Fresno County stays red in COVID-19 reopening. But case counts again threaten progress
Fresno County businesses, restaurants, churches and health clubs can stay open with limited indoor services for at least one more week after the California Department of Public Health kept the county in Tier 2 of the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy on Tuesday.
The color-coded framework of four tiers is intended to allow for a gradual reopening of the economy based on a county’s progress in limiting the spread of COVID-19. Fresno County currently resides in the blueprint’s Tier 2, color-coded red to represent “substantial” risk of transmission. It was promoted from purple Tier 1, the most restrictive tier denoting “widespread” risk, on Sept. 29.
But the county’s rate of new cases ticked back to a level that would put the county back into the purple tier if not corrected by next week.
Under red Tier 2, restaurants in the county are allowed to offer indoor dining at up to 25% capacity, churches can hold indoor worship services at the lesser of 25% capacity or 100 people, and health and fitness clubs may open at up to 10% capacity. Most retailers can be open at up to 50% capacity.
Schools are also allowed to reopen for in-person instruction once a county has been in the red tier for at least two weeks.
Each business and community sector must also follow safety protocols for their staff and their customers, including requiring face masks, incorporating social distancing, and other protocols.
The state updates tier assignments for each of its 58 counties on Tuesdays. The assignments are based on calculations of new daily cases per 100,000 residents in a county, as well as the percentage of people tested whose results come back positive for infection by the novel coronavirus.
In Tuesday’s update by the state, Fresno County had an average adjusted rate of 7.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents for the seven-day period from Oct. 4-10. That’s just above the maximum of seven new daily cases needed to remain in the red tier. During the same seven-day period, Fresno County’s testing positivity rate was 5.2%, compared to the maximum of 8% to continue to be in the red tier.
If the new-case rate remains above the 7.0 threshold for a second consecutive week when the next update comes on Oct. 27, Fresno County could be reassigned back into Tier 1, forcing reinstatement of stricter limitations on business operations including outdoor-only or take-out service for restaurants, outdoor church services, and other restrictions. Those sectors were forced to operate under those limitations for months over the summer before the county progressed into Tier 2 last month.
Fresno County’s case counts have crept upward in recent days, which could affect the state’s future tier assignments. The state health department reported 140 new cases of COVID-19 on Monday, more than any single-day report since Sept. 13, and drove the county to more than 300 new cases that surfaced over the weekend.
The new cases reported Monday also pushed Fresno County to a cumulative total of more than 30,000 people who have been infected with the virus – whether or not they experienced any symptoms – since the first confirmed cases were identified in early March.
California health leader’s perspective
Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of California’s Department of Health and Human Services, said Tuesday that the state is mindful of counties including Fresno that are teetering on the edge between one tier and another and the uncertainty that comes with it.
“It’s not surprising that you have counties on the cusp, that move a little forward or deeper into the red tier and then have an increase into the purple tier,” Ghaly said, adding that such wobbles are more likely in urban counties that can be more prone to an increase in transmission.
“Each week we sort of walk in and wonder which side of the threshold we’re going to be on,” he added. He said his hope is that as outbreaks are identified, counties will be able to move swiftly to bring their case numbers back down, with the state’s help if necessary.
Ghaly also addressed changes to the state’s tier guidance that now allow personal care services such as tattoo and piercing parlors, hair-removal studios and massage businesses to reopen indoors with modified operations under purple Tier 1. The state had previously allowed barber shops and hair salons, and then nail parlors, to reopen even if their county is in Tier 1.
Fans at pro sports events
Professional sports teams across California will be able to resume having fans in outdoor stadiums once their county achieves orange Tier 3, but with limitations including capping spectators at 20% of the stadium’s capacity, allowing only advance ticket sales, and limiting fans traveling from far-away communities or out of state by restricting ticket sales to people within 125 miles of the team’s home stadium. Refreshments and food would not be sold through concession stands on a stadium concourse but ordered from and delivered to fans at their seats in the stands. Tailgating in stadium parking lots would also be prohibited.
The fan capacity would increase to 25% under yellow Tier 4.
But as collegiate football teams prepare to resume play, including the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Mountain West Conference opening this weekend and larger California schools in the Pac-12 Conference, fans will still be prohibited, Ghaly said.
“At this time we’re starting with the professional sports venues,” Ghaly said Tuesday. He added that what the state observes and learns from professional teams will help the state understand how to safely reopen college stadiums to fans in the future.
For now, however, “we have no plans to release guidance for collegiate sporting events,” Ghaly said.
How to move forward
If Fresno County is able to remain in Tier 2, its next goal will be to reach Tier 3, color-coded orange for “moderate” risk of transmission. In the orange tier, capacity limits for indoor operations would expand to 50% for restaurants, churches, movie theaters, museums and zoos, and to 25% for health and fitness clubs. Wineries which are limited to outdoor operations under Tiers 1 and 2, would be allowed to open at 25% capacity in orange Tier 3.
Bars, breweries and distilleries that don’t serve meals have remained closed under Tiers 1 and 2, but in Tier 3 would be able to reopen outdoors. Cardrooms and satellite betting centers could reopen indoors at 25% capacity.
To get there, however, the county has some work ahead of it.
The new-case rate would need to be driven to below four per 100,000 and the testing positivity rate has to be below 5%. The county must meet both of those marks for two weeks before being promoted to the new tier.
A third requirement put in place by the state earlier this month is a “health equity” metric that must be met before a county can move to a less restrictive tier. The health equity score is based a county’s ability to meet the health needs of its most socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhood. Fresno County’s health equity score, reported Tuesday at 7.9%, would have to fall to 5.2% or lower to move to orange Tier 3.
Fresno County’s score indicates that 7.9% of COVID-19 tests for residents in the county’s poorest 25% of census tracts are coming back positive for the virus, compared to only 5.2% of tests for the county overall.
Merced and Kings counties, which are also among the state’s red-tier counties, face the same goals to move into orange. Like Fresno County, however, Merced County’s adjusted case rate per 100,000 residents crept up to 7.4 in this week’s update, above the 7.0 threshold for the red tier.
Mariposa County is in yellow Tier 4, the least restrictive of the four stages, while Madera and Tulare counties remain in purple Tier 1.
Two California counties, Riverside and Shasta, suffered setbacks Tuesday and were reassigned from red Tier 2 back into purple Tier 1, said Dr. Erica Pan, the state’s acting public health officer. Three other counties advanced to less-restrictive tiers on Tuesday: Butte and Napa from red Tier 2 to orange Tier 3, and San Francisco from orange Tier 3 into yellow Tier 4.
This story was originally published October 20, 2020 at 12:30 PM.
