Fresno State football: Big loss to Ole Miss puts Bulldogs in position to expedite decision on QB

Fresno State absorbed a thorough beating at Ole Miss, losing 73-21 while getting out-everything’d just about everywhere on the stat sheet. Turnovers – the Bulldogs did lead there. Penalties, too. Not that either do much for the top line. But there was a positive in that the Bulldogs emerged from that loss with at least the opportunity to expedite a decision on who will play quarterback once they get to Mountain West Conference play, which is, really, the focal point for this young team.

So, with another tester against No. 21 Utah between now and then, who do they invest in this season?

Coach Tim DeRuyter and offensive coordinator Dave Schramm might have answered that question in the second half against the Rebels. Freshman Chason Virgil, who in the opener against Abilene Christian played two series in the first half and two in the second behind starter Zack Greenlee, entered the game at Ole Miss in the second quarter and finished the first half. He then started the third quarter and stayed there through a good portion of the fourth before the Bulldogs got junior transfer Ford Childress some reps, his first since 2013 when he was at West Virginia.

Afterward, DeRuyter said the game was not too big for Virgil.

“I think he played with a lot of poise and he gave us a spark,” the Bulldogs coach said.

On the plane ride home and on Sunday night, that was a topic of discussion. There is a decision to be made. Greenlee took care of the football, but didn’t move the offense. Virgil moved the offense, but turned the ball over.

“We’re going to let them compete this week and we’ll see how it goes,” DeRuyter said.

And the plan still is to have a starter set when conference play begins.

“Ideally, that’s where we’ll be,” DeRuyter said. “That’s the goal anyway. The plan all along was to get to the league and have a guy established. We have a pretty good feel for it, but we’ll see how it plays out this week.”

Virgil made some mistakes at Ole Miss, including an interception in the red zone where he eyeballed linebacker C.J. Johnson sitting in the middle of the field and he still tried to hit tight end Chad Olsen moving up the right hash mark. Johnson, either unaware, unfazed or maybe just unimpressed by an offensive formation that had right tackle Justin Northern lined up as the second of three receivers to the left, jumped the route and took it 70 yards the other way.

But the freshman exited with a passing efficiency rating of 146.44 for the game, which, believe it or not, is the fourth best mark for any Fresno State quarterback with 10 or more passing attempts since Derek Carr moved on to the NFL, and points out plenty about the Bulldogs’ quarterback play of late.

The numbers:

▪ 174.19, Brian Burrell in 38-24 victory over San Jose State in 2014

▪ 157.97, Burrell in 35-24 victory at New Mexico in 2014

▪ 146.90, Burrell in 59-27 loss at Utah in 2014

▪ 146.44, Virgil in 73-21 loss at Ole Miss in 2015

▪ 143.02, Burrell in 56-16 victory over Southern Utah in 2014

▪ 142.37, Brandon Connette in 59-27 loss at Utah in 2014

▪ 135.85, Burrell in 40-20 victory at Nevada in 2014

▪ 129.41, Burrell in 30-27 loss at UNLV in 2014

▪ 122.65, Burrell in 28-14 loss at Boise State in 2014

▪ 114.40, Connette in 56-16 victory over Southern Utah in 2014

Fresno State last season ranked 104th of 128 in the nation in passing efficiency rating at 113.71, and through its first two games in 2015 it is ranked 104th at 112.87.

The formula in calculating the rating includes pass attempts, pass completions, passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions, and a 146.44 is a solid number over a season. Last year, it would have fit between Cal quarterback Jared Goff, who was ranked 21st in the nation at 147.59, and Alabama-Birmingham quarterback Cody Clements, who was 22nd at 146.28.

Virgil is going to make mistakes. He is a true freshman. But he could give the Bulldogs the best chance to get anywhere near that number and win football games during conference play when in with a chance at a third consecutive berth in the Mountain West championship game and third title in four years.

Greenlee was tabbed as the starting quarterback before the season, but his hold on the position was tenuous at best, subject to his play leading up to the conference opener on Sept. 26 at San Jose State.

He had a passing efficiency rating of 109.39 in the opening victory over Abilene Christian, and in completing 3 of 4 passes for just 13 yards had a rating of 102.30 in the loss to Ole Miss. In five career games, he has an efficiency rating of 101.67 and that number is inflated by games against two FCS opponents in Southern Utah last season and Abilene Christian this season.

Take those games out of the equation and that rating is 70.60. Five of the six touchdown drives Greenlee has on his resume, in fact, have come against FCS opponents.

Virgil was a solid No. 2, and no matter how well Greenlee was doing he was going to get reps in the opener against Abilene Christian, at Ole Miss and against Utah.

