Voter registration is rising in Fresno, Valley. But how many will vote in primary election?
With just over a month left before the March 3 primary election, more people are registered to vote in the central San Joaquin Valley than at any time over the past 20 years.
And there is still a little more than two weeks left for would-be voters to sign up.
County registration figures show total registration at more than 875,000 across Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced and Tulare counties. How many will actually cast ballots in the primary, however, remains a question mark. That’s despite significant issues being put before voters – not only in terms of selecting candidates who will face off in November, but also a slew of school bonds and other measures.
Turnout for spring primary elections, whether in a presidential election year like this one, or in off-year elections, almost always is significantly lower than general elections in November, where top-of-the-ballot races like president or governor tend to drive voter interest.
In 2018, a midterm election that featured heated contests for Congress as well as for governor, turnout in Valley counties for the June primary ranged from about 31% in Fresno County to 44% in Madera County. Those figures lurched upward by between 23 and 26 percentage points in the November general election.
The difference was even greater in the 2016 presidential election year. Turnout for the June primary ranged from about 41% in Fresno and Kings counties to almost 50% in Madera County. But for the November general election, the figures climbed by as much as 31 percentage points, from 66.7% voters in Fresno County to more than 76% of voters in Madera County.
Fresno County elections officials hope they will see an increase in turnout this year by changing its system from one in which voters went to one of hundreds of precinct polling places across the county, to a system adopted two years ago in Madera County. Voters will receive their official ballots by mail and can either return them by mail starting in February or drop them off at one of 53 “voting centers” in the county between Feb. 29 and Election Day on March 3.
The latest figures available from county elections offices and the California Secretary of State show that of the estimated 1.2 million people in the Valley who are eligible to register to vote, about 73% are on the rolls. That includes U.S. citizens and California residents who will be 18 on or before election day, are not in state or federal prison or on parole for a felony conviction, and have not been deemed legally incompetent by a court.
Registration by party
Across the five-county region, Democrats have a modest advantage over Republicans of about 14,000 voters, primarily because of registration in Fresno County. Outside Fresno County, the rest of the Valley tilts slightly Republican.
But in Fresno County and throughout the Valley, almost one out of four registered voters is neither Republican nor Democrat – nor any other political party, for that matter. About 24% of all registered voters in the region are registered as “No Party Preference.” NPP voters have been the fastest-growing segment of the registration pool over the past few election cycles.
In Fresno County alone, the number of NPP voters climbed from fewer than 70,000 just seven years ago to about 112,000 this year.
