Nunes-Janz forecast just tilted a bit more in one candidate’s favor

With a week until the election, a new report shifts the 22nd District as less Republican — but still names Rep. Devin Nunes as the “heavy favorite” in the upcoming congressional race.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes elections across the U.S., downgraded the Valley district from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, giving more of a chance to Fresno Democrat Andrew Janz. The “likely” rating means the congressional race “has the potential to become engaged,” but is still not considered competitive.

“This Central Valley race has attracted more dollars than any other in the country, yet is still one of the least competitive,” the report said in new ratings released Tuesday.

“Nunes’s controversial handling of the House Intelligence Committee’s Russia probe has helped Democratic prosecutor Andrew Janz raise $8.3 million and helped Nunes raise $11.8 million. As a result, voters in the cheap Fresno market are drowning in negative ads.”

While Nunes beat Janz by nearly 26 percentage points in the June primary, the report says Democrats argue that Latino voters “are awakening in the closing weeks.”

The local race is among six ratings to shift in the country as the election nears, mostly toward Democrats.

Other California House races labeled as “likely” Republican are David Valadao (R-Hanford); Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) and Doug LaMalfa (R-Chico.)

Mackenzie Mays: 559-441-6412, @MackenzieMays