COVID update: Fresno County hits elusive red tier metric. What does it mean and will it last?
The Fresno County Department of Public Health and California Department of Public Health reported 143 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Sunday, bringing the total to 98,112.
But the 7-day average rate of new cases per 100,000 population was down to 9.1, at least for one day checking in within the standard to move to the less-restrictive red tier in the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy.
Whether that will hold or perhaps improve further is the question.
Fresno County already is meeting two other key measures used by the state in its weekly tier assignments – it has a 7-day test positivity rate that is below 8%; and a health equity positivity rate that is below 8%. Those numbers last week were 5.1 and 6.4.
But the number of new cases per 100,000 and the adjusted case rate for tier adjustment has been an issue, despite a steady decline through the end of February.
It was 41.4 on Feb. 2 and continued to improve over the next three weeks to 30.2, 22.8 and 16.6, but the progress slowed there. It was 14.0 on March 2, 12.6 on March 9 and 11.9 on March 16, when the state most recently moved Sacramento County and nine others across the state to red from the purple, the most restrictive of the four tiers.
The number to hit is 10 cases per 100,000 residents.
Among central San Joaquin Valley counties, Kings, Madera and Merced also remain in the purple tier; only 11 of the 58 counties in the state are still in the most restrictive tier of the state’s blueprint framework, with 42 in the red tier, four in orange and one in yellow.
Tulare County moved to the red tier last week and Mariposa County moved to orange on March 9. The purple tier represents a widespread risk of COVID-19 infection, the red a substantial risk, the orange a moderate risk and the yellow a minimal risk.
California will next assess its COVID-19 tiers data on Tuesday, but the soonest Fresno County could move into the red tier would be the March 30 update. A county must be at the 10 new cases per 100,000 as well as the other two metrics for consecutive weeks to move to a less restrictive tier.
The Fresno County Department of Public Health on Sunday also reported five additional coronavirus-related deaths, that total now is 1,542.
In Kings County, there were six new cases reported by public health officials for a total of 22,511, including 7,205 in state-operated correctional facilities. There were no new deaths in the county, and the 7-day average of new cases per 100,000 residents is 12.0, according to the California Department of Public Health.
Madera County had not updated its COVID-19 case data since Friday when there were 15,788 confirmed cases and 226 deaths.
Merced and Tulare counties also do not update data on weekends. Merced County on Friday reported 30,142 cases to date including 428 deaths and Tulare County had 48,770 total cases and 793 deaths.
This story was originally published March 21, 2021 at 3:16 PM.