Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State: The center of attention, and things to watch
Fresno State center Bula Schmidt was a freshman in 2019, the last time the Bulldogs played San Diego State. That was the season offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and line coach Roman Sapolu had to make a dizzying number of changes with the starting offensive line due to a rash of injuries, and in Game 10 Schmidt was chucked in there against the Aztecs and their 3-3-5 defensive alignment with all its movement and twisting and blitzes.
It was Schmidt’s third career start, but his first at center and it was a very difficult spot for it.
San Diego State by that point was well on its way to leading the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense, total defense and scoring defense. “Welcome to the fire,” Grubb said.
The Bulldogs’ line, which has started to show more consistency the past two weeks after moving Mose Vavao to right guard and inserting freshman Braylen Nelson into the starting lineup at left guard, is high on the list of things to watch in a matchup on Saturday against the Aztecs.
San Diego State is leading the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense, total defense and scoring defense. So, can the Bulldogs run the ball? Can they protect? Can they control the game?
But that experience Schmidt gained in a 17-7 loss in 2019 could help the Bulldogs in another must-win game in the West Division of the conference. San Diego State has allowed just four teams to score 26 or more points in its past 28 games, and all four of them were playing with experienced centers who could make the correct line calls and help keep those offenses out of third-and-forget about it situations.
“If they get you behind the sticks, which they do fairly consistently … I want to say it’s eight to nine third-and-XL plays per game, which is massive. You’re looking at the cut-up and the third-and-XL cut-up is twice as big as it normally is,” Grubb said. “That presents an immediate challenge and then making sure that you’re not in a position initially getting behind the sticks. Once you get back, you’re starting to play into their game. Once you play into their hands and you’re in long and extra-long consistently the percentages just don’t add up.”
Here’s what the Aztecs’ third-down defense looks like on paper:
Third-and-4 or less: 15 of 35, 42.9%
Third-and-9 or more: 9 of 51, 17.6%
But the one part of the Bulldogs’ run game that has been fairly consistent this season has been first-down runs – Fresno State in its win over Nevada last week rushed for 152 yards on 14 first-down rushing plays including a 64-yard touchdown by Ronnie Rivers. But even taking that play out of the equation the Bulldogs averaged 6.8 yards per play.
The question is whether they can keep that streak working against the Aztecs, who have one one of the best defensive ends in the Mountain West in Cameron Thomas and one of the best tackles in Jonah Tavai.
Schmidt has been one of the Bulldogs’ best and most consistent run blockers and is in a key matchup along with the guards Vavao and Nelson, who will be playing against the Aztecs for the first time.
Success on the ground has been a critical element for the Bulldogs in every game against the Aztecs since 2017 when Jeff Tedford was coaching the Bulldogs, Kalen DeBoer was the offensive coordinator and Grubb the line coach. The run-pass balance has often leaned heavily that way – in a win in 2017 the Bulldogs ran it 38 times with 16 passes, in a win in 2018 it was 43 to 24 and in a loss in 2019 it was 27 to 26.
A prime-time matchup
While Schmidt and the offensive line tangle with the Aztecs in the box, the Bulldogs’ outside receivers will be matched up against the two best cornerbacks they have faced all season.
The Aztecs’ Tayler Hawkins and Dallas Branch are the two highest-graded corners in the Mountain West overall and in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus, and graded higher than any corner from UConn, Oregon or UCLA.
Hawkins, who plays to the boundary, has had only 12 of 27 passes thrown in his direction end in a completion. Branch, who has played in only the past three games and is the starter at the field cornerback, has had 3 of 10.
Aztecs’ underrated offense
It’s easy to point to San Diego State and its run game as the key for the Fresno State defense. The Aztecs have a group of strong, downhill running backs led by senior Greg Bell and the ground game accounts for a significant chunk of the offense – 61.7% of their total yards, the fifth-highest percentage in the nation.
But for the Bulldogs, what happens when San Diego State doesn’t run the football could be just as important.
