What is Fresno State’s path to joining Big 12? Here are Bulldogs’ resume and challenges

Fresno State is pressed against the glass, wistfully watching as conference expansion continues to play out and eagerly waiting for an invitation to a Power Five conference.

While the Bulldogs try to best position themselves for what would be a long shot move up, there is a big what-if developing when it comes to the Big 12, West Coast Group of Five programs and the value of late-night TV inventory that the conference covets.

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has pulled no punches, right from the start. At his introductory press conference in July he said the conference was open for business when it comes to its next media rights deal, to expansion.

He aggressively has targeted the Pacific time zone and its late-night TV windows, looking to create a national conference that spans coast to coast. If, he said, the schools are additive for the conference, and the focus obviously has been on a Pac-12 wounded by the departures of UCLA and USC to the Big Ten.

But now that Yormark has secured a six-year media rights deal with ESPN and Fox, what if the Pac-12 exceeds, matches or comes close enough to the Big 12 in its ongoing negotiation that its 10 remaining members stick together? What if the Big 12 has no takers from the Pac-12?

“I think the 7:30 p.m. Pacific window is of enough value for the Big 12 to go after a non-Power Five school to be able to consistently play in the window,” said Bob Thompson, the former president of Fox Sports Networks.

“The cable sports networks like to have games in that window. There’s not as much competition at that time, as well. At most you have a Pac-12 game and maybe a Mountain West game in that window on a consistent basis. If the Big 12 wants to be truly national in scope, it’s going to need to have some schools from the Pacific time zone.”

Could it play out for a Fresno State, a UNLV or perhaps San Diego State, which also has been connected to the Pac-12 in conference expansion?

The definitions of “open for business” and “additive” could become far more subjective without Power Five-level expansion partners in the equation. But, all things being equal, the thinking is the Pac-10 sticks together.

“From what I understand on the new Big 12 TV contract there are some provisions for adding schools,” Thompson said. “It seems as though there is a provision that they could automatically add anything from a Power Five conference and at least ESPN for sure is prepared to pay additional dollars. I’m not sure about Fox.

“But I’m not sure that there are going to be any Power Fives out there, available. So, then you go the next step down and you look at the G5s and then you take the commissioner’s comments about looking to add West Coast windows or West Coast schools to be truly national.

“There are a variety of G5 candidates, of which certainly Fresno State would be one.”

The Big 12 already added from the Group of Five taking Cincinnati, Houston and UCF from the American Athletic Conference and FBS independent Brigham Young after losing Oklahoma and Texas to the Southeastern Conference.

COULD BIG 12 IGNORE TOP 40 MEDIA MARKETS ON WEST COAST?

And, if there is a Pac-10, the Big 12 with its media rights contracts with ESPN and Fox could be compelled to delve into Top 40 media markets in San Diego (No. 27) and Las Vegas (No. 40) or the combination Fresno State claims of Fresno (No. 55), Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (No. 20) and Bakersfield (No. 125).

There are a lot of television households in those areas.

“That certainly gives them a leg up over the Boise States of the world, if you ask me,” Thompson said. “But they don’t look just at TV markets. TV markets are important, but with college it’s also about brand and fan following and tradition, how well they participate in a variety of sports.

“For the TV guys, that’s important. But for conferences things are a little more complicated when you get into academics and culture and those types of things.”

Fresno State obviously fits within some of those parameters, for the Big 12.

“I know firsthand the immense branding power of our teams and student athletes,” university president Saúl Jiménez-Sandoval said. “As the only FBS institution within California’s Central Valley, we serve more than 7 million people and constitute a combined media market of over 2.3 million households.

“The sheer magnitude of our Red Wave fan base and the prominence of our brand within a large and growing geographic region is truly unique. No one has what we have.”

But that also is where expansion could get tricky for Fresno State, with its aging facilities and revenue challenges that leave several of its sports programs well behind even Mountain West Conference peers.

Measure E, the Fresno County tax proposal, would generate $36 million a year for Fresno State over 20 years if it’s passed. Two-thirds of those funds must be used for academic programs and upgrades and no more than one-third for athletics, but it would be transformative for the university and its athletics department.

It would expand the nursing, agriculture, criminology and engineering/STEM programs, provide scholarships for local and low-income students and repair and upgrade campus infrastructure in dire need of renovation. Jiménez-Sandoval said the university has $500 million in deferred maintenance projects that need to be addressed, not including the ragged Valley Children’s Stadium, and the latest state budget allocated just $125 million in one-time funds for the entire 23-campus California State University system.

FRESNO STATE, AND RAISING ATHLETICS REVENUES

With or without the tax, Fresno State has taken steps to enhance athletics revenue, loosening its grip on the Save Mart Center while stopping short of giving the department full control of the building for its events.

