May brings modest job gains to Fresno region as California eases COVID-19 restrictions
Fresno County and the central San Joaquin Valley saw modest gains in employment last month as businesses slowly began to reopen from coronavirus-related shutdown orders.
But those gains made only a small dent in the number of jobs that evaporated between February, before the first COVID-19 cases appeared in the Valley, and April, when the pandemic’s effects were in full bloom, according to estimates issued Friday by the California Employment Development Department.
More than 74,000 jobs disappeared between March and April in the five-county region. “Those broad losses are being somewhat offset by some gains this month, probably a direct result of reopening the economy,” said Steven Gutierrez, a labor market analyst with the EDD in Fresno. “With things opening up in California and in Fresno County, we’re seeing a little bit more activity in some of the sectors. The year so far looks terrible except for agriculture.”
More than 142,000 workers across Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced and Tulare counties were out of work in May. That’s an improvement from April, when unemployment in the region topped 155,000. In February, by contrast, the number of people out of work was estimated at fewer than 85,000.
In Fresno County, the unemployment rate in May was 15.7%, down by more than one full percentage point from April’s rate of 16.9%. “Since recording one of the lowest unemployment rates last fall, we’ve seen them spike to some of the highest of the year,” Gutierrez said. “We were at 5.6% in September, and now eight months later we’re at 15.7%.”
The situation could look worse, Gutierrez said, without sizable gains reported in the agriculture industry over the past few months. Between February and April, farm jobs grew by 6,600 in Fresno County; the sector added another 7,100 jobs between April and May. Both gains represent typical seasonal increases in farm jobs during the spring, including harvest activities for a range of crops.
“Good old agriculture still plays a big role in our economy,” Gutierrez said. “And it has a trickle-down effect on other related industries.”
Some non-farm industry sectors began to add back some jobs, but except for construction those gains were nowhere near the number that existed before the coronavirus crisis. Construction trades recovered 1,700 positions in May, outpacing the losses of 1,600 jobs from February to April.
The leisure/hospitality industry, which includes restaurants, bars, hotels and recreation venues, has been one of the hardest-hit sectors in the pandemic. Businesses in those fields saw an increase of 900 positions in Fresno County – but that’s less than 6% of the 15,100 jobs that disappeared between February and April
Manufacturing also saw a gain of 500 jobs in May, making up a little more than one-quarter of the 1,900 jobs that went away over the prior two months.
“I think probably some of the gains are not new jobs, but people being brought back from furloughs or layoffs,” Gutierrez said.
Other sectors, however, continued to shed jobs in Fresno County, including retailers, wholesalers, transportation/warehousing, and private-sector education and health services.
Government agencies are also feeling the effects as business closures choked off precious revenue from sales and property taxes. Collectively, cities, school districts and other local agencies in Fresno County lost about 1,000 positions from February to April, and lost an additional 1,500 last month. City councils, the Fresno County Board of Supervisors, and school boards are likely to contend with budget uncertainty well into the next fiscal year that begins July 1 as they wait to see how much help, if any, they may receive from the state or federal governments.
Similar patterns were reported for neighboring Valley counties:
Kings County: 9,000 unemployed, rate of 16.0% compared to 17.0% in April.
Madera County: 9,500 unemployed, rate of 15.2% compared to 16.7% in April.
Merced County: 18,800 unemployed, rate of 16.5% compared to 18.7% in April.
Tulare County: 35,300 unemployed, rate of 18.4% compared to 19.3% in April.
The bottom line, Gutierrez said, is that it’s likely to take months before the region recovers all of the job losses caused by COVID-19. “If the virus numbers start to fade, then maybe people can resume their lives and work and spending,” he said. “But right now the virus’ pass seems unpredictable.”
Statewide, California’s unemployment right dipped only slightly, from 16.4% in April to 16.3% last month, as payroll jobs increased by only 141,000 to reach just over 15.1 million in May.
In an unusual turn, seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates last month in Fresno County were lower than several other metropolitan areas that typically are better. “If you look at some of these other counties, you see Los Angeles at 20.6%, Monterey at 16.8% and Riverside at 15.8, and we came in at 15.7%,” Gutierrez said. “I think a lot of it has to do with agriculture,” he said. “Those places rely more on travel and tourism, and they’re feeling the effects of that.”
Unemployment claims
The local data on employment came a day after the U.S. Department of Labor reported that more than 240,000 people in California filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits last week.
In four weeks after Gov. Gavin Newsom issued sweeping orders in mid-March for residents to stay at home for “non-essential” businesses to close to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, more than 2.8 million people submitted initial claims for unemployment, according to the federal agency. That included a one-week surge of more than one million claims in the last week of March. That’s gradually tapered off, and since early May has ranged between 200,000 and 260,000 new claims each week.
That’s still four to five times higher than the weeks before the COVID-19 orders, when initial claims ranged between 35,000 and 45,000 each week.
Nationwide, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell again for the eleventh consecutive week, said Robert Dye, chief economist for Comerica Bank, numbering just over 1.5 million last week. That was a decrease of 58,000 from the first week of June.
“That is the good news,” Dye said. “The less than good news is that the rate of improvement in initial UI claims is clearly weakening.”
