Fresno State at UNLV: What to watch, including a Super Senior season for Jordan Mims

Fresno State and UNLV are going in opposite directions. The Bulldogs have won four games in a row after a 1-4 start, scoring an average of 36 points in their victories. The Rebels have lost four in a row after a 4-1 start, allowing an average of 35 points in their losses.

But there still are some interesting matchups and things to watch — and the best combination of the two might be the Bulldogs’ offensive line and running back Jordan Mims up against a UNLV defense that, deceptively, is ranked 10th in the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense.

That appears to be just volume: The Rebels’ opponents have rushed the ball at them 42 times a game, which is a lot. There are only nine teams in the nation defending more, per game.

UNLV per rush is allowing only 3.9 yards, fourth in the conference. And all but one of the teams that Fresno State has played this season allowing less than four yards per rushing play has had success stopping Mims and the Bulldogs’ game. Here’s what that looks like:

UConn (3.9 ypp): 26 for 30, 1.2 ypp

Boise State (3.0): 35 for 99, 2.8

San Jose State (3.3): 36 for 98, 2.7

New Mexico (3.8): 50 for 285, 5.7

San Diego State (3.9): 26 for minus-3, -0.1

But that only makes what Mims is doing in his sixth season of college football more impressive, now three years removed from an ankle injury toward the end of the 2018 season that was career threatening. Mims had surgery, dealt with a post-procedure infection, went through months of rehab. It has been a long road back. But very quietly he is on pace to become the Bulldogs’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 2014 when Marteze Waller rushed for 1,368 yards.

In rushing for 800 yards in 162 plays, Mims has handled 70.7% of the workoad by Fresno State running backs, the second highest percentage in the conference behind San Jose State’s Kairee Robinson, who plays in a backfield with dual-threat quarterback Chevan Corderio. Robinson has rushed it 98 times; Corderio 92.

The Fresno State back ranks second in the Mountain West in rushing yards and third in yards per game with 88.9. He’s in the process of having a big, but underrated season in an offense that is now leading the Mountain West in scoring offense after it was sixth just three weeks ago.

The Bulldogs have had only two backs rush for more than 800 yards since Waller had his 1,000-yard season. Ronnie Rivers had 899 rushing yards in 2019 when Mims was out due to his injury and Waller followed up his 1,000-yard season with 920 the following year.

Bulldogs’ red zone offense trend

Fresno State scored four touchdowns on six red zone possessions in its victory over Hawaii, but the Bulldogs’ touchdown percentage inside an opponent’s 20 still is only 50%. That is the lowest it has been since 2016 when also at 50% and it’s only sixth in a scoring-challenged Mountain West where no team is averaging 30 points a game and six are averaging less than 21 per game.

Something is missing inside an opponent’s 20-yard line. Could it be the tight end?

In nine games and 42 red zone possessions, Fresno State tight ends have two targets and one reception. It was Raymond Pauwels Jr. in the first game of the season against FCS Cal Poly, and it was an 8-yard touchdown.

Sophomore Tre Watson did not play against Hawaii due to an injury and has been ruled out for the season, but he had been targeted in the red zone just once this season and did not catch a pass there.

The Bulldogs’ highest red zone touchdown percentage in the past 10 seasons was 73.7% in 2018 when they scored 42 touchdowns including 15 on pass plays. A tight end was on the receiving end of six of those 15 TD passes: Kyle Riddering had three, Jared Rice had two and David Tangipa had one.

UNLV defensive pass rush

UNLV is ranked third in the Mountain West with 23.0 sacks, 2.6 per game, and that pressure has played a part in the Rebels’ takeaway numbers. They have a Mountain West-high 13 interceptions.

But the Rebels staff has an interesting decision to make when it comes to bringing an extra pass rusher at the Bulldogs, even as they work through some injury-related issues on the offensive line.

Quarterback Jake Haener since returning from that lower leg injury has eviscerated opposing defenses when they have blitzed, completing 17 of 20 passes (85%) for 166 yards with three TDs, according to Pro Football Focus.

He was a perfect 4 of 4 last week in the 55-13 victory over Hawaii against a defense that was allowing just 19.0 points in its first four conference games. He’s hit 79.6% of his passes this season when blitzed, the highest completion percentage in the nation.

Game details

FRESNO STATE at NEVADA-LAS VEGAS

When: Friday, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

TV: CBS Sports Network (Carter Blackburn, Tom Herman)

• Find it fast: Channels 643 and 1643 on AT&T Uverse, 418, 732 on Comcast, 221 on DirecTV, 158 on Dish Network

Radio: Bulldog Sports Network (Paul Loeffler, Pat Hill, Cameron Worrell)

• Find it fast: 1400 AM in Visalia/Tulare; 1340 AM in Fresno; 1280 AM in Stockton; 970 AM in Bakersfield; 92.9 FM in Modesto; 96.7 FM in Fresno

The records: Bulldogs (5-4, 4-1 in the MW), UNLV (4-5, 2-3)

The series: Bulldogs lead 17-7

Last meeting: Bulldogs won 38-30 in 2021

The streak: Bulldogs have won four in a row.

The line: Bulldogs -9.5

This story was originally published November 10, 2022 at 11:25 AM.