‘A huge responsibility dodge.’ Officials take easy way out on Creek Fire near Fresno
My news story on the U.S. Forest Service declaring the cause of the Creek Fire as “undetermined” went online Friday at 12:42 p.m.
At 12:53 p.m., the reactions of Fresno County residents started trickling into my inbox. Among the first was one that contained the subject line of “Hogwash!”
“Do they really expect us to believe that?” the email read. “Looks to me like a huge responsibility dodge. Just sayin’ …”
Ding. Ding. Ding. We have a winner.
Following a 10-month investigation that included “numerous” interviews along with “countless hours hiking rugged terrain,” the best minds in the Forest Service investigative unit concluded lightning was the probable cause of the largest single-incident wildfire in California history — while not ruling out arson or careless smoking.
I mean, really? That’s the best they could do?
“It seems pretty obvious the Forest Service picked the lowest-hanging fruit,” said Toby Wait, whose Big Creek home was among 853 structures consumed in the 379,895-acre conflagration.
“You would think that after all these months, they could say whether it was a human-caused accident. But undetermined? To me, that’s the easy way out.”
Ty Gillette, who lost his home and business in Pineridge, had a similar reaction to the investigation’s ambiguous determination.
“It took so long, I knew there wasn’t going to be something obvious or something no one had thought of,” Gillette said. “It just seemed like the most defensible report for them to write.”
Lightning as fire’s probable cause raises questions
At one point, I too believed lightning was the most probable cause. But that hunch didn’t pass further scrutiny. There were no lightning strikes in the vicinity of Big Creek Canyon on Sept. 4, 2020, according to satellite imagery reviewed by myself and others. As far as we could figure, the closest occurred in mid-to-late August.
If the Forest Service has contradicting evidence, I’d sure like to see it. While it’s possible for a tree struck by lightning to smolder for weeks before igniting into flames, this particular location makes that highly unlikely for two reasons: steady updraft winds and easy visibility from Big Creek by both residents and employees of electricity provider Southern California Edison.
“I lived there for 10 years. A lightning strike is not going to sit in that canyon without anyone noticing any type of smoke. Not in September in the middle of a drought,” Wait said. “Edison has a billion dollars worth of infrastructure in that canyon. They have helicopters flying in and out. You’re going to tell me they didn’t see anything?”
The Forest Service’s conclusions about what didn’t start the wildfire, potential causes ruled out by investigators, is equally puzzling.
They say it wasn’t caused by an illegal marijuana garden — one of the most persistent rumors since the fire began with some evidence to that effect. Nor by any use of equipment, an escaped campfire, a burn pile that got out of control, power lines, firearms, kids fooling around, glass reflection/refraction or spontaneous combustion.
Which essentially leaves us with lightning (again, let’s see the supporting evidence), arson or a careless smoker.
Forest Service’s investigation feels unsatisfactory
Seems a little thin for months and months of looking into the cause of a wildfire that cost $193 million to fight and destroyed in excess of $250 million of homes and property throughout Fresno and Madera counties.
Don’t you think?
“The Forest Service are good, hard-working people, but people up here are entitled to some type of cause,” said Wait, the former superintendent and principal of Big Creek School. “If they truly can’t determine it, they should’ve said so months ago.”
Since last September, I’ve spoken and corresponded with dozens of people directly impacted by the Creek Fire. Many lost their homes and most of their possessions. Others lost mountain cabins owned by their families for generations. Others were evacuated or spent weeks indoors because of the smoke.
While knowing the fire’s cause wouldn’t fix any of that, it would provide a sense of closure. But “undetermined” feels wholly unsatisfactory. “Undetermined” leaves open questions and fans rumors. “Undetermined” does not inspire much belief the Forest Service truly wants to get to the bottom of this, or wants to the public to know.
While Sierra National Forest Supervisor Dean Gould considers the matter closed, rest assured that’s not a universal view.
“This doesn’t mean we’re going to stop figuring out what happened.” said Gillette, whose Cressman’s General Store reopened in May.
Nope. We’re not.
This story was originally published July 17, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
