David Carr’s NFL sleeper picks: Team to watch, plus 2 rookies are his Fantasy Fliers

The 49ers did it, just last season. They were fourth in the NFL in total offense, up from 16th. The scoring increased by more than a touchdown per game. That obviously helped take them far, from 4-12 in 2018 to Super Bowl runner-up.

The team I expect will make a similar jump this season is the same one that inspired such high expectations a year ago for an organization not all that used to them.

That would be the Browns.

Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and then the relationship with Mayfield and coach Freddie Kitchens, that was more than enough to fuel the imagination a year ago.

But now Cleveland has all of those pieces, and with Kitchens gone after just one season it has an offensive system that really fits its personnel.

Mayfield and Kitchens, that looked like it was something that had some legs, and that’s often the case when there’s some turmoil and it looks like there’s a move coming with the head coach. That was the case with the Browns in 2018. The quarterback and the offensive coordinator develop a tight relationship and the quarterback will vent and the offensive coordinator will vent and they become buddies. But what happens, also, when that guy gets promoted, as Kitchens did, it’s not the same.

Kitchens was good for Mayfield early as a quarterback coach and mentor, but last season it just went sideways. They had the talent and the ability, but the production wasn’t there.

Mayfield will thrive in new offense

So the Browns had to try to look at what Mayfield does well – “Well, he was great in play-action. He likes to extend plays. He plays with a lot of energy, a lot of enthusiasm.” – and what they could build on as an organization. They did a brilliant job in selecting their next coach because Kevin Stefanski fits their franchise quarterback perfectly.

They improved the offensive line, which was a necessity. Cleveland got tackle Jack Conklin from Tennessee and took the No. 10 pick and drafted a tackle in Jedrick Wills from Alabama. Now it’s a strength – they have two solid, bookend tackles.

It’s probably their most improved unit, and if they’re going to run this offense that Stefanski likes to run they’ll need that. Mayfield will be under center a lot. They’ll use a lot of zone runs, and everything will spin off that outside stretch play.

But with a system that’s predominantly play-action, they won’t have to have Mayfield take five- or seven-step drops and try to make big plays from the pocket. They’ll get that zone run going and then with the play-action pass they’ll be able to buy a lot more time and let routes really develop down the field. Beckham and Landry, the tight ends Austin Hooper and David Njoku, they can just let them go to work.

Beckham will be more of a factor

There hasn’t been a lot of talk this offseason from Beckham, and that’s very telling.

When a legit No. 1 wide receiver gets frustrated, like Beckham did last year and before that with the Giants, it’s usually because guys don’t move them around enough and really utilize them. They just let them line up, but then the safety will roll over the top and the corner will get up in their face, or the defense will put their No. 1 corner out there. All the attention goes there.

But in this system, they’re using Beckham effectively. Talking to people in that camp, watching practices, it’ clear that Beckham is moving around. They’re using shifts and motions and they’re hiding him really well. He’s going to thrive in this offense.

Cleveland has everything you want from an offensive personnel standpoint and there are no real holes. That’s why last year there was so much hype around them. Yes, they added Hooper and the tackles, but they already had Beckham and Chubb and that looked nice.

But on the surface that’s all there really was – there was no substance to what that offense really was, no heart.

This should have been the hype year for the Browns. It’s probably a little quieter because of how much noise was around this team last year, but if Mayfield can play like he did a year ago and improve in the areas they’ve asked him to improve, they can be a top-five offense, or very easily in the top 10.

Fantasy Fliers

Picking an RB1, that’s not that difficult. Most everyone is going to go after a Christian McCaffrey, a Dalvin Cook or maybe a Derrick Henry. But you play two running backs and a third can be used as a flex, and two who might become very useful this season are rookies Cam Akers of the Rams and Jonathan Taylor of the Colts.

I think the Rams expect Akers to eventually be the No. 1. They have a good stable of running backs, but Akers can benefit greatly from coach Sean McVay’s system and playing with Jared Goff.

Taylor is teamed with one of the best offensive lines in the league. The quarterback is going to get them into the right play, so Taylor is not going to be running into a loaded box. With some systems in the NFL you call a play and you run it. It doesn’t matter if there are eight, nine, 10 guys and a coach in the box, you run it.

That’s not the case with either the Colts or the Rams. Akers and Taylor are going to have a lot of opportunities to run against favorable looks with good guys in front of them.

This story was originally published September 9, 2020 at 11:57 AM.