Is COVID-19 keeping California students from going to college? Here are the numbers

As the University of California smashes freshman application records for the upcoming school year, a troubling trend has emerged at state and community colleges — fewer first-time students are applying for the fall semester.

According to the California Student Aid Commission, fewer high school seniors in the state are filling out financial aid applications, whether that’s the Free Application for Federal Student Aid or the California Dream Act Application, which are good indicators of whether a student will attend college, according to Patrick Perry, the commission’s division chief of policy, research & data.

One of the most significant drop-offs is among undocumented, U-Visa, and temporary protected status students. By mid-February last year, almost 9,000 students had submitted a California Dream Act Application. This year, it has dropped by 32%, according to the data. Undocumented students are not eligible to receive federal student aid but are eligible for state aid through the Dream Act.

The pandemic also is affecting low-income students in the state, Perry said. First-time college students with a household income of $40,000 or less dropped by 22,000 compared to this time last year.

“They just have way too many things going on in life” that are keeping potential students from applying, he said.

“From some of the survey work we did earlier in the year asking students what’s going on with them, a lot of them are just saying, ‘Hey, my family situation is completely falling apart, only one of us has a job, moving away to go to college is not in the cards right now.’

“There’s a lot of hesitation to try and enter higher ed for a certain population, and it’s the lower-income populations,” Perry said. “So these entering freshmen pools who would normally be entering some of the lesser selective CSUs and colleges, they’re just not showing up, which is very disturbing.”

While CSU applications are down, UC applications spike

But it’s not all bad news for the incoming class of college freshmen.

It’s been a record year for the nine-campus University of California, with a 16% increase in applications for fall 2021.

Overall, the UC received 249,000 applications for fall 2021, including 203,000 from potential first-year students and 46,155 from transfer applicants.

UC Merced, in the Central Valley, received a record-breaking 30,105 applicants, which includes 25,458 freshmen. The campus is still accepting late application appeals.

Meanwhile, the 23-campus California State University system across the board is down by about 5% for applicants, according to spokesperson Mike Uhlenkamp.

He cautioned that the priority window has changed in the past few years due, at least in part, to the pandemic and California wildfires, so it’s not an exact match of dates. For example, for fall 2020 applicants, the application deadline was Dec. 1. For fall 2021, it was Dec. 15. Some schools are still accepting applications.

Fresno State received over 14,864 freshman applications for fall 2021, compared to 15,253 last year.

Although Fresno State was able to welcome its largest incoming class in fall 2020, applications actually fell about 13% compared to the two years prior and still remain lower than before the pandemic, according to Fresno State spokesperson Lisa Boyles Bell.

“Fresno State is an impacted campus, meaning we receive more qualified applicants than we can accommodate,” Boyles Bell said. “For fall 2020, while applications were down, our enrollment projections indicated we would have the capacity to serve more students.”

Boyles Bell said more students graduating was one of the reasons there was more space.

“We are cautiously optimistic about enrollment for fall 2021,” she said. “We’re pleased that students are boldly looking to the future and starting the journey to a college degree, which, for many, will transform their lives and the lives of their families.”

Financial aid applications from the California Student Aid Commission are mirroring the boost in freshman UC applications and a decline in CSU and community college applications.

California community college enrollment hit hardest

The most significant declines in college enrollment for first-time students have been at community colleges throughout the country. First-time student enrollment declined 13.1%, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

At State Center Community College District, there were over 40,000 students enrolled in both fall 2019 and spring 2020, according to data released by the district.

In fall 2020, enrollment dropped to 37,314 across the district’s four colleges, and for spring 2021, enrollment is at 34,631.

Financial aid applications to California Community Colleges dropped significantly year over year, according to data. In mid-February last year, just before the pandemic hit, over 191,000 students had submitted aid applications, a 4% increase from the year before.

As of Feb. 15, 2021, that number stood at 158,391, down 17% from the prior year.

The pandemic has hit the community college population hard, and there are a myriad of reasons why students may not be attending, said district spokesperson Lucy Ruiz.

