Warszawski: Don’t expect performance for the aged ... er, ages by Peyton Manning

If the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 50 on Sunday, it’ll be because they boast the NFL’s best combination of edge rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.

It’ll be because defensive coordinator Wade Phillips devises an innovative game plan (rush three and drop eight?) that vexes Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.

It’ll be because running backs C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman find soft spots in the Carolina defense.

It almost certainly won’t be because of anything Peyton Manning does with his right arm.

Look, I get it. Manning is one of the NFL’s greatest all-time performers, the only five-time MVP and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He deserves all the plaudits and accolades. He merits all the attention. His career has been a pleasure to watch.

But let’s be honest: At 39, the oldest age for a starting quarterback in Super Bowl history, Manning isn’t anywhere near his former level.

At this juncture, after all the injuries and surgeries, Manning’s right arm has all the force of a limp noodle.

It’s a morsel of uncomfortable truth that hardly anyone wants to admit.

Not Broncos coach Gary Kubiak: “Well, I don’t see that. Everything I’ve seen since I’ve come here, he’s been healthy 100 percent, he’s made all the throws, and I didn’t see anything different this past month.”

Not outspoken Panthers cornerback Josh Norman: “I hear people saying Peyton Manning lacks arm strength. ... I don’t know what tape they were watching.”

And certainly not Bill Polian, the guy who drafted him out of Tennessee: “It is incorrect to say his arm strength has decreased. Watch tape. It hasn’t.”

Not sure what tape those guys are watching, but it had to be on VHS.

Statistically, this has been the worst of Manning’s 18 seasons. He completed 59.8 percent of his passes (the lowest rate since his rookie year) with nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

His 69.7 passer rating was not only a career low, it was the lowest of the 34 quarterbacks who had enough attempts to qualify. Lower than backup Brock Osweiler (86.4), who led the Broncos to a 5-2 record when Manning was sidelined by plantar fasciitis.

Over the years, much has been written about how Trent Dilfer is the worst quarterback in history to win a Super Bowl. But even Dilfer’s 2000 campaign with the Baltimore Ravens was statistically superior to what Manning did this season.

I’m not saying Kubiak should start Osweiler on Sunday. There’s more to playing quarterback than arm strength, and Manning clearly has the edge in experience and football intelligence. His mind remains as sharp as ever.

But Denver has to be careful. If Carolina jumps out to an early lead (like the Panthers did against Seattle and Arizona), expecting Manning to make up the deficit with downfield passes is the worst mistake Kubiak could make.

Picture Manning getting benched in what’s expected to be his final game, and Osweiler leading a Broncos comeback. Now that would be a story.

Among the Super Bowl participants, the most honest comments about Manning’s deteriorating arm strength have come from Manning himself.

“My arm feels OK,” he said. “My arm has not been the same since I got injured four years ago. It just simply hasn’t been. I had a strange injury. I had a neck injury that caused some nerve problems in my right arm.”

It sure sounds as if Manning has come to terms with certain realities. While those around him keep whistling Dixie.

“We all think it’s blasphemy (to doubt Manning’s arm strength), because Peyton, he still has it,” Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall told the NFL Network. “You know he has what it takes.”

For a more realistic assessment, listen to the words of Hall of Fame quarterback and ESPN analyst Steve Young.

“This game for (Manning) has got to be really maddening, because this is the possible capstone, and he’s incapable of doing – I’m not going to say half – but a significant portion of what he used to do,” Young said. “You can see that front foot ...

“He has to catapult his body,” Young continued. “He’s doing some remarkable, physical feats to be able to throw the ball at all. It’s amazing how he’s figured out how to just do enough.”

It’s possible Manning could turn back the clock and summon a performance for the aged ... er, ages.

He’ll benefit from the two weeks between games and from the mild Bay Area temperatures (Sunday’s forecast calls for a high of 73 degrees) and light winds that should help prevent Manning’s passes from resembling shuttlecocks.

In fact, the pool report of Thursday’s Broncos practice written by Sports Illustrated’s Peter King described Manning as “completing three deep throws in team drills with but one incompletion of a deep ball.”

So maybe the Fountain of Youth is somewhere off Highway 101. Maybe the Manning of old shows up one last time and puts an exclamation point on his storied career.

If that happens, I’ll eat heaping platefuls of delicious crow.

But based upon what we’ve seen this season, that’s nothing but a fluttering hope.

For the 5 1/2 -point underdog Broncos to win the Super Bowl, it won’t be because of Manning. It’ll be in spite of him.

This story was originally published February 5, 2016 at 7:03 PM with the headline "Warszawski: Don’t expect performance for the aged ... er, ages by Peyton Manning."