Fresno State stays in division title hunt with win over New Mexico. What are its chances?
Fresno State kept alive its chances of winning the West Division of the Mountain West Conference and playing in the championship game, beating New Mexico 34-7 at Bulldog Stadium on Senior Day Saturday.
The ‘Dogs are now 8-3 and 5-2 in conference play, and the road to the title game is clear. With San Diego State beating Nevada on Saturday 23-21 to get to 5-1, the Bulldogs will need to win at San Jose State on Thanksgiving Day. The Aztecs would need to lose one of their final two regular-season games.
The Wolf Pack is just about out of it with two conference losses and on the wrong side of head-to-head tiebreakers with the Bulldogs and Aztecs.
So, what are the Bulldogs’ chances to play for the conference title for the fifth time since 2013, when the Mountain West went to a divisional scheduling format?
San Diego State plays at UNLV and Boise State to close the regular season. The Rebels are just 2-8, but they have won two games in a row. The Broncos are 6-4, but they have won three games in a row and are likely to make it four with a game this week at home against the Lobos.
And, while past results do not guarantee future performance …
Since the Mountain West went to divisional play, the Bulldogs have advanced to the conference championship game in every season they have beaten San Diego State – 2013, ‘14, ‘17, and ‘18 – and Fresno State beat the Aztecs 30-20 three weeks ago.
The Aztecs have lost at least one of their final two regular-season games in each of the past three seasons and four of the past five.
San Diego State has just eight passing TDs, and Lucas Johnson, who has started the past four games for the Aztecs, has six.
San Diego State coach Brady Hoke is 12-21 in games played on or after Nov. 15 in two stints at San Diego State, as an interim coach at Tennessee, Michigan, and Ball State. That’s a .364 winning percentage.
The last time the Aztecs started a season 9-1, in 2016, they lost their final two conference games to finish 9-3.
UNLV doesn’t win many football games, but it has alternated losses and wins in its next to last game of the season since 2016, and if that pattern holds, it is due for a win on Saturday against the Aztecs.
Punting might be winning, but not often in the Mountain West. Only one team that averaged 6.0 punts per game made it to the conference championship game, and the Aztecs are averaging 6.1.
There might be only a puncher’s chance there for the Bulldogs, or perhaps slightly better.
But Fresno State and its fans have reason to root for UNLV, and in the final week of the regular season Boise State, if they can stomach it one day after taking down a turkey with all of the trimmings.
The Bulldogs’ main focus, though, should be San Jose State. The Spartans have lost two games in a row and are 5-6 and 3-4 in conference play. But the last time Fresno State went to San Jose over Thanksgiving weekend in the final week of the regular season and to play a team that needed to win to become bowl eligible, the Bulldogs lost.
That was 2013, and that Fresno State team led by Derek Carr and Davante Adams was 10-0 at the time.
This story was originally published November 14, 2021 at 8:24 AM.