Fresno State vs. San Diego State: What to watch, including Bulldogs’ run defense test

By Robert Kuwada

Updated October 29, 2022 8:12 PM

San Diego State is a run-heavy football team, which is no secret in its success. When at its best, that’s what it has done. In 2015 and ‘16, when winning back-to-back Mountain West titles, it ran the ball on more than 70% of its plays, among the highest percentages in the nation and not all that far off option teams.

The Aztecs are at 61.4% this season, second-highest in the conference behind the Air Force.

Fresno State’s.David Perales, #99, is on the sack of San Jose State quarterback Chevan Cordeiro in first half action Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022 in Fresno. ERIC PAUL ZAMORA ezamora@fresnobee.com

That established, Fresno State on Saturday will have its resurgent defense tested by San Diego State and a run game that is churning out 4.7 yards per play and 173.9 yards per game, second and third in the conference.

On the line for both is the inside track to a West Division title in the Mountain West and a spot in the conference championship game; the Bulldogs (four times) or Aztecs (three times) have played in the title game in seven of the eight seasons it has been held.

Fresno State wore down and out the last time it matched up against a strong rushing team, allowing 115 yards at 5.2 yards per play in the fourth quarter of a 40-20 loss at Boise State to open conference play.

The Broncos bullied the Bulldogs, pounding the football at them on 22 of the 23 plays they ran in the quarter. Since then, Fresno State has allowed a total of 119 rushing yards in victories over San Jose State and New Mexico.

That’s just 2.4 yards per rush in two victories. But the Spartans and Lobos do not run it nearly as well as San Diego State and are ninth and 10th in the Mountain West and 111th and 112th in the nation in rushing yards per play, New Mexico slightly ahead at 3.42 to San Jose State and its 3.40.

Saturday, Fresno State will have to contend with a deep group of running backs — the Aztecs’ depth chart lists the starter at the position as senior Chance Bell or redshirt freshman Cam Davis or senior Jordan Byrd or sophomore Jaylon Armstead as well as junior Kenan Christon.

Byrd is leading the group with 62 rushing plays, though Bell with 34 has missed two games.

PLAY-ACTION FAKE

As much as San Diego State rushes the football, it is not all that good with its play-action pass game, which obviously could be a function of just not being very good at its pass game.

Jalen Mayden, who is expected to make his third start since moving back to quarterback from safety, has hit only 40% of his pass attempts off play-action. Braxton Burmeister, who was the Aztecs starter at the beginning of the season, hit only 50% of his play-action passes before he was benched and eventually moved to wideout.

Fresno State cornerback Bralyn Lux upends Cal Poly quarterback Spencer Brasch in the Bulldogs’ 63-10 victory over the Mustangs, Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021 in Fresno. ERIC PAUL ZAMORA ezamora@fresnobee.com

The Bulldogs likely cannot afford to get hit by any shots over the top in a game where points could be hard to come by. With or without play-action, San Diego State does target its outside receivers far more than its tight ends or running backs, and Tyrell Shavers and Jesse Matthews have made some plays against Fresno State.

Shavers caught a touchdown pass against the Bulldogs last season, and Matthews caught eight passes for 119 yards back in 2019.

That puts the Fresno State cornerbacks into play, and that is an area the Bulldogs have improved significantly.

Cale Sanders has the second-highest coverage grade among starting or rotation corners in the Mountain West, according to Pro Football Focus. Bralyn Lux has the 10th-highest grade and nickel Morice Norris has the seventh-highest coverage grade in the conference.

Lux in particular has had a bounce-back season after struggling early last year and losing his starting spot nine games into the season.

“It’s confidence, experience,” he said. “I see the game differently than my first two years. I’m more confident in my game. I just know what they want to do in certain situations and that’s been helping me a lot. It’s just being locked in every week, having a 1-0 mindset. I’ve been going hard in practice and that translates to the game.”

Lux’s Pro Football Focus grades are 74.2 overall and 72.5 in coverage, and last season they were 64.1 and 65.8.

The junior cornerback also has been targeted 34 times, more than any of the Bulldogs defensive backs, and has allowed only 15 receptions. His reception percentage (44.1%) is the lowest on the team and third-lowest in the Mountain West among defensive backs with at least 100 snaps.

PLAY WRECKER

The Aztecs defense is not what it has been in past seasons, ranked just seventh in the Mountain West and perhaps more alarming seventh in conference games despite playing Boise State, Hawaii and Nevada, which are only sixth, eighth and 10th in the league in total offense.

San Diego State is, however, allowing only 21.4 points per game and it has a few problems for the Bulldogs to deal with including lineman Jonah Tavai.

Tavai is leading the nation in quarterback pressures with 38 (3.0 sacks, nine hits and 26 hurries), according to Pro Football Focus, which lists the 290-pound end as an interior lineman. That is more than double that of any inside player in the conference; Dom Peterson from Nevada is second with 18. Tavai also has the second-highest run defense grade among interior linemen in the league.

That is a test for the Bulldogs, who did not allow a sack and churned out a season-high 285 rushing yards last week in a road win at New Mexico against a similar 3-3-5 defense.

THE GAME