Fresno State Bulldogs at USC: Things to watch, including road map to slowing Trojans offense

USC quarterback Caleb Williams is off to a fast start, hitting 79.6% of his passes with six touchdowns while averaging 295.0 yards a game. He will be a challenge for every defensive coordinator and every defense on the Trojans’ schedule, and is likely to be included in any Heisman Trophy chatter through to the end of the season.

But, he also has made just nine career starts and it is worth noting that five of them have come against defenses that allowed more than 30 points per game against FBS competition and a sixth that allowed 28.5, including Texas Christian (37.8 ppg) and Kansas (44.7) last season when he was in his freshman season at Oklahoma.

That is not meant to minimize Williams’ success, but it does open questions about how much he might have seen from opposing defensive coordinators, and whether the Bulldogs’ Kevin Coyle can throw a few wrinkles at him on Saturday night that gum up a Trojans’ offense that is averaging 53.5 points per game.

Even if he does, Williams could play his way right through it.

But, also worth noting, Williams started games last season against three of the more consistent and competent defenses in the Big 12 in Baylor (19.2 ppg), Iowa State (21.4) and Oklahoma State (18.2).

In those three games, he hit only 37 of 75 passes (49.3%) and averaged 160.3 passing yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions.

Oklahoma lost to Baylor and Oklahoma State, both on the road, and beat Iowa State at home by a touchdown.

In his six other starts against those defenses allowing 28-plus points per game, he has hit 116 of 149 passes (77.9%) and averaged 284.5 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and one interception.

Oklahoma and USC are 6-0 in those games.

That’s a stark difference.

What did Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State have success with?

They got Williams on the ground a few times — Baylor had three sacks, Iowa State four and Oklahoma State six.

They also limited his scramble and run-game yardage, though Williams did break one big play in each of those games.

He had 10 rushing attempts (designed runs, scrambles out of the pocket and sacks) for 17 yards and one touchdown against Baylor with a 19-yard run. He had 12 rushes for 67 yards and one touchdown against Iowa State with a 74-yard run. And, he had 19 rushing plays for 36 yards against Oklahoma State with a 56-yard scramble play.

The Bulldogs allowed 35 points in last week’s last-play loss to Oregon State and have not excelled at getting to the quarterback — they have three sacks in two games, tied for sixth in the Mountain West Conference.

But consistent pressure could be enough to get the Trojans out of sync.

CAN’T MISS TACKLES

Fresno State did not tackle particularly well in its loss to Oregon State and had 15 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. That will be at a premium against USC, which has the best skill position players the Bulldogs will see all season and probably have seen for a few seasons with Williams, running backs Tony Dye, Austin Jones and freshman Raleek Brown and wideout Jordan Addison.

USC is tied for first in the Pac-12 with 12 chunk passing plays of 20 or more yards and tied for second with 15 plays from scrimmage of 20 or more yards. Addison, the high-profile transfer from Pitt, is averaging almost 10 yards after the catch on his 12 receptions, four of which have gone for touchdowns.

The 15 missed tackles are the most Fresno State has had in a game since it had 19 a near-loss to UNLV last season. If they have that many against the Trojans, this game might not be close.

SCORING TOUCHDOWNS IN THE RED ZONE

The Bulldogs struggled inside the Oregon State 20-yard line in that 35-32 last-second loss to the Beavers, settling for short field goals of 21 and 23 yards in the second quarter and a 37-yard kick in the fourth.

A soft zone into the compressed field caused quarterback Jake Haener and the Bulldogs’ some issues, and likely some changes in the way they will approach that part of the field.

Haener, 30 of 46 (65.2%) against the Beavers, was 3 of 9 in the red zone (33.3%) for 11 yards including a 4-yard touchdown to Erik Brooks that gave the Bulldogs a lead with 1:05 remaining.

“There’s some things that we game-planned,” offensive coordinator Kirby Moore said. “There’s a couple we missed that you kind of want back, then there’s some execution things and then there’s always some things that you self-evaluate and you’re like, ‘Hey, maybe we could have done this, we could have done that.

“But, yeah, we obviously have to be better there.”

Whether or not an answer, the Bulldogs through two games are rushing the ball much better inside an opponent’s 20-yard line than a year ago, averaging 4.1 yards per play, up from 1.9.

THE GAME

FRESNO STATE at USC

When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

TV: FOX (Noah Eagle, Mark Helfrich)

• Find it fast: Channels 26 on AT&T Uverse, 6, 706, 1026 on Comcast, 26 on DirecTV, 5263 on Dish Network

Radio: Bulldog Sports Network (Paul Loeffler, Pat Hill, Cameron Worrell)

• Find it fast: 1400 AM in Visalia/Tulare; 1340 AM in Fresno; 1280 AM in Stockton; 970 AM in Bakersfield; 92.9 FM in Modesto; 96.7 FM in Fresno.

The records: Bulldogs 1-1, USC 2-0

The series: USC leads 4-1

Last meeting: USC won 31-23 at home in 2019

The line: USC minus-13