What are Fresno State, Big 12 discussing? Here are five points to make in expansion talks

Fresno State is playing a waiting game with conference expansion, with the Big 12 watching along with everyone in college athletics as the Pac-12 works its way toward its next media rights deal and a determination whether it will stick together or splinter.

But the Bulldogs are not sitting idle.

University and athletics department officials have been aggressively pushing their case to join the Big 12, according to an industry source familiar with Fresno State and its ongoing talks with conference leadership, which includes a lengthy sit-down between president Saúl Jiménez-Sandoval and commissioner Brett Yormark.

Jiménez-Sandoval declined to address specific discussions he has had with Big 12 officials. But Yormark in discussing expansion has been clear: Brand matters. Performance matters. Cultural fit matters. Time zone matters.

And, a credible case could be made that Fresno State is a better fit in the Big 12 than other speculative expansion targets, which could include the four-corner schools in the Pac-12 (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah) if the conference fails to strike a competitive media rights package.

So what buttons are Jiménez-Sandoval and athletics director Terry Tumey pushing to tie those things and Fresno State together for the Big 12? Here are five possibilities …

AN INTERNATIONAL GATEWAY

During the football season, Yormark toured the new additions to the Big 12, visiting Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston. On his trip to Orlando he expressed a desire for the conference to become more multiculturally relevant, which has not gained much traction in media reports.

Yormark said that on a college campus that has almost twice as many full-time undergraduate students as Fresno State, but by percentages is not as diverse.

Fresno State enrollment is 52.9% Hispanic, Central Florida 26.8%. Fresno State is 12.6% Asian, Central Florida 6.4%. International students represent 5.7% of enrollment at Fresno State, 4.4% at Central Florida.

If the Big 12 has its sights set on international markets in the future, Fresno State and California could provide a gateway and, like Orlando, become a destination for championship or tent-pole events.

That is the question that was posed in a press conference at UCF: What’s the future for Orlando?

“I would say that generally speaking, we have homes to our championships right now,” Yormark said. “But beyond the current agreements, everything is a blank canvas.

“I truly want to take events around this country, whether they be our championship events or tent-pole events that we create and I think bringing an event to Florida would be fantastic for us. When I look at Orlando specifically, this is a global marketplace. Obviously, we have to get our foot in domestically, but we aspire to get into the international marketplace and I think being here in Orlando and doing things here can be a catalyst for that.”

Fresno State and California could be, as well.

BULLDOGS ALREADY WELL ALIGNED WITH BIG 12

There are five Big 12 universities with agricultural sciences programs, with three ranked in the Top 20 in the nation.

Fresno State and the San Joaquin Valley, which includes the top three counties in the nation in agricultural production, fits a Big 12 profile. That, the source said, is something Fresno State is aggressively pushing.

The Valley, with fewer than 1% of U.S. farmland, produces 25% of the nation’s food including 40% of its fruits, nuts, and other table foods and more than $24 billion in related revenues.

Fresno State also is not a stranger on athletic fields. The Bulldogs equestrian team competes in the Big 12 with TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor and when the university fielded a wrestling program it competed in the Big 12.

In addition, Kansas has alumni networks in San Francisco and Los Angeles with more than 9,000 members, according to its alumni association website. Outside of Kansas, that is the second-most of any state behind Texas, with alumni networks in Dallas and Houston.

Kansas State has more than 6,700 alumni in California, second most of any state west of the Rockies. There are more than 11,000 Iowa State alumni in California, many from its College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. Texas Christian has alumni groups in Northern California, Sacramento, San Diego and San Francisco.

THE REVENUE/FACILITIES QUESTION

Texas and Oklahoma are headed out of the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference in 2024, which puts Kansas at the top of the conference’s public schools with more than $118 million in athletics revenue in 2022, according to Sportico. That is more than double what Fresno State raked in, and in the Big 12, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Iowa State and West Virginia all reported more than $100 million in athletics revenue.

There, Fresno State does not look much like a Power Five athletics department. But past expansion can be instructive for the Bulldogs, and for the Big 12 leadership in exploring expansion candidates.

Utah jumped to the Pac-12 from the Group of Five and in 2010, its final year in the Mountain West, it had $30.9 million in athletics revenues, according to USA Today. That was well behind the conference it was joining — Cal reported $69.3 million in revenues that year, Washington $64 million, UCLA $61.9 million, Arizona $58.1 million, Arizona State $56.5 million, Oregon State $55.6 million.

