Kevin McCarthy says Democrats in Biden-won seats are in danger. These Californians are on the list
Democrats seeking re-election to the United States House of Representatives should be worried if things go the way Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy predicts.
“If you’re a Democrat and President Biden won your seat by 16 points, you’re in a competitive race next year,” he said in a news conference on Wednesday of representatives in districts that voted for President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
McCarthy’s statements follow a series of Republican victories in elections across the country on Tuesday. Glenn Youngkin flipped the Virginia governor seat and John Lujan took over a Democrat’s old seat in Texas’ House after the area overwhelmingly voted for Biden in 2020, while the GOP scored wins in New Jersey and Minnesota.
Several of California’s Democratic members of Congress sit in districts Where Biden won by 16 points or less. In total, McCarthy’s assessment would threaten six House Democrats:
- Rep. John Garamendi, D-Walnut Grove, Biden +12.3
- Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove, Biden +13.8
- Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock, Biden +2.9
- Rep. Raul Ruiz, D-Coachella, Biden +13.6
- Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, Biden +11.3
- Rep. Mike Levin, D-Vista, Biden +12.7
Experts have already said that Harder, Porter and Levin are in tossup races.
Harder’s campaign blasted an email seeking donations after Youngkin’s win in Virginia.
“We can either sit in our pity and hope things magically get better, or we can take action” of Democrats’ odds in upcoming elections, he wrote.
Reps. Jerry McNerney, D-Stockton, and Jim Costa, D-Fresno, were in districts that went to Biden by 18 percentage points, drawing them close to the line as well.
But redistricting, the process by which legislative boundaries are redrawn based on population counts from the Census, will alter those margins. California lost a seat in the House because of sluggish population growth over the past decade, particularly near Los Angeles and in the Northern California, dropping its delegation to 52 representatives.
Maps have to make up for this difference. Still, if lines are redrawn the way they were in preliminary visualizations released last week, a couple of House Democrats could lose their seats.
McCarthy blames Pelosi
McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, predicted at least 70 of his Democratic colleagues will be in competitive elections for their seats in 2022, and that many of them will lose, likely flipping control of the House from Democrats to Republicans.
“There’s many that are going to lose their races based upon walking off a cliff from Nancy Pelosi pushing them,” he added.
McCarthy said Democrats’ proposals for the sweeping tax and spending bill and other social measures are out of tune with what the general public wants, thus putting their electability in danger.
If Republicans gain control of the House, McCarthy will likely take over as Speaker from Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco. Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Tulare, could be selected as chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, which oversees policies related to taxes, insurance, health care and more.
Right now, Republicans hold 213 of the 435 House seats following a special election in Ohio on Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by Republican Steve Stivers last May. Stivers, who represented the district for a decade, left to become the president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.
Mike Carey, a Republican coal lobbyist who was endorsed by Trump, defeated Ohio State Rep. Allison Russo, who was endorsed by Biden.
“It only takes 218 to be a majority,” McCarthy said.
Redistricting imperils House Democrats
Initial visualizations for California’s new legislative boundaries cut out a Democratic seat near Los Angeles. Bera lost left-leaning Elk Grove and gained right-leaning areas around Roseville. Harder lost a chunk of Democrat voters in Tracy.
Nunes, McCarthy and Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, would be also be shuffled a bit. The maps give more of McCarthy and Valadao’s districts to Nunes.
Experts previously told The Sacramento Bee that California’s initial maps should have been a good sign for the GOP despite a tougher race for Nunes.
They noted that candidates do not have to live in the districts that they are running to represent and that the maps are far from final. Maps should be finished by the end of December after a series of drafts are released for public review.
This story was originally published November 4, 2021 at 2:57 PM with the headline "Kevin McCarthy says Democrats in Biden-won seats are in danger. These Californians are on the list."