“Some of the reasons that we have heard are that students can take one or two classes, but because of their obligations at home, can’t take a full load,” she said.

“Some have said they have to assist their children with school. They have to share their home technology with family members, et cetera. As you know, broadband access is also a key factor.”

More diversity coming to UC campuses

Experts have speculated that the rise in applicants at the UC could be attributed to the elimination of SAT and ACT scores as admission requirements.

“It is difficult to identify why applications are up for (the) UC system because each application is an individual decision involving a student, family, friends, high school counselors, and others,” said James A. Chiavelli II, assistant vice chancellor of external relations at UC Merced.

“However, the removal of standardized tests (ACT and SAT) from the application process has certainly made the UC more accessible than ever before — for students who cannot afford prep courses, or whose grades are a far better reflection of their academic potential than a test could ever have portrayed.”

When UC regents voted to drop standardized testing from admission requirements last year, they hoped it would increase diversity to groups that have been traditionally left out of a UC education, such as low-income, first-generation and Black and Latinx students.

For fall 2021, UC Merced boasted the largest population of freshman Latinx applicants in the system, at 52%. The UC as a whole saw Black applicants increase by 21.8% and Latinx by 12.2%.

Whether a diverse applicant pool translates to diverse enrollment won’t be known for months after schools send out acceptance notices and students decide which schools to attend.

FAFSA applications down 10% at Fresno, Clovis schools

Since the pandemic shut down campuses across the country last year, education experts have feared high school seniors would be less likely to move on to college.

Both the CSU and UC announced this winter their intent to hold primarily in-person classes in the fall, understanding that many students would like to return.

A study conducted by nonprofit YouthTruth in fall 2020 found that one in four high school seniors’ postsecondary plans have changed since the start of the pandemic. Low-income and nonwhite students were more likely to say the pandemic affected their plans, the report found.

At Fresno and Clovis Unified, FAFSA applications were down by 10% in January compared to the same period last year, according to a report from market and research agency Top Data. That’s in line with many other California cities, the report found. Bakersfield saw a 14% decline, Los Angeles 19%, Sacramento 11% and Riverside 25%. San Francisco had a 7% uptick.

But the deadline for FAFSA isn’t until June 30, which is giving schools more time to get to students, according to Fresno Unified spokesperson Vanessa Ramirez.

She said Fresno Unified has a 40.59% completion rate among seniors, putting the district at No. 1 out of the top five largest school districts in the state: Los Angeles, Long Beach, San Diego and Elk Grove.

“However, this includes all seniors such as non-grads, SPED, Military, opt-out, etc.,” she said. “If we don’t include these from the total seniors, the FAFSA completion rate would be higher.”

She anticipates an 80% completion rate by June 30.

Ramirez said one of the reasons that fewer students have submitted their FAFSA so far “is that the CSU admission application was extended, which pushed back the FAFSA work at sites. Another reason, due to COVID — it’s more challenging in working with students.”

But outreach is intensifying this year, she said.

“More calls, more messages, and more video calls to reach out to all students. This year we added electronic letters to students who have no FAFSA application urging them to apply to prevent jeopardizing their financial aid. Each school is different, but this year we held about 45 districtwide FAFSA evening sessions in the fall, and each site is making efforts to increase FAFSA applications.”

Families who need more information on how to fill out the form can visit ccr.fresnounified.org.

Transfers, grad student applications climbing

Although freshman applications at many colleges have taken a hit, transfer and graduate applications have jumped. Financial aid applications for graduate students spiked for 2020, at over 120,000, compared to about 91,000 last year.

At Fresno State, transfer applications for fall 2021 are up 9%, or roughly 600 more applications, Boyles Bell said. UC Merced garnered a record 4,647 transfer applications.

The Education Lab is a local journalism initiative that highlights education issues critical to the advancement of the San Joaquin Valley. It is funded by donors. Read more from The Bee’s Education Lab on our website.

This story was originally published February 22, 2021 at 3:00 PM.