So much for unity: Fresno’s final redistricting maps further deepen political divide
Now that the lines of California’s political jigsaw puzzle have been drawn for the next decade, we can start filling in the blanks.
A year ago, I suggested to members of the Citizens Redistricting Commission that Fresno and Clovis be included in the same congressional district. Bring every voter in the population hub under the same umbrella and let the best candidate win.
Naturally, the commission didn’t listen. Rather than unite the Fresno metro area, the final maps members approved late Monday night chops us into three slices that maintains Fresno’s north-south divide while trimming Clovis out of the picture.
The bulk of Fresno, as far north as Herndon Avenue on the city’s outskirts and dipping to Shaw Avenue in the interior, anchors a relatively compact 21st District that boasts a +16 Democratic voter registration advantage, according to 538.com. The boundaries seem almost ideally drawn for nine-term Congressman Jim Costa, who officially launched his re-election bid Tuesday.
There had been some conjecture about state Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula making a run, but Costa’s announcement likely nips that in the bud. In addition, Fresno County prosecutor Andrew Janz tells me he is not running, and he endorsed Costa.
“No Democrat is going to want to challenge Costa in that district,” is how one insider assessed things.
Costa lives in Old Fig Garden, which sits conveniently within the redrawn boundaries and was a hot topic of discussion among commission members — some of whom were confused between Old Fig and the Figarden Loop a few miles away.
While it became a popular Twitter pastime to heckle commissioners for their lack of Fresno knowledge, the snark could be redirected. I’d bet many Fresnans don’t know the difference either, and even fewer can navigate the Fig Garden Loop without getting lost.
Meanwhile, most of northwest Fresno and almost the entirety of northeast Fresno serves as the population hub for a sprawling 5th District that encompasses many of California’s Mother Lode counties and extends almost to Roseville. This district has a +17 Republican tilt.
And what about Clovis? The growing suburbia on Fresno’s shoulder finds itself grouped into a ridiculously drawn 20th District assigned to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. If the commission’s goal was to corral every Republican between Clovis and Bakersfield (+31 GOP), they succeeded beautifully.
At the same time, separating northeast Fresno and Clovis into different districts — the boundary traces Willow Avenue north of Herndon — complicates matters for some of the hopefuls aiming to replace Congressman Devin Nunes.
Nunes shocker triggers confusing special election
Nunes’ surprising announcement that he planned to resign at year’s end, which would trigger a special election, set the table for a wild and potentially confusing 2022 campaign season.
Residents of Nunes’ current district are likely to be asked to cast ballots in a special April primary, followed by a final vote in June. On the same June ballot, those voters will choose among primary candidates in a redrawn district to represent them on Capitol Hill for the next two years.
Even though several hopefuls have declared for the special election, or taken steps in that direction, there is some debate over how much advantage the “incumbent” tag will matter in this case.
Sure, you get to be a member of Congress for six months. But aside from a little extra fundraising oomph, will that distinction really help a candidate get elected for a full term by almost a completely different set of voters?
“It could be a big deal, and it could be a red herring: an unnecessary waste of time and money,” another insider said.
Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig was among the first local Republicans to officially declare, while state Sen. Andreas Borgeas formed an exploratory committee. They’ve since been joined by Elizabeth Heng, who unsuccessfully challenged Costa in 2018.
On the Democratic side, Phil Arballo, Eric Garcia and Lourin Hubbard (each of whom originally targeted Nunes) have all continued their campaigns with eyes on the special election.
New congressional district looks good for Borgeas
Although it’s conceivable the voters of Nunes’ current district would replace him with a Democratic temp, a Republican seems more likely based on voter registration. And whomever wins would then position themselves to run for re-election in the newly drawn 5th District that dips into north Fresno.
The special election race between Republicans Magsig, Borgeas and Heng (who could be joined by Fresno County Supervisor Steve Brandau, Fresno City Councilmember Garry Bredefeld and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux) is tough to call. However, based on the redrawn maps, Borgeas seems best positioned to win a full term in the new district.
Borgeas’ seat in the state Senate is up for re-election in 2022. However, the commission’s new maps leave him in a district that is heavily tilted toward Kern County and unlikely to win.
Nunes’ resignation and the new 5th District are Borgeas’ saving grace. The final map includes not only Borgeas’ northwest Fresno base, but also many of the same counties and communities in his current Senate district. Giving him a handy home field advantage.
I asked members of the redistricting commission to bring Fresno and Clovis together. Instead they took our region’s long political divide and only deepened the lines.
Democrats grouped in one district, Republicans in two others — with large voter registration advantages on either side. It’ll be a while (at least until the maps get redrawn again in 2031) until we see a competitive race in any congressional election.
This story was originally published December 22, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
