Local Election

Janz poll has the Democrat six points behind Devin Nunes

Fresno prosecutor Andrew Janz released a poll Monday showing him just six points behind Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Tulare, in the race for California’s 22nd Congressional District.

The poll, paid for by Janz’s campaign and conducted by Strategies 360, asked 402 likely 2018 general election voters: “If the election were held today and the candidates were criminal prosecutor Andrew Janz, a Democrat, and U.S. Representative and Farmer Devin Nunes, a Republican, for whom would you vote?”

Half of the voters chose Nunes, while 44 percent said they would vote for Janz. The poll was conducted via land line and mobile phone calls to voters within the district from Sept. 10-13.

The poll attempted to contact voters along similar registration lines to the actual demographics of the district. In the September survey, 34 percent of those surveyed were Democrats, half were Republican and 16 percent were registered as no party preference or a third party. The margin of error for this survey was 4.9 percent.

According to the most recent voter registration statistics, about 42 percent of the 22nd is Republican, while Democrats account for about 32 percent of voters.

The poll also asked 500 of the district’s likely voters the same question in July. In that survey, Janz was 12 points behind Nunes, who earned 53 percent of the would-be votes. These voters were also selected to mirror the actual demographics of the district, and the margin of error was 4.4 percent.

The Janz campaign said the numbers show progress after a busy summer that included four town hall meetings and more than 100 backyard meet-and-greets.

Nunes’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment on the poll.

Heather Greven, Janz’s campaign manager, also renewed the campaign’s open challenge for a debate: “Central Valley voters deserve to hear from both candidates about this important election.”

The poll also asked if the July and September respondents would vote Democrat or Republican on a generic ballot: “If the election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?”

In both survey groups, 39 percent of the voters said they would choose the Democrat. In July, 50 percent chose the Republican, and 49 percent chose the Republican in September.

Strategies 360 said the generic ballot question was important, as it established that Janz is outperforming his party designation – something any challenger will have to do in order to flip the 22nd District.

Rory Appleton: 559-441-6015, @RoryDoesPhonics
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