As new coronavirus cases arise, what could it mean for Fresno County restaurants, churches?
Almost 400 new confirmed COVID-19 infections were reported in Fresno County since Friday, keeping the county on an upward trend that may forecast a future increase in hospitalizations and deaths – and jeopardize progress in reopening more sectors of commerce and community life as soon as Tuesday.
The 162 new infections reported Sunday in the county by the California Department of Public Health was the highest one-day jolt in cases since early September. It was sandwiched between 119 cases on Saturday and 106 more on Monday.
Over the past seven days, an average of more than 115 new coronavirus cases were reported each day in Fresno County.
Since the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in the central San Joaquin Valley were identified in early March, almost 31,000 Fresno County residents have tested positive for the virus, whether or not they ever showed symptoms of the respiratory disease. Of those patients, 436 have died.
Why case numbers matter
The number of new daily cases is a figure that is closely watched by the state as one of two key factors in allowing California counties to gradually reopen business sectors from broad restrictions put in place over the spring and summer to slow the spread of the virus.
Fresno County currently resides in Tier 2 of the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy – a program of four color-coded tiers for reopening based on risk for transmitting COVID-19 in the community. The county graduated from purple Tier 1, the most restrictive level, to red Tier 2 on Sept. 29.
Under Tier 1, restaurants were prohibited from offering indoor dining and limited to outdoor seating or take-out service; churches could not hold services inside; and health clubs and gyms were limited to outdoor activities only. In Tier 2, restaurants can resume indoor dining at up to 25% capacity, churches can hold indoor services with the lesser of up to 100 people or 25% capacity, and gyms can reopen indoors at up to 10% capacity.
To remain in Tier 2, a county must maintain an average rate of seven or fewer new cases per day for every 100,000 residents. If a county misses that mark for two consecutive weeks, the state can put the county back into purple Tier 1, forcing a retreat from those indoor operating expansions for businesses.
Besides new cases per 100,000 residents, the other key factor in moving through the tier levels – from purple Tier 1 for “widespread” transmission risk, to red Tier 2 for “substantial risk, to orange Tier 3 for “moderate” risk to yellow Tier 4 for “minimal” risk – is the percentage of people being tested whose results come back positive for the virus.
Fresno County’s test-positivity rate last week was 5.2% – solidly below the threshold of 8% needed to stay in the red tier. But counties must meet both criteria, not just one, to either stay in their tier or progress to the next one.
Possible return to purple
In the state’s most recent update last week, Fresno County’s adjusted case rate was reported at 7.3 new daily per 100,000 residents for the week ending Oct. 10. Since that date, The Bee’s raw calculations of the county’s case data show that the number of infections has trended steadily upward.
The state’s next update will be issued Tuesday, and will be based on data for the seven-day period ending Oct. 17. If Fresno County’s case rate determined by the state remains above 7.0 per 100,000, it could trigger a reassignment of the county back into purple Tier 1.
Dr. Rais Vohra, Fresno County’s interim health officer, isn’t predicting a backslide into purple, but acknowledged the prospect in a video briefing with reporters Friday.
“That’s what we need to brace ourselves for. It’ s going to be announced on Tuesday,” Vohra said. “We just need to make plans to say, “OK, if we do have to go back into purple, here’s how we’re going to have to operate.”
Fresno County is among several California counties that have been walking a numerical tightrope of sorts, “skirting that boundary between red and purple,” Vohra said. Last week, Riverside County and Shasta County both fell from the red tier back into the purple tier.
Neighboring Merced County, which entered the red tier on Oct. 6, is also confronting the possibility of a return to purple if its case counts remain above 7.0 per 100,000 for a second straight week.
“Every Tuesday morning, all over the state, there are restaurant owners, people who operate gyms, people who work there, who really depend on us being in red or beyond,” Vohra said. “And if we get dragged back into purple, then they are going to have major disruptions in their lives.”
But, he added, Fresno County has already managed to climb out of purple and into red once before. “We can’t give up and we won’t give up,” Vohra said. “And if we happen to go back into purple, we’ll just have to do a deep dive into what are the hot spots, what are the ways we can prevent this infection from spreading further.”
Monday updates around the Valley
Monday’s case updates from counties across the central San Joaquin Valley include:
Fresno County: 106 new cases reported Monday, 387 since Friday, 30,858 to date; no additional deaths over the weekend, 436 to date. Fresno County only provides updates on deaths on Tuesdays and Fridays.
Kings County: 18 new cases reported Monday, 43 since Friday, 8,239 to date; no additional deaths, 83 to date. The case count includes 3,645 infections to date among inmates at state prisons in Avenal and Corcoran.
Madera County: 39 new cases since Friday, 5,020 to date; no additional deaths, 74 to date.
Mariposa County: No new cases since Friday, 78 to date; no additional deaths, two to date.
Merced County: 66 new cases since Friday, 9,531 to date; no additional deaths, 155 to date.
Tulare County: 95 new cases since Friday, 17,590 to date; two additional deaths, 288 to date.
This story was originally published October 26, 2020 at 1:59 PM.
