For Bulldogs, close and late is not the place to be against San Diego State
San Diego State has played eight games in a row that have been decided by one score, eight points or less, and is 6-2 in those games, a quirky stat that could become more meaningful when Fresno State and the Aztecs play on Saturday night at Bulldog Stadium.
The eight-game run is the second-most of any team in the nation going back to 1980, and the Aztecs’ record is better than any other around them. Texas Tech played in nine games in a row that were decided by eight points or less in 1998 and was 5-4, and UCLA played in eight games in a row in 2000 and was 3-5.
Close and late, the Aztecs have been solid.
They also are 10-3 over their past 13 games decided by eight points or less, and that could be a problem for the Bulldogs if on Saturday the score is close as the third quarter turns into the fourth.
Breaking down the record
Fresno State under coach Jeff Tedford has most often won by blowout. Of its 18 wins, 15 have come in games the Bulldogs had a double-digit lead going into the fourth quarter and 11 have come with a lead of 20 or more points.
Then there are the two losses at Alabama and at Washington last season where the margin going into the final 15 minutes was not close.
The Bulldogs have been in games with the score tied going into the fourth quarter three times and had a lead or been down by a single score four times.
In those games, Fresno State is only 3-4.
Two of those losses have come this season, at Minnesota when down 10-7 going into the fourth quarter and at Boise State when up 17-10.
Tedford after the loss at Boise State balked at the suggestion that inexperience in close games was any factor in the outcome.
“No, no, no,” he said. “Our guys played hard right down to the end. It has nothing to do with that. Two good football teams, playing at their place, give them credit for what they did. It wasn’t because we couldn’t play in the fourth quarter.”
Statistical analysis
Fresno State’s numbers are not glaring, one way or the other.
Against Minnesota through three quarters:
Offense
- Rush: 21 for 67
- Pass: 16 of 23 for 101 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
- Yards per play: 3.8
Defense
- Rush: 31 for 90, 1 TD
- Pass: 11 for 20 for 131 yards
- Yards per play allowed: 4.3
Against Minnesota in the fourth quarter:
Offense
- Rush: 3 for 20
- Pass: 8 of 11 for 111 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
- Yards per play: 9.4
Defense
- Rush: 14 for 42, 1 TD
- Pass: 5 of 6 for 44 yards
- Yards per play allowed: 4.3
Against Boise State through three quarters:
Offense
- Rush: 21 for 95, 1 TD
- Pass: 14 of 19 for 168 yards, 1 TD
- Yards per play: 6.6
Defense
- Rush: 32 for 134
- Pass: 22 of 27 for 215 yards, 1 Int.
- Yards per play allowed: 5.9
Against Boise State in the fourth quarter:
Offense
- Rush: 7 for 12
- Pass: 10 of 16 for 115 yards
- Yards per play: 5.5
Defense
- Rush: 12 for 45, 2 TDs
- Pass: 2 of 3 for 54 yards, 1 TD
- Yards per play allowed: 6.6
Still, close and late probably is not where the Bulldogs want to be against San Diego State with that record, with a run game that can chew up yards on the ground and minutes off the game clock and with a kicker in John Baron II who has been the Mountain West Conference special teams player of the week five times and has range to 50 yards-plus.
Baron this season has hit 16 of 19 field goal attempts and is 4 of 4 from 50 or more yards, his longest kick 54 yards against Arizona State.
Time and TV
San Diego State (7-3, 4-2 Mountain West) at Fresno State (8-2, 5-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday at Bulldog Stadium, CBS Sports Network
This story was originally published November 14, 2018 at 3:48 PM.