Coronavirus update: Cases will continue to decline, according to a new forecast by the CDC

The number of new confirmed coronavirus cases continues to fall in California as well as the San Joaquin Valley and they will continue to over the next four weeks, according to an ensemble forecast released on Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The number of weekly cases in Fresno County, which hit a peak in mid- to late-January of more than 9,600 during a winter surge, according to CDC data, is projected to be around 753 four weeks out.

It is expected to fall from around 1,453 cases through Monday to 1,207 to 990 to 920 and to 753.

The CDC forecast of new reported coronavirus cases over the next four weeks includes forecasts from 31 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction. Several of the modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future, while others assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected four-week time period.

The other five counties in the central San Joaquin Valley are projected to see a smaller number of new weekly coronavirus cases, as well. In one month’s time, Kings County is forecast to have about 120 new weekly cases, Madera 102, Mariposa 2, Merced 242 and Tulare 366.

While the numbers fall, the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines continues to be an issue for California.

State officials are reworking a plan to help those eligible to be vaccinated in underserved communities after access codes were leaked to people who were not eligible for the shots, according to the Associated Press.

Those codes were shared over email, leading some to sign up for shots who were not eligible either because of their age or their occupation. In one instance, outsiders showed up at a predominantly Latino public housing community for vaccinations being provided by a mobile unit sent from the Los Angeles site.

In San Luis Obispo County, officials are preparing a new lottery-based registration system. And, in Fresno County, teachers will be eligible to start receiving doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine on Monday,

Fresno County, Central Valley updates

Fresno County public health officials reported 157 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in a late Wednesday update, bringing the total to 94,741. There also were an additional 11 deaths, the total moving to 1,412.

The one-day test positivity rate was 8.2%, with 1,921 tests.

The number of coronavirus patients in county hospitals was down by three to 255, and the number in intensive care units was up by two to 64.

Kings County did not update its COVID-19 data due to computer maintenance, but on Tuesday it reported a total of 21,916 cases and 218 deaths. Elsewhere in the central San Joaquin Valley:

Madera County

• 23 new cases, 15,302 total
• 8 new deaths, 209 total

Mariposa County

• 1 new case; 394 total
• 0 new deaths; 7 total

Merced County

• 125 new cases; 28,874 total
• 1 new death; 394 total

Tulare County

• 50 new cases; 47,730 total
• 8 new deaths; 739 total

The number of new coronavirus cases in the central San Joaquin Valley counties is at its lowest point since before Thanksgiving. The six-county region has had an average of fewer than 416 new confirmed cases each day over the past week. Just a month ago, the 7-day average was more than three times higher, at more than 1,300 per day.

California surpasses 50,000 deaths

The California Department of Public Health reported 189 new confirmed cases in Kern County with a total of 91,390 and a 14-day test positivity rate of 10.2%, which is the highest among the top 20 counties by population.

Kern County is the only one with a 14-day rate of 10.0% or higher.

Stanislaus County had 105 new confirmed cases and has now surpassed 50,000, with 50,075, according to a Wednesday afternoon update from county public health officials.

Statewide, the CDPH reported 5,303 new cases and a total of 3,455,361 with 314 new deaths and 49,877 total.

The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, which updates after the CDPH had California surpassing 50,000 deaths early Wednesday evening with 50,890.

In a 3 a.m. Thursday update, that was up to 50,972.

California had 25,000 deaths in the first 10 months of the pandemic, and it took less than two months for that number to double.