Warszawski: Super Bowl outcome should turn on these five keys
Super Bowl 50 between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos is finally here.
Well, almost. There’s still a 17-hour pregame show (at least it seems that long) to endure.
When Sunday’s 3:30 p.m. kickoff finally arrives, and not a millisecond too soon, here are five things I’ll be watching for:
Can Denver put the heat on Newton?
Cam Newton might very well be Superman, but he doesn’t fly solo. The Panthers’ quarterback and presumptive MVP benefited this season from an offensive line that kept him out of harm’s way.
The better protected Newton is, the better he performs. Newton’s quarterback rating of 112.6 when given a clean pocket ranked third in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. But when under pressure, Newton’s rating dipped to 71.1 and 19th overall.
Against a Denver defense that produced an NFL-leading 52 sacks, Newton’s human shield faces its toughest test.
He controls that whole offense. As Cam goes, their offense goes.
Broncos linebacker Von Miller
The only glaring weakness in Carolina’s protection is right tackle Mike Remmers, whom PFF rated the 60th-best tackle in pass blocking.
Since Broncos sack artist Von Miller rushes from the left side nearly 75 percent of the time, his individual battle with Remmers is arguably the game’s most critical.
“He’s got an abundance of moves, so it’ll be a great challenge,” Remmers said last week.
Denver’s best chance of corralling Newton – and tripping up the Panthers’ offense – will be to exploit this mismatch.
Will Kuechly go cuckoo?
With apologies to Newton and Miller, the best pure football player on the Levi’s Stadium turf might be a certain Panthers middle linebacker with bushy hair and paper-boy looks.
But don’t let appearances deceive. Luke Kuechly terrorizes offenses with his sideline-to-sideline hustle and near-perfect tackling. In fact, PFF says he missed just six tackles all season. Six!
During the playoffs, Kuechly has expanded that repertoire by returning interceptions for touchdowns in each of Carolina’s wins. And if No. 3 comes against Peyton Manning, no one should be the slightest bit surprised.
For all of Manning’s prowess in film study and pre-snap reads, the 39-year-old quarterback may meet his equal in the 24-year-old linebacker who’s already a three-time All-Pro. This will be like a chess match between two grand masters.
“He’s in the film room 24-7,” Panthers defensive tackle Kawann Short said of Kuechly. “When I come in in the morning, he’s there. When I leave, he’s there as well.”
Which team handles the Super stage?
Take it from Ricky Manning Jr., who played in two of them. The Super Bowl is unlike any other football game in terms of atmosphere and intensity.
“Kickoff, all those light bulbs flashing, it’s like a fantasy,” recalled the former Edison High School star, who twice came out on the losing side. “I don’t even remember anything from the first half. It’s like it wasn’t even real.”
Kickoff, all those lightbulbs flashing, it’s like a fantasy.
Ricky Manning Jr. on his experience in two Super Bowls
Though the Broncos have the edge in experience – 13 players remain on the active roster from Super Bowl XLVIII two years ago – that experience wasn’t necessarily good, as indicated by the 43-8 final score against Seattle.
Manning is the only Denver player who has won a Super Bowl. Carolina has three in tight end Ed Dickson, offensive tackle Michael Oher and safety Roman Harper.
Is experience a prerequisite for winning? Of course not. But if the Panthers start slowly after bolting to big leads in their two playoff wins, Super nerves are probably the reason.
Who will be the surprise star?
While big names dominate the pregame hype, the game itself often produces unlikely stars.
Thirteen months ago, had you even heard of Malcolm Butler? Be honest.
The list of surprise Super Bowl heroes is lengthy: Tim Smith ran for a Super Bowl-record 206 yards after totaling just 126 in his rookie season. Larry Brown had two interceptions gift-wrapped to him. David Tyree made an incredible catch by trapping the ball against his helmet and never caught another NFL pass.
Who might be this year’s Jack Squirek?
It could be Ted Ginn, the Panthers receiver who drops a ton of passes but always gets open deep. It could be Shaquil Barrett, the Broncos linebacker who racked up 5.5 sacks and four forced fumbles in a backup role. It could be Kurt Coleman, the Panthers safety who had two interceptions during the NFC championship game but still flies below the radar.
Will the locals make an impact?
The central San Joaquin Valley is represented at Super Bowl 50 with Broncos tight end Virgil Green of Tulare and Panthers linebacker Ben Jacobs, the third-leading tackler in Fresno State history.
Green caught a career-high 12 passes during the regular season (on 15 targets) and two in the playoffs (on three targets). He has played on 34.5 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and 52.3 percent on special teams, per pro-football-reference.com.
While Green possesses good hands and straight-line speed, fellow tight ends Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis are more involved in the passing game. But the 6-foot-5, 255-pounder does produce big plays. Three of those 12 receptions spanned 20 or more yards.
Unless something happens to Kuechly, Jacobs’ best chance to make an impact will come on punt and kickoff coverage. The 6-4, 240-pounder played on 82.4 percent of Carolina’s special teams snaps.
Prediction time
The Year of the Cam continues with Carolina’s first Super Bowl triumph. Panthers 24, Broncos 16
Marek Warszawski: 559-441-6218, marekw@fresnobee.com, @MarekTheBee
This story was originally published February 6, 2016 at 5:06 PM with the headline "Warszawski: Super Bowl outcome should turn on these five keys."