No one claims victory in Fresno mayor or council race, with 80,000 ballots left to count
An estimated 80,000 Fresno County ballots remained uncounted Wednesday afternoon — and that’s just the ones we know about — leaving races up in the air.
The Fresno County Registrar of Voters Office on Wednesday said 78,000 vote-by-mail ballots were yet to be counted as are another 2,000 provisional ballots.
That estimate does not include any ballots postmarked before Election Day that make it to the elections office by Friday. While the number is significant, about 100,000 ballots were left to be counted the day after the 2016 presidential primary.
No candidate had yet announced victory on Wednesday in the Fresno mayor’s race or City Council District 4 election as many ballots are yet to be counted.
The next update to the numbers is expected about 3 p.m. Friday, according to the Clerk’s Office.
Later voters tend to favor Democratic candidates in much of the state, according to Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. Mail-in ballots and other early votes tend to come from suburban, white, conservative homeowners who already know they’ll vote Republican.
“They’ve gotten into the pattern of voting early,” he said.
It’s the young renters who decided to vote at the last minute who show up to the polls that are more likely to support a Democrat, Mitchell said.
The late voter factor played a part in delayed Democratic surges to victory when Josh Harder beat Jeff Denham for a House seat in the 10th District in 2018 and when T.J. Cox won election over David Valadao for the US congressional district 21 the same year.
But, when it comes to a municipal election, the late vote is less of a factor, Mitchell said. The names for candidates for mayor or city council appear alone on the ballot, without a political party affiliation.
“Voters can’t easily determine someone’s ideology from just the name,” he said.
It’s remains to be seen if those tardy voters will sway the Fresno results for the more liberal mayoral candidate Andrew Janz as he trails conservative candidate Jerry Dyer or shore up City Council District 4 candidate Tyler Maxwell’s lead over opponent Nathan Alonzo.
Assuming the estimated 80,000 ballots holds true, the county would see a 41.7% registered voter turnout, slightly higher than the 40.7% seen in 2016’s presidential primary.
Counting votes in California is always a slow process because of the size of the electorate, according to Secretary of State Alex Padilla.
“In California, it always takes a little longer to get final official results because we have the largest primary in the country — more registered voters than the total population of most states — and stringent post-election policies to ensure every ballot is counted,” Padilla said in a statement.
Fresno County is in its first year of the Voters Choice Act, which mandates every registered voter is sent a ballot in the mail. Those could be marked and sent back, or voters have the freedom of choosing any voting center to cast a ballot in person.
Across Fresno County, some voting centers had computer connection issues, but the problems were resolved before noon Tuesday, according to county Registrar Brandi Orth. Another 14 counties in the state also saw issues with voting.
Some officials reported a smooth process for voters. Tulare County officials said Tuesday there had been a glitch with the ballot-marking devices for conditional ballots.
Tulare County officials said they expected to have a clear result on turnout by next week. Emily Olivera, speaking on behalf of the Tulare County registrar, said though there were some issues with electronic ballots, voters were still able to use paper ballots.
By 11 p.m. Tuesday, Madera County officials reported a nearly 37% voter turnout, with the number expected to rise as votes were counted.
Like Fresno, Madera used the California Voter’s Choice Act, which did away with the old precinct system. Madera used the system first in 2018.
Madera County Registrar Rebecca Martinez said issues arising at the polling centers were expected, as they are every year. But she said nothing kept voters from voting, and there were no issues that kept participants in line longer than they should have, she said.
In California if voters are in line by 8 p.m., they can remain in line and still cast their vote even after polling centers have closed.
Counties are required to certify their respective elections by April 3, and the state is set to certify by April 10, according to the Secretary of State.
This story was originally published March 4, 2020 at 2:18 PM.