The athletics department through marketing and ticketing strategies has sold out its football stadium twice in its first four home games and the Bulldogs are ranked first in the Mountain West and third in the Group of Five in average attendance at 38,795 per game. That also is more than Power Five programs Boston College (37,507), Cal (36,412), Duke (27,170), Maryland (31,920), Northwestern (25,916), Oregon State (32,601), Stanford (32,046), UCLA (36,241), Vanderbilt (25,373), Wake Forest (30,572) and Washington State (25,220).

That is not an avenue that has been available at the Save Mart Center, where the Bulldogs basketball, women’s basketball and volleyball teams are tenants in another aging building on campus with antiquated infrastructure including video boards that were outdated when installed in 2020.

The athletics department does not receive a share of parking or concessions revenue at its events, and it does not control the red club seating or prime seats on the floor. But this year, athletics has been allowed to sell into the club seating sections on a season and single-game basis and it is using its ticketing system, Paciolan, rather than ticketmaster at the Save Mart Center. It has the ability to capture fan data, allowing it to send out digital ads, email ticket specials, which have been instrumental in surging football attendance.

It also has added a hospitality area, the NUTRL zone, a concept that in the past has been a non-starter at the Save Mart Center.

Athletics still does not get a share of parking or concessions or control the floor seats, but it is a start and could add revenue that can be pumped back into programs that lag behind Mountain West Conference peers.

The Bulldogs basketball program does not travel on charter flights that are becoming more common in the Mountain West. The conference suggests schools invest $300,000 to buy non-conference games, and Fresno State this season is the only school below that number, spending about $150,000. The Bulldogs also are playing a guarantee game on the road at North Texas, which also is not the norm in the conference.

THE BULLDOGS’ STRONGEST SELLING POINT

Fresno State basketball revenues rank toward the bottom of the Mountain West. It is not far behind Central Florida and Brigham Young, which are joining the Big 12, but considerably lower than schools at the top of one of the best basketball conferences in the nation.

Texas Tech basketball generated revenue of $12.4 million last year, according to data compiled by the U.S. Department of Education. BYU reported $3.7 million in revenue, Central Florida $3.6 million,

Fresno State, just $2.4 million.

But the Bulldogs have won national championships in baseball and softball, produced generations of high-profile athletes and at the moment boast a hard-to-match quartet with outfielder Aaron Judge with the New York Yankees, guard Paul George with the Los Angeles Clippers and quarterback Derek Carr and wideout Davante Adams with the Las Vegas Raiders.

It also has a fan base, increasingly energized, with the return of coach Jeff Tedford.

“The thing that we have to understand, and I think our president is doing an amazing job of making sure people understand this, the representation of this institution goes far beyond the city of Fresno,” athletics director Terry Tumey said. “It literally is spanning a swath of territory from Bakersfield to Sacramento.

“With that, I think, comes an understanding of our value. But the salient point that should not ever be forgotten is the engagement, the strength of engagement of Fresno State, is undeniable. There are not many institutions in California or on the West Coast that have communities that are as engaged as we are at Fresno State. With that comes tremendous value.”

THE BIG 12’S NEXT MOVE

Where will the Big 12 go, if there are no Pac-12 or Power Five programs on the move?

Would it abandon plans of expanding to the West Coast? Move ahead, raiding the Mountain West?

“The Pacific time zone, especially that 7:30 Pacific window, is good,” Thompson said. “The Big 12 can get there with BYU at 8 p.m. Mountain, but BYU is not going to want to play all of its home games at night, especially in November when it’s snowing in Provo. If they want to have consistent West Coast windows they have to get somebody in the Pacific time zone. That’s not going to help Boise State much, but certainly Fresno State and San Diego State would be a primary candidate in my mind.”

Any of them would jump at the opportunity, even taking a reduced conference distribution.

UCLA and USC will enter the Big Ten in 2024 as full members, but Rutgers and Maryland accepted a percentage of their annual distribution for six years when making a move into the conference in 2014. Rutgers, according to one report, will not receive a full share until 2027.

The Big 12 contract runs for six years. The conference, with any new members taking a percentage of revenue, could hit the market again for what one Mountain West source called a second bite at the apple before the Southeastern Conference gets to its next negotiation, before the Atlantic Coast Conference.

If there is an expansion for Group of Five schools it likely will be an apportioned play, the source said.

But that is not a deterrent, at all.

“Would it make sense to take a reduced payment for some period of time, for a G5?” Thompson said. “My comment to that is, yeah, it’s a reduced payment, but it’s a heck of a lot more than they’re getting in the Mountain West.”

This story was originally published November 8, 2022 at 3:00 PM.