Storms bring showers, ‘erratic winds’ to Central Valley. How long will it rain?
Weather across the Central Valley has taken a dramatic turn in recent days, shifting from near triple-digit heat to thunderstorms.
After a recent bout of hot weather, an “unsettled weather” pattern has moved into the region, bringing “dangerous lightning, small hail, brief heavy rainfall (and) gusty erratic winds” to the Central Valley, including Fresno and Merced.
“A low-pressure system moving across California is causing the stormy weather,” the National Weather Service told The Sacramento Bee.
How long will stormy conditions last?
Here’s what Central Valley residents can expect in the days ahead:
How long will it rain in the Central Valley?
According to the National Weather Service, rain chances are expected to taper off Friday, May 29, with warmer and drier weather gradually returning to the Valley through the weekend and into next week.
“The cutoff low will be situated over Central California until Friday morning,” the National Weather Service said.
As a result, there’s a 10% to $15 chance of thunderstorms across the Central Valley on Thursday, while Sierra Nevada foothills and peaks have a 15% to 30% chance of thunderstorms into the weekend.
“For the mountains, there will be lingering shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend,” the National Weather Service said.
The Sierra Nevada can also expect snowfall above 7,000 feet, with amounts ranging from an inch to more than 4 inches in the highest elevations.
“The hot and dry weather returns after this system passes,” the weather agency said.
Could El Niño affect summer weather in California?
There is about an 80% chance that an El Niño weather pattern could develop this summer.
Dan Collins, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, previously told The Bee that El Niño usually has limited effects on California weather during the summer months.
“Significant impacts of an El Niño are more likely in autumn and winter, when El Niño years are more likely to experience increased precipitation and cooler temperatures in the south, while less-than-average precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures are more likely in the north,” Collins said.
Meteorologists also said monsoon moisture from the desert could bring additional thunderstorms later this summer.
“During the summer, we can still have systems moving through or a push of monsoonal moisture,” the National Weather Service said.
Are more California storms possible this summer?
While widespread summer storms are less common in California, the National Weather Service said, they are “not all that uncommon.”
The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal precipitation outlook currently shows “equal chances” of above-normal, near-normal or below-normal precipitation levels for June, July and August.
“We typically don’t receive much precipitation across the state during those months but can see periods of mountain showers and thunderstorms if enough monsoon moisture pushes north,” Courtney Carpenter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said.
Carpenter said meteorologists will continue monitoring for monsoon moisture moving into the Sierra Nevada.
“These thunderstorms can bring heavy rainfall and potential flooding issues with them, but sometimes lack moisture and bring dry lightning, which can cause potential wildfire starts,” Carpenter said.
What’s next for Central Valley weather?
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal temperatures for early June, along with equal chances for wetter or drier conditions.
“Temperatures to begin to increase on Friday and into the weekend as ridging takes place,” the National Weather Service said.
What’s in the weather forecast for Fresno?
The National Weather Service’s current seven-day weather forecast for Fresno shows a slight chance of rain and cooler temperatures before heat returns to the region next week.
There was a 30% chance of showers on Thursday, May 28, with winds around 5 mph. Temperatures were expected to reach a high near 66 degrees and an overnight low around 53 degrees.
By Friday, skies are expected to gradually clear, with sunshine returning and temperatures warming slightly. Friday’s high is forecast to near 77 degrees, with a low around 57.
The National Weather Service said minor heat risk is expected this weekend, with conditions ramping up to a moderate heat risk heading into next week.
Temperatures will heat up on Saturday, with a high near 84 and a low around 60.
Sunday will see a high near 89 and a low of about 63.
By next week, Fresno can expect high temperatures climbing into the mid-90s.
How long will rain showers last in Merced?
The latest weather forecast for Merced looks similar, with a slight chance of rain Thursday followed by a warming trend through the weekend.
There was a 70% chance of showers on Thursday, with winds of 5 to 10 mph, the National Weather Service said.
Temperatures were expected to top out near 70 degrees, while the low could dip to about 52.
On Friday, Merced-area residents can expect “mostly clear” skies, the weather service said. The high will near 77 and the low will be around 53.
Minor heat risk is expected this weekend, with moderate heat possible early next week, according to the National Weather Service.
Temperatures are forecast to climb near 84 degrees on Saturday and 89 on Sunday, with highs potentially reaching the mid-90s by Monday, June 1.
