Creek Fire is a $500 million-plus mystery. How investigators plan to solve the case
With the Creek Fire 100% contained, federal, state, and county officials are calculating a price tag for the biggest single wildfire in California history. It already tops half a billion dollars, according to Fresno County officials.
The Creek Fire began burning on Sept. 4 around 6:30 p.m. in the Big Creek drainage, in the forest wedged between Shaver and Huntington Lakes. It quickly raced through both lakes, Mammoth Pool and the San Joaquin River Canyon, burning a total of 379,895 acres before fire managers declared full containment on Dec. 24.
Officials attributed the rapid growth to a large number of dead trees, dry conditions, and climate change, and its long duration to rough terrain on the northeast portion of the fire and stubborn, smoldering logs that took multiple snowstorms to stamp out.
The Sierra National Forest Service, which mostly oversaw the firefighting efforts, pegged the cost of managing it at $193 million, according to Alex Olow, spokesperson for the U.S. Forest Service. That includes fire suppression, equipment, and human resources.
At one point, there were nearly 3,000 fire personnel working to suppress the wildfire.
The fire ruined a total of 853 structures, the bulk of which were single-family homes, according to Olow. It also damaged 64 structures, including 34 houses.
The fire consumed at least $250 million worth of homes, according to Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magisg, who oversees that area. The fire damaged wells and septic systems, too, and the cost to clean up debris could top $100,000 per property, especially if chemicals from cars and batteries seeped into the soil, he added.
The county has pegged damage to roadways and other county-owned assets above $20 million. They hope to finish calculations in a few weeks, by which time Magsig expects the sum to near $30 million.
“Between $193 million to fight the fire, the cost to clean up the debris, and the cost to rebuild, it’s well in excess of half a billion dollars,” Magsig said.
What caused the Creek Fire, and why is the investigation taking so long?
Federal and state officials declined to give details on the cause of the Creek Fire, citing an ongoing federal investigation.
Jeff Sadowski, assistant special agent in charge for U.S. Forest Service Law Enforcement and Investigations, said his team is leading the investigation into the cause and origin of the wildfire, but Cal Fire is also involved.
Sadowski was unable to provide a timeline for the investigation, but he said on “larger, more complex ones like this, it could be years. I wouldn’t expect it to be that long, but we have to do our due diligence.”
When asked why they still hadn’t determined the cause of the biggest single fire in California history, Sadowski explained that its size is “part of the holdup.”
Investigators typically examine the ground to look for an origin area, ignition point, and burn patterns. But the site has to cool down before that can happen. The rapid growth and widespread evacuations in the Creek Fire made it so that it “took a while before it cooled down enough to take our resources over,” Sadowski said.
He was unable to pinpoint when the investigation began.
Magsig said he wished the Forest Service would dispel some rumors about how it started or publicly rule out some causes. But Sadowski explained that investigators don’t want to have to recant anything later.
“Especially due to the scale of this fire, we’re making sure all the i’s are dotted, and t’s are crossed before we say this is what happened,” he said.
Seth Brown, a public information officer with Cal Fire, said the conditions of the origin area play a significant role, too. If winds pushed the fire away from the burn point quickly, the evidence might be easier to examine than if the flames stayed awhile and destroyed everything in their midst.
Fire investigators also go door to door and interview homeowners, and search available cameras for video footage.
“So it does take quite a bit of time to sort through all that and really look at all the possibilities,” Brown said.
All six of the 2020 fires listed among the largest wildfires in California history remain under investigation. Those include the August Complex Fire, with 1,032,649 acres burned, and the SCU Lightning Complex Fire, with 396,624 acres burned. The Mendocino Complex Fire, which started in July 2018 and burned 459,123 acres, also remains under investigation.
Officials deny records requests
When The Bee requested records of 911 calls, arrest logs, and warrants around Big Creek during the wildfire, Frances Devins, Public Records Act Unit commander, said the public records request would take six to nine months to complete, as the Sheriff’s Office has 250 other pending records requests and Devins is the “only full time person handling these types of requests,” she said.
However, she clarified that the Sheriff’s Office has not made “any specific arrests related to the Creek Fire.”
The Fresno County Sheriff’s Office is not involved in the investigation, according to Sadowski.
When The Bee requested emails between Cal Fire commanders during the first week of the fire, Cal Fire rejected the public records request, citing the ongoing investigation.
Another records request with the U.S. Forest Service is pending.
“A lot of people are anxious, looking at the cost of the fire, how it has destroyed people’s lives… It’s impacted all of us,” Magsig said. “Finding answers to how it happened will help.”
This story was originally published December 31, 2020 at 9:24 AM.