Red tier? Purple tier? It’s all gray to us, as Fresno remains COVID colorblind
When’s the parade?
At long last, Fresno County can shed a dubious distinction: We’re no longer the most populous county in California that can’t get its COVID-19 act together, even a little bit.
That honor now passes to San Joaquin County. Shout-out to all those reading along in Stockton, Manteca and Collierville!
After months mired in the purple tier, Fresno County on Tuesday joined 35 of its brethren in the less-restrictive red tier on the state’s color-coded Blueprint for a Safer Economy.
Madera and Kings counties also moved into the red tier alongside two-week resident Tulare County. What about Merced County? Yikes. Don’t ask.
Although this feels like a momentous occasion, now’s not the time to celebrate. (Yup, that means no parade.) For one thing, Fresno County could easily backslide into purple if daily case totals continue their recent climb.
But the bigger issue — and I don’t mean to insult anyone’s eyesight — is one of general colorblindness. More a year in, we’ve long decided for ourselves how seriously to take the pandemic.
People who wear masks in public and avoid large gatherings in private will continue to do so, irrespective of tiers. They’ll keep ordering takeout food and refrain from going to the gym or the movies, at least until the pandemic is declared over.
Likewise, people who don’t bother with masks and disregard the advice of public health experts aren’t changing their ways, either. These folks have long resumed dining indoors and going to the gym, regardless if these activities were forbidden or severely restricted in the purple tier. It’s not like COVID-19 regulations are stringently enforced. Some cities, like Clovis, barely enforced them at all.
Fresno and vaccine rate
Why is Fresno County lagging behind compared to the state’s more populated and prosperous regions? Vaccinations, or the relative lack of them, are one reason.
Despite being California’s 10th most populated county, Fresno County ranks 12th in total vaccine doses administered, according to data compiled by the state Department of Public Health. (San Mateo and Ventura counties have each gotten more injections into arms than Fresno despite having fewer residents.)
As of Tuesday, Fresno County had administered 384,921 doses. Divide that by an estimated population of 1,013,400 and you get .37983 — roughly 38%.
I did the math for other counties and — wouldn’t you know it? — Fresno’s 38% figure is the second lowest to Riverside (35.2%) among the state’s 10 most populated counties.
While Fresno boasts a higher vaccination percentage than others in the region including Kern (30.5%), Tulare (33.8%), Madera (35.1%), and Merced (23.6%), we lag far behind the Bay Area and Southern California. In particular, the Bay Area, where four counties (San Francisco, San Mateo, Contra Costa and Alameda) eclipse 50%.
Which helps explain why eight more counties (including Los Angeles, Orange, Santa Clara and Alameda) joined San Mateo and San Francisco in the orange tier on the same day Fresno finally went red.
For Fresno County to follow suit, officials must do a better job of distributing the vaccine to the most pandemic-stricken areas.
Low ‘coverage’ in hot spot
Looking at the county’s COVID-19 case map and community figures, there are three primary hot spots: an area around Coalinga that has an estimated incidence of 6,172 cases per 10,000 people; the portion of downtown Fresno that includes the county jail (4,911 per 10K); and a half-mile rectangle of southeast Fresno south of Highway 180 (2,186 per 10K).
Except when you compare these hot spots to the available vaccination data, the numbers don’t line up.
For example, the Fresno County ZIP code with the highest percentage of “coverage” (i.e. people with at least one vaccine dose) is 93730 at 40.5%. That happens to be the portion of Fresno (the city) that includes Woodward Lakes and two posh country clubs and has seen among the lowest incidences of actual COVID-19 cases.
As mentioned above, a large swath around Coalinga is Fresno County’s biggest coronavirus hot spot. Census tract 79-02 is home to some 3,000 residents, many of them farm laborers and their families. (The state prison and hospital are in a separate tract.) Yet the portion of the county with the highest case rates ranks among the least vaccinated with just 17.5% “coverage.”
Hard to blame Sacramento Democrats for this discrepancy. But you can be certain Fresno County Supervisor Buddy Mendes, who represents the area, will find a way.
I don’t mean to completely poo-poo our shift into the red tier. If nothing else, it means Chukchansi Park can be 20% full for Fresno Grizzlies games — provided minor-league baseball returns in May as expected. That’s worthy of a fist pump.
But until our vaccination rates climb, and we do a better job distributing the vaccine to areas of the greatest need, Fresno County will remain tighter in the grips of the pandemic than more populated regions in California.
Purple tier? Red tier? Orange tier? It’s all gray to us.
