Recall paints San Joaquin Valley as a conservative red island in blue California liberalism

In the immediate aftermath of the election to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom, the San Joaquin Valley stands out as a red conservative island in the blue liberal ocean of California politics.

Using initial results, the California Secretary of State assembled a map showing which counties voted yes on the recall and which ones turned it down. From Kern County at the south to San Joaquin County to the north, six of the eight San Joaquin Valley counties went for the recall. The exceptions were Merced and San Joaquin counties, where voters opposed removing Newsom from office.

Instead of using political colors of conservative vs. liberal, the state’s map shows yes-on-the-recall counties as green, which is handy since the Valley is a farming region. No-on-the-recall counties are displayed in red.

The map is based on tallies made at the end of election night, and things could change in coming weeks as outstanding ballots get counted. For example, Fresno County stood at 50.2% yes to 49.8% no. Democrats hold the registration edge in the county, and there are more than 80,000 ballots yet to be tallied, so that result may flip.

In much the same way, Merced County’s no vote leads, but only by 38 votes. Outstanding ballots could switch it to yes.

Madera, Kings, Tulare and Kern counties are all strongly yes, and will remain pro-recall. San Joaquin is strongly anti-recall.

In fact, the state map of election results reflects a well-documented split in California. Instead of north-south, the political split is east-west. The more populous coastal communities angle Democrat, and opposed the recall. The rural inland counties trend conservative, and largely backed the campaign to remove Newsom.

The why in San Joaquin Valley

So why the dislike for Newsom in interior California? To research the possibilities, I talked to a Fresno County farm leader, a Fresno State professor of political science, a Republican activist from Clovis and an elected Republican state representative from Fresno. They agreed the farm is the place to start.

“My job depends on ag” stickers adorn pickup trucks up and down Highway 99. Of the top 10 farming counties in the state, eight are in the San Joaquin Valley, with Fresno leading the way.

The critical issue for farmers is water supply, and this year the news has been bad. Due to the drought, state officials said there would be no water coming from the big irrigation projects that farmers depend on. Then state regulators put river tributaries off limits. Instead, water is needed to help salmon and other fisheries. The perception of many growers, fair or not, is that Newsom cares little about them and more about fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

In the longstanding water wars between Valley farmers and environmentalists, distrust is widespread. Why, growers ask, should they trust a governor whose political career started in San Francisco, a center of environmentalism?

Then there are economic concerns. The Valley is home to some of the state’s poorest residents, and blue-collar jobs are common. Much of the Valley has lower average wages than the coast, and those reduced paychecks have been eroded by steady increases in the cost of rent, utilities and gas. So, Newsom was the target of Valley voters dissatisfied with their circumstances and their sense that the California dream does not exist for them.

A healthy slice of Valley Republicans also welcome libertarian views of government, such as those offered by Larry Elder, the Black talk-radio host who became the GOP frontrunner. Personal freedom is a key value, and the emergency steps that Newsom took to deal with the COVID pandemic — like business and school closures and calls for sheltering at home and wearing masks — were seen by these Republicans as dictatorial and anti-freedom. They welcomed Elder’s pledge to get rid of mask and vaccine mandates as his first act if elected.

The Lincoln Project, a moderate GOP group opposed to Trump’s brand of conservatism, published a tweet with two maps of California. The first shows the recall results by county; the second displays where COVID is most a problem. Where the recall passed in the Valley, COVID remains a major public health issue.

News of Newsom’s expensive dinner at an exclusive Napa Valley restaurant known as the French Laundry, coming last fall when he urged Californians to remain socially distant to deal with COVID, offended many Valley people, and reinforced their view of him as elitist.

Additionally, the ongoing high-speed rail project, visible to motorists on Highway 99 for years now, has been a favorite target of conservatives as an multibillion-dollar waste pushed by Democrats like Newsom.

Rise of NPP voters

One interesting fact: the final report of party registration, taken Aug. 30 in all the counties, showed the San Joaquin Valley to be purple.

In four of the counties, Democrats have the advantage: Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus. In four counties, the GOP leads: Kern, Kings, Madera and Tulare.

For all eight counties in the region, the no-party-preference option is picked by about 20% of voters.

Until the final tallies are reached for each county, it is hard to be precise in any explanation. But the no-party segment in the Valley, just as elsewhere in the state, likely had an outsized role in what happened in the recall.