The game plan for both against the Rebels was very conservative – Fresno State attempted only 24 passes in 76 plays, the fewest passes and the fewest passes by percentage that the Bulldogs have run in a game under DeRuyter. The previous low was 25 passing attempts last season in a 37-27 loss at Boise State, and 32.9% pass plays (26 in 79) last season in a victory over San Jose State.

But Virgil handled it better than Greenlee, who has not yet been able to take his practices into games.

Greenlee has attempted 18 passes per game to this point, hitting 17 of 36 (47.2 percent) for 169 yards at 4.7 yards per pass play with three touchdowns and one interception.

Virgil has attempted 15.5 passes per game, hitting 20 of 31 (64.5 percent) for 201 yards at 6.5 yards per pass play with three touchdowns and three interceptions. His rating through two games is 131.57.

Despite the unsightly loss at Ole Miss, opportunity still is in front of the Bulldogs in a conference that includes a number of teams working through transitions at the quarterback position.

Fresno State, with its struggles, still is fifth in the conference in scoring offense and passing offense, second and third in the West Division. The Bulldogs are sixth in total offense, second in the West.

The team that figures it out fastest could have an edge, and the Bulldogs need to start fast. Their first two Mountain West games are at San Jose State and at San Diego State, teams expected to be in the top half of the division at the end of the year.

Time to invest.

7 for 7 is like 7 on 7 – Ole Miss obviously had no issues with its starting quarterback. Chad Kelly was in for the first four series, then three more in the second and third quarters, and the Rebels scored a touchdown on all seven.

He made quick work of it, too. Only one of the seven touchdown drives took more than three minutes – the first, when Ole Miss went 85 yards in 11 plays in 3:04.

When Kelly was in the game, the Rebels averaged 11.0 yards per play (462 yards on 42 plays) and that is not the most chilling thing about the 607 yards Ole Miss rolled up.

Over the past 29 games, the Bulldogs have allowed 500 or more yards nine times with a high of 736 in that dispiriting loss at San Jose State in 2013 that knocked the Bulldogs out of the BCS conversation. In the final 29 games under coach Pat Hill, Fresno State allowed 500 or more yards seven times with a high of 581 in a loss at Nevada in 2011.

The significant difference in there is the level of competition. Five of those 500-yard games over the past two-plus seasons have come against Power Five Conference opponents.

▪ 736 yards – in 62-52 loss at San Jose State, 2013

▪ 701 – in 52-13 loss at USC, 2014

▪ 694 – in 45-17 loss to Wyoming, 2014

▪ 607 – in 73-21 loss at Ole Miss, 2015

▪ 566 – in 55-19 loss to Nebraska, 2014

▪ 561 – in 41-40 victory over Boise State, 2013

▪ 543 – in 52-51 OT victory over Rutgers, 2013

▪ 526 – in 59-27 loss at Utah, 2014

▪ 507 – in 35-28 OT victory at San Diego State, 2013

Third-and-shorts – The pick six by free safety Shannon Edwards was the first of his career and the 10th by a Bulldog under DeRuyter and defensive coordinator Nick Toth. Fresno State has forced five turnovers in its first two games. Last season, it had five takeaways through its first five games.

▪ Marteze Waller ran the ball 15 times on first down and was held to two yards or fewer 10 times.

▪ Josiah Blandin caught a 9-yard touchdown pass from Virgil just before halftime, his second this season. Blandin joins Bear Pascoe (2007), Josh Harper (2011) and Davante Adams (2013) as the only Bulldogs going back through 2002 to catch a touchdown pass in the first two games of a season. For Blandin and Harper, it was the first two games of their Fresno State careers. Harper in his first two games as a redshirt freshman in 2011 caught three passes for 22 yards and a touchdown in a loss to Cal, then two passes for 33 yards and a touchdown in a loss at Nebraska.

▪ Virgil, following the loss to Ole Miss: “This loss just adds fuel to the fire and motivates us. We play another Top 25 team and we need to work harder. We have Utah at home and losing in Bulldog Stadium is not what we do at Fresno State.”

▪ Fresno State ranked 11th of 12 in the Mountain West Conference last season in red zone scoring percentage at 74.6 percent (41 scores in 55 trips). Through two games, the Bulldogs have scored on just four of seven red zone opportunities (57.1 percent) and have turned it over twice.

▪ Ole Miss scored 76 points in its opening victory over Tennessee-Martin and in racking up 73 on the Bulldogs became the first team from the SEC to put up 70 or more in back-to-back games since Florida in 1994. The Gators beat New Mexico State 70-21 and then Kentucky 73-7.

This story was originally published September 13, 2015 at 5:30 PM with the headline "Fresno State football: Big loss to Ole Miss puts Bulldogs in position to expedite decision on QB."