Utah also did not receive a full share of conference media rights revenue for four years, receiving a 50% cut, then a 75% cut along the way, according to reports. But it was able to generate significantly more revenue through ticket sales and donations when taking a step up to a Power Five conference, and by its fifth year in the Pac-12 and with a significant boost in media rights monies its athletics revenues had increased to $62.4 million.

In 2022, it was up to $115.7 million.

Fresno State could follow that pattern with increased revenues from ticket sales and student fees, donations and by gaining more control at the Save Mart Center, where it does not have access to the best seats in the venue or any revenue from parking or concessions sales.

Upgrades to Valley Children’s Stadium and athletics facilities also could spur donor contributions, as it did at Utah.

In 2022 the Utes banked $28.5 million in donations with much of it tied to premium seat sales and a 2021 expansion of Rice-Eccles Stadium and a change in the proportion of season ticket sales that goes toward funding scholarships, according to an athletics department spokesman.

In 2010, its final year in the Mountain West, Utah had $5.8 million in donor contributions. In 2020, before the stadium expansion, Utah recorded $11.7 million in revenue through donations.

Fresno State has the potential to tap deeper into a county that in the most recent accounting had a gross domestic product (the overall value of goods and services) of $41.8 billion and make up ground in a facilities race.

But the majority of athletics revenue comes from media rights, conference and NCAA distributions and licensing.

Fresno State, if entering the Big 12, would not receive a full share from the start. But it has the ability to make up ground as Utah did, building while moving toward an equal share of conference revenues in the future.

Any cut of media rights money from a Power Five conference would be a significant boost to the Bulldogs athletics department. In 2022, it received only 18.9% of its $54.1 million in revenues from media rights, licensing and conference and NCAA distributions.

Kansas, by comparison, received 53.3% of its $118 million from media rights, licensing and conference and NCAA distributions.

MEDIA MARKET SIZE

TVs matter to the Big 12, which in October extended its media rights contracts with ESPN and FOX for six years and $380 million and Yormark has said he wants to capture West Coast TV windows.

The Fresno/Visalia market is ranked No. 53 in the nation, but by adding No. 20 Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto and No. 123 Bakersfield the Valley becomes the 11th-largest in the nation with 2,383,380 television households.

The Bulldogs’ reach into Sacramento is debatable, but even adding 50% of that market it would represent the 19th-largest market with 1,632,340 households and adding just 25% it would still rank 24th with 1,256,920.

Markets to compare:

Phoenix/Prescott: 11th; 2,138,870 TV homes

Denver: 16th; 1,792,540

Salt Lake City: 29th; 1,148,120

San Diego: 30th; 1,107,010

Las Vegas: 40th; 870,240

Tucson/Sierra Vista: 65th; 490,560

Boise: 98th; 330,040

TV market size is but one factor in expansion, Bob Thompson, the former president of FOX Sports, told The Bee last November. Brand, fan following, tradition and cultural fit all matter.

But Fresno State would stack up favorably against the four-corner Pac-12 schools and other expansion candidates, and add to a conference that includes some smaller designated market areas.

From raw population standpoint, Fresno State also benefits the Big 12 — Fresno County has a population of 1.01 million and there are more than 4 million in the Valley, more than in states with Big 12 schools West Virginia (1.8 million), Kansas (2.9 million), Iowa (3.2 million) and Oklahoma (3.9 million).

AN ENGAGED RED WAVE

Fresno State has been through some lean and trying football seasons, but Tumey and his staff have re-energized a storied fan base, increasing the number of tickets sold every year through his tenure as coach Jeff Tedford has built a program that can sustain success.

Over the past five football seasons, the Bulldogs have seen a year over year increase at Valley Children’s/Bulldog Stadium of 28.03%, the sixth-highest in the nation and by far the highest on the West Coast.

Here is a five-year comparison with the four-corner schools in the Pac-12, and select Mountain West programs that could be expansion candidates.

Fresno State: +28.03%

UNLV: +16.52%

Utah: +9.81%

Boise State: +6.29%

Arizona: +4.87%

San Diego State: +0.55%

Colorado State: -3.69%

Colorado: -9.04%

Arizona State: -11.73%

Worth noting: UNLV in 2020 moved into Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders. Utah in 2021 added nearly 6,000 seats at Rice-Eccles Stadium, expanding capacity to nearly 51,000, with new premium seating options including a field-level club and box suites.

Fresno State is targeting similar upgrades at its football venue, but made its attendance gains despite playing in a stadium that lacks upside for fans outside a team that has won 75% of its home games the past six seasons.

For the university and athletics department there is an upside to selling a long overdue stadium renovation that is tied to an invitation into the Big 12 and national profile, and its rising attendance numbers would suggest the timing is right.

This story was originally published February 22, 2023 at 3:28 PM.