Fresno’s congressional races have gone stale. Redistricting will help freshen them up
No matter how many TV spots, digital ads or mailers they’re subjected to, the vast majority of Fresno-area voters have long decided who they want representing them in Congress.
Residents of District 16, by this point, are voting for eight-term Democrat Jim Costa or whomever the Republicans trot out against him. Either way, it’s automatic.
In District 22, the two sides are even more polarized. Voters either love nine-term Republican Devin Nunes or they loathe him. Which is the way Nunes seems to like it.
The only fluidity is found in District 21, where Republican David Valadao served three terms before being edged by Democrat TJ Cox in 2018. Now there’s a rematch.
Up and down the central San Joaquin Valley, the races have gone stale.
Fortunately, it’s nearly time for a shake up.
Following this election cycle and results of the 2020 census, California undergoes a process known as “redistricting.” As mandated by the Voters First Act of 2008, new boundaries for both congressional and state legislative districts will be drawn by a 14-member independent commission.
How different the Valley’s congressional districts look in 2022 depends on several factors, not the least of which is whether California will get to keep 53 seats in the House of Representatives. No sure thing, based on population trends.
According to a recent study at Claremont McKenna College, California stands to lose one House member following the 2020 census and possibly two. The study identifies San Gabriel Valley as the region most likely to lose a seat, followed by Orange County/San Diego County and the Central Valley.
If California loses a House seat (or two) during redistricting, no matter where the pinch is applied, the domino effect would be widespread. Which is what Valley voters tired of the same ol’ choices desperately need.
Drawing the new lines is the responsibility of the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, whose five Democratic appointees, five Republicans and four No Party Preference were named earlier this year. Members examine statewide population trends and propose district boundaries containing equal numbers of people.
Even if California keeps 53 House seats, history tells us the lines will be altered.
That’s what happened the last time we went through redistricting. From 2003 to 2012, Nunes’ district (then the 21st) didn’t include almost all of north Fresno like it does today. Back then everything north of Shaw Avenue and west of Cedar Avenue belonged to the 19th, home to Republican George Radanovich.
Remember him? Cox — yes, the same TJ Cox now representing the 21st District — surely does. In 2006, Radanovich cleaned his clock with 61% of the vote.
Costa’s district (then the 20th) also got reconfigured. He kept the core of Fresno but swapped much of the current 21st for parts of Madera and Merced counties.
Redrawing lines in Valley
How will the next set of boundaries be drawn? Based on the 2011 timeline, we can expect to see a first draft in June followed by a final report in August.
The 14-member commission does not include anyone from Fresno, Madera, Merced, Tulare, Kings or Kern counties. Oddly, two are from San Joaquin County: Trena Turner, a Democrat from Stockton; and Neal Fornaciari, a Republican from Tracy.
Let’s hope the lack of central and southern San Joaquin Valley representation doesn’t prompt members to keep the lines more or less where they are.
Because the status quo no longer serves our region’s interests.
The other day I was studying the current boundaries when something struck me: Residents of Fresno County are represented by four different congressmen: Costa, Nunes, Cox and Republican Tom McClintock, whose sprawling 4th District along the western slope of the Sierra abuts Nunes’ in the Clovis foothills.
That’s four House members for a county of 1 million residents — only one less than the total number of Fresno County supervisors.
Conventional wisdom would say that’s a good thing: More representatives equals more representation. But that assumes the Valley’s House delegation actually works together instead of at cross purposes.
I’m told that used to be customary on issues like water and transportation. Recently though, thanks in large part to Nunes’ scorched-earth brand of politics, examples of across-the-aisle cooperation have become increasingly rare.
Group Fresno, Clovis together
How can redistricting best freshen things up?
Here’s an idea: Include all of Fresno and Clovis, plus a few nearby cities to make the population numbers work, in the same congressional district.
I can think of few better ways to erase the north-south divide that often feels more determined by geography than city limits.
Instead of separating residents of the Fresno metro area, put everyone in the same hamper. Compel citizens of Democratic-heavy districts in central, southwest and southeast Fresno, plus the purple patch in northwest, and those in Republican strongholds in northeast Fresno and Clovis to work together.
Sound nuts? Perhaps. But in researching the Valley’s congressional districts since the 1970s, greater Fresno has always been divided. Have those divisions helped our region in Washington, D.C., or held us back?
Looking at our current situation, I tend to believe the latter.
The possibilities are tantalizing. Maybe in two years we’ll end up in a spot where Nunes and fellow Republican Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield wind up fighting for the same seat. Wouldn’t that be a kick? Likewise, Costa could find himself pitted against the Cox-Valadao winner.
Or imagine this battle royale: Costa vs. Nunes for the hearts and minds of greater Fresno.
Anything would be better than the stale status quo.
This story was originally published October 22, 2020 at 11:18 AM.
