Win these three matchups and Fresno State will be Mountain West football champion

Fresno State and Boise State will match wits on Saturday with a Mountain West Conference championship on the line. How they decide to approach and attack could be considerably different than the first matchup between these teams, and not just because the Bulldogs will have quarterback Jake Haener and safety Evan Williams on the field.

Both missed that game weeks ago due to injuries, a 40-20 Boise State victory, vowing as they walked off the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium that they would be back, and since that loss Fresno State has reeled off seven wins in a row.

But Boise State quarterback Taylen Green, a redshirt freshman, has progressed, as well.

Fresno State marked his second career start, and including that game the Broncos have put up 34.1 points per game, a drastic improvement from the 23.3 in their first four games against FBS opponents.

Green will be one of the matchups that the Bulldogs must get right to win a second conference championship in four seasons under coach Jeff Tedford. But there are others that will go a long way in determining which team represents the conference as its champion in the Dec. 17 Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl.

WHAT TO DO ABOUT TAYLEN GREEN?

When Fresno State played Boise State On Oct. 8, the Broncos were coming off a 35-13 victory over San Diego State and Green had shredded what most years is one of the best defenses in the conference. He rushed for 105 yards on eight plays including touchdowns of 17 and 39 yards, beating the Aztecs outside the tackles on option runs.

He averaged 17.5 yards with two touchdowns on four plays running outside left, 11.7 on three plays outside right.

The Bulldogs were intent on taking that away and Green rushed for 26 yards on nine plays, not including two sacks. But he threw two touchdown passes in just 18 attempts and Fresno State was vulnerable against inside runs, and running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty bludgeoned the Bulldogs long before a fourth quarter where they rushed the football on 22 of their 23 plays from scrimmage.

Boise State rolled up 316 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per play.

What now? Fresno State has been adding to its defense the past few weeks, but has sprung a leak in the quarterback run game defending those nimble and those, just not.

Whether in scramble situations or on designed runs, quarterbacks have made plays and the two that the Bulldogs could expect to make good use of their legs are the two who have put up points.

San Diego State quarterback Jalen Mayden rushed the ball seven times (minus sacks) for 48 yards with two touchdowns and the Aztecs put up 28 points. UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield had seven rushing plays for 60 yards with one touchdown and the Rebels scored 30.

The Broncos’ Green presents an interesting problem for Fresno State and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle.

The Bulldogs could try to take away one thing, and be crushed by the other. And, there’s a kicker. Since that game, Green has been much more efficient in the passing game, completing 65.8% of his 155 passes while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt and 233.3 per game with 10 touchdowns and just one interception.

FIND THE RIGHT MATCHUPS FOR MORENO-CROPPER

Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener and wideout Jalen Moreno-Cropper had a rough game last out against Wyoming, connecting on only 3 of 10 targets for 20 yards, their lowest percentage together in three seasons.

In the first four games Haener played returning from an ankle injury, it was 78.8%.

The Bulldogs need to get that worked out, because there will be downfield opportunities for the Bulldogs’ top receiver, who leads the team and is third in the conference with 10 receptions of 25 or more yards.

In the first matchup, with Logan Fife at quarterback, Fresno State took three deep shots and Moreno-Cropper had worked well open on two of them. They just did not connect. But the Broncos have allowed some big plays by teams that are not very proficient throwing the football, much less going over the top of a defense.

The Broncos are third in the conference in passing yards allowed per attempt against FBS-level opponents, but they also are ranked last in yards per completion at 13.1.

Boise State has allowed 31 pass plays of 20 or more yards and nine of 40 or more yards, ranking ninth in the conference in the latter, and they have played seven teams that are ranked 90th in the nation or lower in chunk passing plays of 20 or more yards in Texas-El Paso (93rd), Utah State (98th), Nevada (103rd), San Diego State (118th), Wyoming (126th), New Mexico (128th) and Air Force (130th).

Fresno State since Haener returned from the ankle injury has been able to push the football down field with much more consistency. The Bulldogs quarterback in those five games has hit 13 of 25 passes that traveled 20 or more yards down field, according to Pro Football Focus, averaging 17.0 yards per attempt with five touchdowns.

Before the injury, Haener was 1 of 5.

MAKE THEM MISS

If Fresno State wins a fourth Mountain West title and third in the championship game era, there’s a good chance its skill players had a good afternoon and not just down the field.

If there is a game on the Boise State schedule that could be instructive for the Bulldogs it would be Brigham Young, a 31-28 victory for the Cougars. The Bulldogs and BYU are not that similar — the Cougars use their quarterback in the run game, and Jaren Hall had a 48-yard run against Boise State.

But BYU used a short passing game to stay in manageable down-and-distance situations, stayed on the field (7 of 12 on third downs, 36:01 possession time) and was able to create big plays.

Hall hit 19 of 20 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Focus, and the Cougars wideouts and running backs racked up 216 yards after the catch. They averaged 10.5 yards per play there, and scored a 48-yard touchdown on a screen pass to running back Hinckley Ropati.

That is something the Bulldogs did not take advantage of in the first meeting. But Fresno State is second in the Mountain West with an average of 6.8 yards after the catch, behind only Air Force and its 37 pass completions.

THE GAME

FRESNO STATE at BOISE STATE

When: Saturday, 1 p.m.

Where: Albertsons Stadium

TV: FOX

• Find it fast: Channels 26 on AT&T Uverse, 6, 706, 1026 on Comcast, 26 on DirecTV, 5263 on Dish Network

Radio: Bulldog Sports Network (Paul Loeffler, Pat Hill, Cameron Worrell)

• Find it fast: 1400 AM in Visalia/Tulare; 1340 AM in Fresno; 1280 AM in Stockton; 970 AM in Bakersfield; 92.9 FM in Modesto; 96.7 FM in Fresno

The records: Bulldogs (8-4, 7-1 in the MW), Boise State (9-3, 8-0)

The series: Boise State leads 17-7

Last meeting: Boise State won 40-20 on Oct. 8.

The streak: Boise State has won 2 in a row and 4 of 5

The line: Boise State -5.5