Fresno State has a path to Mountain West title game. Here are the scenarios
Fresno State football has a path to the Mountain West Conference championship game. Several of them, actually. There are even scenarios where the Bulldogs would host the Dec. 5 matchup between the top two teams in the conference.
But to get there they need to win out, beating Utah State on Saturday and San Jose State next week on the road, and they also need to get some help along the way.
With two weeks remaining in the regular-season, there are seven teams in contention to play in the conference championship game led by San Diego State, which is at the top of the conference with a 5-1 record. Fresno State is 4-2, as is Boise State, Hawaii, New Mexico and UNLV. Utah State at 3-3 still has a chance to get to the championship game if the final two weeks of the regular-season turn chaotic.
The Bulldogs have beaten Hawaii and Boise State, but do not play New Mexico or UNLV so to avoid some unfavorable tiebreaker scenarios they need the Lobos and Rebels to pick up a third loss.
They also need a boost in one key metric – scoring. Fresno State, at this point, doesn’t fit the Mountain West championship game profile. All but three participants since the game was first played in 2013 have averaged 30 or more points per game in conference play, and the Bulldogs are at 19.7 after putting up a late touchdown in a 24-3 victory over Wyoming.
Along with more points on the scoreboard, this is what Fresno State fans should be rooting for this weekend …
Friday
Hawaii (4-2) wins at UNLV (4-2). The Rebels are a 2 1/2-point road favorite, but a Hawaii victory is not out of the question. The Rainbow Warriors have averaged 39.0 points in the past five games, and UNLV has struggled to stop competent offenses from scoring all season. It has allowed an average of 32.8 points against conference opponents. UNLV could still drop a third conference game next week at Nevada, but the Wolf Pack is just 2-8 and 1-5 in Mountain West play and has lost three in a row in the series.
Saturday
Fresno State (4-2) beats Utah State (3-3). The Bulldogs’ defense is on a nice roll, allowing a total of 10 points over its past two games. It faces a different challenge in Utah State and quarterback Bryson Barnes, who presents a run game challenge the Bulldogs’ haven’t seen since matching up against Jalon Daniels in a season-opening loss at Kansas.
Barnes has hit 63.1% of his passes in throwing for 18 touchdowns with only three interceptions, and also has rushed for 531 yards and eight touchdowns. He has more rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns than the Bulldogs’ Bryson Donelson.
“We’re going to have to have a really good plan going into it, try to change up some things and have some solutions on our call sheet so that way we can keep them off base and on their heels a little bit during the course of the game,” coach Matt Entz said. “But at this point of the year it still comes down to being great at the simple things. We have to get off blocks, and we have to tackle.”
Boise State (4-2) loses to Colorado State (1-5). The Broncos losing to Colorado State is a long shot – the Rams have scored an average of just 11.5 points through a four-game losing streak. But since losing quarterback Maddux Madsen to a lower leg injury when sacked by Fresno State defensive end Korey Foreman, Boise State has run 20 offensive series not ended by the half or game and scored just two touchdowns. They have punted 11 times, turned over the ball three times, lost possession on a turnover on downs twice and missed two field goals.
New Mexico (4-2) loses at Air Force (2-4). The Lobos are one of the best stories in college football this season, with first-year coach Jason Eck leading New Mexico to a bowl for the first time since 2016. In the seasons in between, they averaged just three wins. This could be a tricky spot for them. New Mexico is only 2-3 on the road, and Air Force, despite a 3-7 record, has played much better defensively over the past month. The Falcons have allowed just 20.8 points per game over that stretch, which included matchups against Connecticut and San Jose State. UConn is averaging 35.9 points per game, and the Spartans were on a six-game run during which they averaged 32.2 points per game before a 26-16 loss to Air Force in San Jose.
San Diego State (5-1) beats San Jose State (2-4). How good are the Aztecs? That’s debatable. Three of their five conference wins have come against Wyoming (2-4), Colorado State (1-5) and Nevada (1-5). They also caught Boise State with its backup quarterback and Fresno State right after making a quarterback change, with Carson Conklin in his first career start. San Diego State also is averaging just 25.4 points per game. The Aztecs could win out, lose out or split its final two regular-season games, and a two-loss San Diego State could send the conference deep down a rabbit hole with its tie-breaking procedures.
Fresno State would host the Mountain West championship game if it were to win out, San Diego State were to lose out, New Mexico were to lose to Air Force and UNLV would lose one of its two remaining games.
But its simplest path is to win out with San Diego State also winning its final two games and UNLV losing on Friday to Hawaii to in-state rival Nevada.
The Bulldogs would also make it if it were to win its final two games with Boise State, Hawaii, New Mexico and UNLV all losing once to pick up a third loss.
This story was originally published November 20, 2025 at 11:40 AM.