Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Boise State: Checking a leaky pass defense, and things to watch
Boise State has not run the football well this season and doesn’t figure to against No. 25 Fresno State, a solid fourth in the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense. But the Bulldogs do have a potential problem on that side of the football, a combination of many things including game plan, matchups and some just plain bad luck.
All of a sudden, their pass defense seems to have sprung a leak.
Among the things to watch in this game, another must-win for the Bulldogs to remain in control of their destiny in the West Division race, are the Broncos’ wideouts Khalil Shakir, Stefan Cobbs and Octavius Evans matching up against the Fresno State pass defense and cornerbacks.
All three pose a danger, particularly Shakir, who has 49 receptions for 777 yards and four touchdowns and is second in the conference with an average of 97.1 receiving yards a game.
But go back three games and Fresno State was ranked second in the conference in passing defense. It is now eighth. A matchup against Nevada obviously can blow that up in a hurry, and quarterback Carson Strong threw the football 61 times in that game and hit a hard-to-believe 80.3% for 476 yards and four TDs with one interception.
That was the trade-off for the Bulldogs, who often rushed three and dropped eight into coverage, giving Strong ample space to find an open receiver at times while hoping those three down pass rushers and some well-timed blitzes coming from any angle imaginable would make just enough plays — and they did.
Fresno State won, 34-32.
But even San Diego State, which was ranked 11th in the conference in passing offense and had wideouts without much of anything on their resumes, became a problem for the Bulldogs.
The Aztecs, their run game stunted by the Fresno State front, threw the football a season-high 38 times. They hit only 17, but there were some big plays made outside with four passes going for between 15 and 19 yards and four more going for 20 or more yards, all of them to wideouts.
Elijah Kothe, who had seven receptions for 58 yards in the Aztecs’ first seven games, had four for 105 on plays of 19, 39, 16 and 31 yards. Tyrell Shavers had only six catches for 75 yards coming in, then had two for 39 with his first touchdown of the season and the second of his career.
Mekhi Shaw, a freshman, had two receptions for 21 yards against FCS Towson. Then, two for 21 against the Bulldogs. Jesse Matthews led San Diego State with 15 receptions coming in, and caught two passes for 39 yards including one for 29.
In the past two games, Fresno State has allowed 12 explosive pass plays of 20 or more yards and now ranks 10th in the Mountain West with 31 on the year.
That happened, almost out of nowhere.
To defensive coordinator William Inge, San Diego State was a one-game blip. “The biggest thing is making the play at the point of attack,” he said. “The good thing is, guys were there. We just have to continue to finish at the point of attack and that has been a major point of emphasis in practice this week.”
And, Fresno State has had games where opposing wideouts have had a tough time converting targets into completions. But this would be a good spot to get back to it, matching up against Boise State and quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who is a much more credible threat throwing the football than the Aztecs’ Lucas Johnson and is working with a talented set of wideouts.
Bachmeier is third in the Mountain West in passing behind Strong and the Bulldogs’ Jake Haener, and has hit 65% of his passes while averaging 275.5 yards per game with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions.
A challenge for the Red Wave
Boise State has played road games at UCF, at Utah State, at BYU and last week at Colorado State. There were 40,000-plus at the Bounce House in Orlando, Florida (43,928) and at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah (64,470). But the big crowds and crowd noise didn’t have much impact on the Broncos’ offense, which has been flagged only four times on the road this season for a false start, once in each game.
Fresno State on Saturday will have its first home sellout since 2014, and 40,727 fans can make a lot of noise. But can the Red Wave produce a more disruptive decibel level? It could have an impact.
The false start at UCF turned a first-and-10 into a first-and-15 and came on a drive that ended with an interception. The false start at Utah State turned a first-and-goal from the 7 into a first-and-goal from the 12, though Boise State ended up scoring a touchdown after getting a fresh start when the Aggies were called for a pass interference penalty.
The false start at BYU turned a third-and-4 into a third-and-9 and the drive ended with a field goal. And, the false start at Colorado State turned a second-and-10 into a second-and-15 on a drive that ended with a punt.
A TFL team, locked on target
It has been a while since Fresno State matched up against a truly balanced offense. San Diego State has a good run game, but is suspect passing it. Nevada is all pass and very little to no run. Wyoming is fairly blah at both, but much worse when throwing the football. Boise State may not even qualify – the Broncos are averaging just 2.6 yards per rush, though they did grind out a season-high 177 yards last week in a victory at Colorado State.
But they do at least have that potential, which puts the defensive line in play for Bulldogs, who have three players ranked in the top nine in the Mountain West in tackles for loss. No other team has more than one.
Tackle Kevin Atkins has 10.5 TFLs and is tied for third in the conference and tied for first among interior linemen.
Arron Mosby has 10.0 TFLs and is sixth and David Perales has 9.5, tied for seventh.
As a unit, the Bulldogs’ defensive linemen have racked up 38.5 tackles for loss – Leonard Payne Jr. has 4.5, Ryan Boehm has 2.5, Devo Bridges, Matt Lawson and Da’Marcus Johnson have 0.5 and Kwami Jones and Evan Bennett are no doubt on the hunt for one. That’s more TFLs than 21 teams in the nation have, including three in the Mountain West – Air Force has 38.0, Wyoming and UNLV 36.0.
But that position group will have a big impact on the outcome, playing the Broncos’ run and rushing Bachmeier.
Boise State is allowing 5.9 tackles for loss and 2.3 sacks per game, seventh in the Mountain West in both, so there is opportunity there for Atkins, Mosby, Perales and the Bulldogs’ down linemen.
It’s also worth noting that the Broncos are 17-1 when rushing for 100 or more yards since the 2018 Mountain West championship game when rushing for 225 yards in a loss to Fresno State.
Can ‘Dogs still hit the long ball?
Boise State has allowed 25 explosive pass plays of 20 or more yards and have given up a few long balls the past few weeks including three in its victory at Colorado State, and the Rams are not a team that bombs it down the field.
That should be an area the Bulldogs and quarterback Jake Haener might be able to exploit, but for one thing. After a hot run in the middle of the season, Haener and his deep threats have been missing quite a bit.
Against Cal Poly, Haener was 5 of 6 on passes 20 or more yards down the field, according to Pro Football Focus. At UCLA, he was 6 of 10. Against UNLV, 4 of 6. That’s 15 of 22, 68.2%.
But over the past three games Fresno State is just 3 of 19 including 2 of 12 last week in the win at San Diego State.
No. 25 Fresno State vs. Boise State
When: Saturday, 4 p.m.
Where: Bulldog Stadium
TV: CBS Sports Network (John Sadak, Aaron Murray, Lindsay Rhodes)
Find it fast: AT&T (Channels 643, 1643), Comcast (418, 732), DirecTV (221), Dish Network (158)
Radio: Bulldog Sports Network (Paul Loeffler, Pat Hill, Cameron Worrell)
Find it fast: Fresno (AM 1340), Bakersfield (AM 970), Visalia (AM 1130), Modesto (FM 92.9), Stockton (AM 1280), Bulldogs app, iHeartMedia app
The coaches: Kalen DeBoer (10-5 in second season), Andy Avalos (4-4 in first season)
The records: Fresno State 7-2, 4-1 in MW; Boise State 4-4, 2-2
The series: Boise State leads 15-7
Last meeting: Fresno State won 19-16 in OT in 2018
The line: Fresno State minus-5.5
Tickets: 559-278-DOGS or gobulldogs.com