The Aztecs don’t throw the ball all that well, or often. But as the Bulldogs load the box to stop the run as they have in several games this season, they often have been vulnerable to play-action passes or an opponent’s screen game. And, while the Aztecs’ quarterbacks have hit only 55.1% of their passes this season, two things they have done well when dropping back is throw the football off play-action and work the screen game.
All six of their TD passes have come off play-action, according to Pro Football Focus. Lucas Johnson and Jordon Brookshire have combined to hit 45 of 71 passes for 569 yards with the six touchdowns and one interception when play-action is part of the equation, and 38 for 76 for 265 yards with no TDs and one interception when it is not.
That’s 63.4% to 50%, and 8.0 yards per attempt to 3.5 yards per attempt.
How might that play against the Bulldogs’ defense?
Fresno State has had some average quarterbacks put together big games, most notably UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has completed only 59.4% of his passes, ranking 10th among 11 qualifying quarterbacks in the Pac-12.
But while Fresno State loaded up to slow Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown and allowed the Bruins 114 rushing yards, Thompson-Robinson was going 5 of 7 for 176 yards with two touchdowns on play-action passes, averaging 25.1 yards per attempt and 35.2 yards per completion.
He passed for 278 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-37 loss.
“With our defense, we just have to play with great eyes and fundamentals. I think that’s the key to this game,” Bulldogs safety Elijah Gates said. “And, then, just be physical, because that’s what they lean more toward, the run game. We have to be physical and stop that run.
“You can’t go to sleep. You have to have good eyes. They’ll keep trying to drill us with the run, the run, and then hit us with a big play with play action. We just have to stay locked in mentally and just know that they can throw play-action at any given moment, but we have to play physical and play the run.”
Bulldogs’ kickoffs, and the unexpected score
Fresno State has had some success getting its kickoffs into the end zone, forcing opponents to take a touchback and the ball at the 25 to start a drive. But against Nevada the Bulldogs were 0 of 7, creating opportunities for one of the better return teams in the Mountain West to break a return or start a series at a good spot on the field.
The Wolf Pack did that following four of those kickoffs, starting at the 38-, 34-, 35- and 32-yard lines.
That is not the only game the Bulldogs have had difficulty covering kickoffs – UConn had a 31-yard return, UCLA had a 66-yard return – and the Aztecs hold a significant advantage with the top kickoff return team in the conference and Jordan Byrd averaging 32.2 yards with one touchdown on nine returns.
That makes those kickoffs a hold your breath moment for Bulldogs fans, especially in a game where points figure to be difficult to come by for both teams.
Any score in the return game would be one the Bulldogs just don’t figure to match – Fresno State hasn’t returned a kickoff for a touchdown since 2008 when A.J. Jefferson took one back 92 yards for a score against Nevada.
The Bulldogs have played 161 games and returned 580 kickoffs without taking one all the way back for a score.
Fresno State at No. 21 San Diego State
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson
TV: CBS Sports Network (Dave Ryan, Aaron Murray, Amanda Guerra)
Find it fast: AT&T (Channels 643, 1643), Comcast (418, 732), DirecTV (221), Dish Network (158)
Radio: Bulldog Sports Network (Paul Loeffler, Pat Hill, Cameron Worrell)
Find it fast: Fresno (AM1340), Bakersfield (AM970), Visalia (AM1130), Modesto (FM92.9), Stockton (AM1280), Bulldogs app, iHeartMedia app
The coaches: Kalen DeBoer (9-5 in second season), Brady Hoke (24-16 in fourth season, 89-76 overall)
The records: Fresno State 6-2, 3-1 in MW; San Diego State 7-0, 3-0
The series: San Diego State leads 30-25-4
Last meeting: San Diego State won 17-7 in 2019
The line: San Diego State -1
COVID-19 requirements, if you’re going: The latest Los Angeles County public health guidelines require all fans 12 and older to provide either a photo ID with matching proof of full COVID-19 vaccination or a photo ID with matching negative COVID-19 test results. The negative tests must be from within 72 hours of kickoff to enter the stadium. All fans must wear masks except when eating or drinking.