if we win by a whole bunch of points or if we lose by a whole bunch of points, you win by a close game or lose by a close game, you always move on to the next game,” Carr said. “I know it’s hard for people to comprehend, but that’s why we do what we do. That’s why we’re in the positions that we’re in because we have to compartmentalize a win or a loss, flush it and move on to the next thing.
“We’re still right there and we have four AFC teams that we play, two in the division. It’s not going to be easy, but you’re telling me that we have a chance. The way that we’ve come to work is we do have a chance and that’s a fact. But we have to win football games, that’s all that matters.”
The Raiders will have another element to hurdle in Cleveland: Probable rain.
In addition to the precipitation, winds of about 10 mph and gusts as high as 17 to 20 mph are expected, along with high of 42 degrees that will fall into a “feels like” temperature in the mid- to low-30s as the game progresses. Las Vegas played in “graupel” weather, also known as soft hail, last season and defeated the Browns 16-6.
The Raiders will be without star tight end Darren Waller (back/knee) once again. He hasn’t played since leaving early in the Week 12 game against the Dallas Cowboys.
It is not certain who will be available for the Browns as COVID-19 has hit the team hard. Cleveland as of Thursday had 20 players on the COVID list, including quarterback Baker Mayfield. On the plus side for the Browns, tight end David Njoku was activated off the list.
Odds, TV and Raiders-Browns prediction
In a mild surprise, the Raiders — their chances bolstered by Cleveland’s COVID issues — are favored in the matchup, have risen to be a 1.5-point favorite by Draft Kings, with the over/under set at 38.5.
The game can be seen on the NFL Network starting at 2 p.m. PST.
While the Browns could be without some key players, they still have star defensive end Myles Garrett, who will be a force despite the inclement weather.
The Raiders’ offensive line hasn’t held up all season and could be outworked by Garrett and Co. throughout the game. If that happens, look for the Raiders to lean on the run, especially if the rough weather forecast holds up.
Expect a low-scoring game —possibly well under even that already low total of 38.5 — and with a third of the Cleveland roster potentially sidelined because of coronavirus protocols, Las Vegas should at least squeak by.
Prediction: Raiders 24-22
This story was originally published December 16, 2021 at 3:39 PM.
