Fresno State could host Mountain West championship game. Here’s how it can happen

The average roller coaster ride doesn’t last long, less than two minutes, though there is one in England that goes up and down and this way and that three times as long.

That could be what the Thanksgiving weekend will be like for Fresno State football fans — the ride could be over in a few hours or it could go on for days before the West and Mountain division winners in the Mountain West are decided and a host determined for the conference championship game.

For the Bulldogs, it starts on Thanksgiving, with a 12:30 p.m. kickoff at San Jose State and that first uphill run. They need to beat the Spartans to have a chance to win the West. If that doesn’t happen, that’s it. No rings. Win, though, and it’s all downhill, picking up speed until Friday, 9 a.m. If Fresno State gets by the Spartans, the Bulldogs still will need Boise State to beat San Diego State on Friday morning, and to get their fans to root for the Broncos.

But one plus one equals the Bulldogs’ fifth West Division championship and berth in the Mountain West title game.

“Friday, we’ll have a chance and we’ll just keep the staff away from here, be able to spend a little bit of time with our families, at home, and obviously we’ll be glued to the TV,” coach Kalen DeBoer said.

“But we have to take care of our business first and then that happens. We want Friday morning to be that level of excitement because of what we do on Thursday and then after that our staff knows, depending on the scenarios, who we’ll be getting ready for.”

Both are plausible — the Bulldogs and Broncos, playing on the road, are point spread favorites. But, if it gets there, Fresno State will be holding its collective breath for every second of that Boise State game.

Consider it four hours of a corkscrew run, spinning in 360-degree loops one after the other.

Why Boise State could break the Bulldogs

The Broncos lost starting center Jake Stetz with what could be a season-ending leg injury in a victory over New Mexico last week and if the depth chart holds, will have to go back to Donte Harrington, who started the first four games. Harrington was benched due to issues snapping the football, but Boise State also was ranked just 10th in the Mountain West in rushing offense at that point, averaging 2.5 yards per play and 87.8 per game. It was ranked eighth in the conference in yards per play, seventh in touchdowns scored, tied for fifth in sacks allowed.

Boise State also will be taking on the Aztecs’ 3-3-5 defense, first in the Mountain West in scoring and second in total defense, and it did not go well against New Mexico and its 3-3-5 Light.

The Broncos’ starters accounted for just one offensive touchdown in a 37-0 victory over the Lobos, while also scoring on two blocked punt returns and kicking field goals from 27, 46 and 42 yards.

San Diego State, that’s a much tougher task.

Boise State needs to win to keep its slim chances of winning the Mountain Division alive, and if it does, Fresno State with its head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over the Aztecs will be the West Division champions.

That would be the launch track, coming out of that corkscrew and hitting full speed in a matter of seconds.

Fresno State was just 4-8 two seasons ago, and its 2020 season was decimated by the COVID-19 pandemic. That would be a very fast turnaround for DeBoer and the Bulldogs. But the ride would not be over.

All five teams remaining in contention for the division titles – Fresno State and San Diego State in the West and Air Force, Boise State and Utah State in the Mountain – play on Thursday or Friday.

Utah State plays at New Mexico at 10 a.m. on Friday.

Air Force kicks off at 12:30 p.m. on Friday against UNLV.

How the Mountain West division races play out

The division champs will be decided at the end of that game.

The scenarios in the West:

• The Bulldogs will win the division with a victory at San Jose State and a San Diego State loss to Boise State.
• The Aztecs win it with a victory over the Broncos, or a Fresno State loss.

The scenarios in the Mountain:

• Air Force will win the division if it beats UNLV, Boise State wins at San Diego State and Utah State wins at New Mexico, forging a three-way tie. Or, if the Broncos and the Aggies lose.
• Boise State will win it if it wins at San Diego State and Air Force loses.
• Utah State will win it if it wins and Boise State loses.

If the Bulldogs are in it, determining the host for the championship game will require a dive into tiebreakers.

Both division winners would be 6-2 in conference play, and the first tiebreaker is winning percentage in Mountain West games. The next tiebreaker is head-to-head results, and the Bulldogs have only played Boise State. If the Broncos win and Air Force loses to 2-9 UNLV, Fresno State would be headed back to Boise State, where it won the 2018 conference title with a 19-16 overtime victory.

The only way for Utah State to win includes a Boise State loss, and if that happens the Bulldogs on Friday night are crushing leftover turkey.

But if Air Force wins it forces the conference into its next set of tiebreakers, which are tied to the most recent College Football Playoff ranking.

A computer model could be used to sort out home field

Neither the Bulldogs nor Falcons are ranked this week, so it would come down to a composite average of selected computer rankings, once all games have ended the final weekend of the regular season.

That wouldn’t come until Saturday night, providing an angst-filled lull in that roller coaster ride, that car headed higher and higher with no idea what comes next; could be a camelback, a banana roll.

The Mountain West uses four computer models – Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley Matrix and Wolfe. Headed into the weekend, the Falcons are ahead of Fresno State in three of the four computer rankings:

Anderson & Hester

• Air Force is 36, Fresno State 38

Billingsley

• Fresno State is 31, Air Force 34

Colley Matrix

• Air Force is 33, Fresno State 34

Wolfe

• Air Force is 31, Fresno State 33

If the Bulldogs play in the Mountain West championship game, they will know who and when on Friday, but not where. But they at least will get a chance to prepare, to game plan for an opponent.

The final games of the weekend kick off at 7:30 p.m. Saturday, which makes it a little difficult to save for the potential of buying tickets to the Mountain West championship game, or splurging on Black Friday sales.

“If the computers favor us, then I’m all for it,” DeBoer said. “There are very smart people that figure out the best ways to make it fair and I just trust the leadership of those that make those decisions. We’ve just got to make sure we don’t lose focus on what we can control. Our goal, our No. 1 goal is to just get in there right now, with where we’re at and get in the conference championship and do our job to get in. Then obviously an added bonus would be to be playing at home, for sure. That’s a long way down the road.”

This story was originally published November 23, 2021 at 11:17 AM.