Fresno State may be good, or just lucky. But it’s still a long way from ceiling

Fresno State coach Matt Entz inherited a team that had lost its starting quarterback, top three receivers, three offensive line starters and on the defensive side of the football, seven of its top 10 tacklers.

Yet, the Bulldogs are 3-1 following a 56-7 wipeout of overmatched Southern, a FCS (football championship subdivision) program, and have more non-conference wins than they did last year, in 2022 and 2019 and as many as in 2021. Questions remain, however, whether the Bulldogs have been more lucky than good, and an answer may not come until much later in the season.

Things they do know as they get set to open Mountain West Conference play on Saturday at Hawaii: They have a chance to build a resume that could use a boost and long way to go to reach their ceiling.

“There’s a lot of room for improvement,” Entz said. “I think we’ve made good improvements at the same time. I don’t want to belittle what we’ve done and what we’ve accomplished up to this point. I think our kids have done a good job of buying into a different way of doing things, a different philosophy.

“But they’re also seeing the benefits, that we can be 50-50 run-pass, even though we want to run the football. We threw for more yards than we had rushing (against Southern) and we made some explosive plays. I think guys are starting to see the benefit of it, the ball control. We can shorten games, play complimentary football.”

Fresno State did open with a loss at Kansas, which is 2-1, 1-1 against FBS (football bowl subdivision)-level opponents. The Bulldogs’ two FBS wins are against Georgia Southern and at Oregon State, which are a combined 1-5 at this point and have been outscored by 20.0 and 19.6 points per game.

In the Bulldogs’ most recent game against a FBS opponent, Oregon State quarterback Maalik Murphy had 371 passing yards and the Beavers also had a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver in Anthony Hankerson with 136 and Taz Reddicks with 158. Fresno State had not won a game when an opposing quarterback passed for 350 or more yards and also had a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver going back to 1995. The Bulldogs were 0-6.

Fresno State also ran just 46 plays in its victory in Corvallis. The Bulldogs were 0-8 when running fewer than 50 plays from scrimmage before winning at Oregon State.

Oregon State outgained the Bulldogs 528-318, 210 yards. Fresno State had lost 19 games in a row when outgained by 200 or more yards. Its last win came in 2007 when it beat Nevada 49-41 despite getting outgained 702-475. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick had 384 passing yards in that game and Nevada had two wideouts with 100 or more receiving yards, but it did not have a back crack the 100-yard mark rushing the ball.

Lucky, or good? The best answer is they are 3-1, improving, and could be 7-1 in November when they play at Boise State, the favorite to win the Mountain West. Fresno State is a betting favorite at Hawaii. It will be a favorite against Nevada and could be in games at Colorado State and against San Diego State.

Two things that could push them forward into conference play: On offense, quarterback E.J. Warner uaing his feet when popping the escape hatch to the pocket or sees an opening; on defense, greater consistency and winning first downs at a higher clip.

Warner has not rushed the football much or with much success in his career, but he has eight rushing attempts either by design or scrambling out of the pocket on pass plays and has gained 96 yards with one touchdown, according to Pro Football Focus. Included are runs of 11 and 16 yards on the game-winning drive inside of two minutes to play at Oregon State. Fresno State does not necessarily want to utilize him in the run game, but Warner through four games already has more scramble yards than he had in any of his first three seasons.

“He did a nice job of that in Corvallis,” offensive coordinator Josh Davis said. “Our first touchdown was him stepping up in the pocket, the defense had their backs to him and he was able to get a touchdown run. Then on the 2-minute drive to win the game most of our yardage was E.J. trying to distribute the football, struggling to do that, and finding yards with his legs.”

The defense has played well, outside the win at Oregon State. The Bulldogs are ranked third in the Mountain West in scoring defense, fourth in total defense. But they are allowing an average of 6.5 yards per first-down play against FBS opponents, and nine of the 14 explosive plays of 20 or more yards they have allowed have come on first down plays.

“The best is yet to come out of this group. We’ve shown where it can be, but it has to be consistent,” defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto said. “I think that’s everything. That’s cliche, but it really matters in the game of football. You have to out-execute. You have to out-align. You have to out-focus the opponent and put yourself in a position to finish the plays.

“But I think there’s still a lot more that I see with this group, that we could keep going. The players, they fight for each other, they play their tails off, and it’s just a matter of finding those one or two little things that can take it to the top.”