Coronavirus update: Improved ICU projections in Fresno, state; streamlining vaccinations

The California Department of Public Health ended regional stay at home orders on Monday for the San Joaquin Valley, Bay Area and Southern California regions, allowing counties to return to the color-coded tiers of the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy.

While Fresno County is back in the Purple or most restrictive tier, restaurants will again be able to offer outdoor dining, hairstylists and nail salons will be able to reopen and retail stores will be able to operate at a slightly higher capacity; 25%, up from 20% under stay-home orders.

The key metric in triggering the move back to the tier system was intensive care unit capacity in hospitals — a region that fell below 15% was put under stay-home orders.

The Fresno County Department of Public Health reported on Monday that there are 575 COVID-19 patients hospitalized with 95 in ICUs. There were seven ICU beds available, which was actually two fewer than the previous day.

But the four-week ICU capacity projections for the San Joaquin Valley, Bay Area and Southern California all were above 15%. The Sacramento region had a stay at home order lifted on Jan. 12, and Northern California never entered the order.

What are those projections? The CDPH’s four-week projection ending Feb. 21 for unadjusted case rate per 100,000 and four-week ICU projections across the state:

Bay Area: 38.2 and 25.0%

Sacramento: 34.1 and 27.3%

Northern California: 30.7 and 18.9%

San Joaquin Valley: 56.6 and 22.3%

Southern California: 73.0 and 33.3%

California: 60.1 and 30.3%

Under those projections, the Southern California region will go from no ICU capacity to 33.3% capacity in the next four weeks, the highest in the state.

“California is slowly starting to emerge from the most dangerous surge of this pandemic yet, which is the light at the end of the tunnel we’ve been hoping for,” said California Health and Human Services secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly, in a statement from the CDPH.

“Seven weeks ago, our hospitals and front-line medical workers were stretched to their limits, but Californians heard the urgent message to stay home when possible and our surge after the December holidays did not overwhelm the healthcare system to the degree we had feared.”

Kern County cases surpass 90,000

The Kern County Department of Public Health Services in a Monday update reported 90,564 coronavirus cases, well ahead of the most recent update by the CDPH of 83,125.

The county with the update would move past Sacramento County and Fresno County and have the seventh most cases of any county in the state and the most in the San Joaquin Valley. Deaths in Kern County are 591, an increase of one from the previous day, according to the county public health officials.

Here are the Monday updates from county officials:

Fresno County

• 534 new cases; 85,808 total
• 24 new deaths; 1,067 total

San Joaquin

• 644 new cases; 59,665 total
• 27 new deaths; 835 total

Stanislaus

• 258 new cases; 44,442 total
• 8 new deaths; 796 total

Tulare

• 815 new cases; 43,574 total
• 11 new deaths; 542 total

Merced

• 77 new cases; 25,575 total
• 7 new deaths; 331 total

Kings

• 435 new cases; 20,138 total
• 1 new death; 161 total

Madera

• 360 new cases; 13,943 total
• 0 new deaths; 151 total

Mariposa

• 4 new cases; 355 total
• 1 new death; 5 total

The CDPH on Monday reported 27,007 new COVID-19 cases with a total of 3,136,158 positive cases and 37,118 deaths.

There were 25,297,072 cases in the nation with 421,129 deaths, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

Worldwide, the CSSE listed 99,755,496 cases and 2,141,228 deaths.

A more streamlined vaccination plan

California has improved its rate of COVID-19 vaccinations with 49.7% of 4.9 million doses now administered around the state, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker.

But while counties continue to deal with a shortage of vaccine, there may at least be a more streamlined process to let residents know when it is their turn to sign up to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.

Gov. Gavin Newsom said at a Monday briefing that there will be a statewide standard, transitioning to an age-based eligibility plan while ensuring vaccines go to disproportionately impacted communities.

The state Department of Public Health will also allow for the reallocation of vaccines from providers that have not used at least 65% of their supply for a week and have not submitted a plan for administering the remaining vaccine to prioritized populations within four days of notice.